Intrade: Obama back up over 50% regarding re-election.

[aaaaaa5a]

For all the doom and gloom on this board, the people who actually bet real money on the 2012 Presidential race give Obama a 51% chance to be re-elected.


Funny, I'm still waiting for the press reports and multiple threads within this forum on the topic.


Here is the link:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474


Here is how the top 3 candidates stack up.

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner
51.1%


Rick Perry to be elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner
19.0%


Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner
13.4%

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. K&R

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. Buy on the dips. n/t

[treestar]

3. If it said the opposite

The thread would already have hundreds of Rs and many more posts.

[Peacetrain]

4. Yep.. it will go up and down..

but glad to see this

[LetTimmySmoke]

5. The big purple people pleaser versus the crazy out of control GOP.

Great choice...

[oberliner]

6. This time in 2007 both Obama and McCain were under 10 percent

For what that is worth.

[Honeycombe8]

7. Not much, really. Neither was an incumbent Prez. Just sayin. nt

[oberliner]

8. Don't think Intrade numbers at this point are worth much

Do you?

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. October 1983 – Mondale leads Reagan by a 50% to 44%//October 1979 – Carter leads Reagan 48% to 42%

http://people-press.org/1995/10/30/ignore-the-horse-race-pay-attention-to-the-trend/

This is of course a Gallop poll - not Intrade which did not exist at the time. But it does show how much things can dramatically change over the course of a year.

If we look at what was happening at the time -this would tend to tell me that when incumbent presidents are facing an economic down turn or a perceived economic down turn they tend to become unpopular and lose. When incumbent presidents are facing an economic up turn or perceived economic up turn they tend to become popular and win. This has little to do with whether or not their policies are popular.