A fascinating look at why the House could swing back towards Dems in only two years.

[kpete]

Fresh off a major shift in power in the House, we might expect another volatile congressional election in 2012.

Here's why: this year, 25 races were decided by 3 percent or less in the major-party vote share (13 Democratic and 12 Republican) pending recounts and final vote totals. Another 30 were decided by three percent - eight percent (18 Democratic and 17 Republican). Forty-two more races were decided by just 8 percent - 12 percent (25 Democratic and 17 Republican).

So overall, 56 Democratic and 52 Republicans won with majorities of 56 percent or less, and those races comprise 23 percent of the entire House. Add the unpredictable effects of redistricting to the 2012 equation, and the prospect of a 4th straight election with a turnover of 20 or seats is plausible.

This adds to the recent history of swings: the 2006-2010 trend contravenes a pattern of little turnover and almost unanimous incumbent retention that marked the House contests from 1998-2004.

more:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20023172-503544.html?tag=contentMain;contentBody

[Freddie Stubbs]

1. Redistricting will likley make it harder for Democrats to make gains in 2012

Republicans made huge gains in state legislatures and pick up quite a few governorships. They will be drawing more districts than they have in 80 years.

[LiberalEsto]

2. Don't forget the top of the ticket

If President Obama continues to act as Capitulator-In-Chief, he might drag down the rest of the Democratic slate.

[Robbins]

3. Here Is the problem

Republicans picked up 60 seats In the House.While I have no doudt In 2012 with Obama voters voting
again and Independents seeing Speaker Bohener and the waste Darryl Witch Hunt Issacs Is about to
do will swing back towards Democrats.The chances of a 60 seat Democratic swing In 2012 Is very
small.while Democrats In 2012 will proballly pick up seats In the House In a better democratic
Year the size of Republican gains this year may help them hold the House for awhile.

[JamesA1102]

13. But they don't need to pick up 60 seats to regain the majority

Only about 25 or so.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. Republicans now have control of redistricting in most states...

this will mean a net gain for Republicans. I expect Kucinich to go down in 2 years because his district will be fixed. Then add that 20 Democrats in the Senate, plus two independents are in danger with only about 10 Republicans, it may not be a good year.

Historically, the top of the ticket does not always help.

I fully expect another waive election in 2012. I think it is too early to figure out which way the wave waves.

[Clio the Leo]

5. Redistricting: How The GOP Could Lose By Winning

Another interesting take on things from a right leaning source.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/11/redistricting-h.php

[Donnachaidh]

6. I would really like to see one of the worst in my state targeted for takedown

Tom Price from Georgia. He's Boehner's attack dog, and he's been spotted at Koch meetings. I went to Legistorm to check his record, and compared to the other critter from the area, he's done very little for his constituents. What he HAS been doing is going to repuke *retreats* - which means he's a shit-stirrer who is carrying the water of all the other bigger grunts in the rep party.

He needs to go -- soon.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. Redistricting could make this theory moot. n/t

[mikekohr]

8. The electorate will be approx. 15% larger, 10% younger, and 7% Browner

Democrats always do better when higher percentages of voters turn out. The under 30 crowd is voting Democrat by about a 60% to 40% margin and our Hispanic, Native and Black brothers and sisters will support our candidtes because we support them.

mike kohr
Bureau County Democrats
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com

[veganlush]

9. K&R n/t.

[dsc]

10. redistricting will be a problem

in NC they surely can knock of Kissel if they so choose and might be able to knock of McIntyre too. They do have to shore up Elmers provided she holds on to her win over Ethridge (very likely). I agree with the article mentioning that to attack Schuler they have to weaken either McHenry or Foxx and neither one will allow that to happen. I think Schuler is likely safe. If they go the aggressive route they will attack McIntyre not Schuler.

[Marsala]

11. The GOP will probably keep the House, but they may lose a lot of seats

Wave elections may become the norm instead of exceptions.

[KeyserSoze87]

12. It is certainly possible that Democrats could win back the house in 2012.

It may seem hopeless right now for Dems, but we're not finished yet. While 2010 has been a good year for the GOP, I have a feeling that 2012 will not be. In fact, I actually think 2012 will be a total disaster for Republicans. If Obama can continue to improve the economy, then the GOP is going to get pounded, at least in the presidential election.