Are we hanging too much hope on the "cell phone" vote?

[CTyankee]

I remember that from 2004. It was my "candle in the wind" of hope for John Kerry. I argued it ferociously everywhere I could. I was wrong.

Please, if there is evidence that the cell phone voters are a real force that could sway this election, that is fine...and I am with you!

But if it is just an idle wish, please don't do this to me another time! I am done on false hopes. I'd rather just face the fate that will come, but I will still be a DEM!!!

[Clio the Leo]

Well, there ARE more cell phone users than there were in 2004...

.... but if you want the straight up, what is LIKELY to happen is the GOP will take the house but not the Senate. That is the conventional wisdom ATM ... but even the conventional wizards concede, at this point, no one knows for certain what the margins will be.

I think GOP will underperform .... taking the House but not by a huge margin. But that's just my gut feeling after eating/breathing this stuff non stop for weeks.

[CTyankee]

4. I am just wondering if this is our "comfort food" for thought here!

Having heard the same rhetoric in 2004 I am somewhat leery. I acknowledge that there are more cell phone users now and that more people have given up their land line phones for cell phones. I am just wondering if that makes the difference in any given race...my guess is that we just don't know and the cell phone vote is something we cannot predict...so it is wrong to ascribe it to one party or another...

[Clio the Leo]

16. well, the one wet blanket on the cell phone theory....

.... is that Gallup polls cell phones.

[warrior1]

1. that's because

the stole the vote in Ohio.

[CTyankee]

9. But we just couldn't pull off proving it! I remember arguing that one too.

I spent the winter of 2005 in a state of denial about W's re-election. If it weren't for Stephanie Miller's show on the radio I would have been in pretty bad shape. She had me laughing during some very dark days that winter of 2005 until spring...

[stray cat]

2. Yes - DU thought all the polls were wrong in 2004 - but it was only the exit polls

[lisa58]

3. No, I'm hanging on it just the right amount....

...30 and under cannot be polled...I saw them on the mall in DC this weekend...they vote.

[CTyankee]

6. but we don't know, that's the point. It's just not reliable because of that.

If it turns out that this is the case and the Dems win despite the polls, then we'llhave some hard data to work with. Until then, I can only wish it so...and that hasn't turned out well in so many past elections I've gone thru...

[Kennah]

5. Maybe I too am a foolish optimist ...

... and I voted early and straight Democratic. I want to believe the cell phone vote is just lurking, and it is logical to conclude the cell phone vote will climb throughout the years. How soon exactly? I just dunno.

Vote early and vote Democratic. If the country collectively decides to dip itself in tea tomorrow, then we can start talking about coping strategies for the next two years on Wednesday--or whenever all of the 2010 election battles are resolved.

But in the meantime, vote. Vote early. Vote Democratic.

[CTyankee]

7. I hope you are right. I hope this is the year the pundits will call "The Great Cell Phone Vote"

year!!!

Don't worry. I'm voting tomorrow, with hubby, both of us straight Dem ticket, as always.

[KoKo]

8. It seems our Dems are feeling it's valid to hang on to it. TPM has up there that

Josh Marshall thinks this is the last election that WILL NOT INCLUDE CELL PHONE VOTES into Polling.

Josh is younger than I am....so I think he's onto something with what he says. Whether it works for THIS PARTICULAR ELECTION...or NOT...I don't know. But, I think Josh has Nailed it as a "Watch" for the "Future." :shrug:

[CTyankee]

11. Thanks for that nugget of information. It's one that the pollsters will watch.

I hope that the cell phone vote WILL matter and be counted somehow in future elections. And I hope it will change the outcome that is predicted for this one!

Here's to hope! :toast:

[KoKo]

15. Agree... Hope is what we have!

:hug: but... if it doesn't work out...we don't give up... either!

[Jennicut]

18. Well, most of my friends my age don't have a landline or have one but

spend most of their time using a cell phone. I am 34. I imagine it is really prevalent with those even younger then me, the twentysomethings. Lots of texting all the time and some don't even answer their calls. Two generations of lost people, they are hard to get in contact with. Can't get in touch with a lot of thirty and twenty somethings unless you text. My husband texts 24/7.

I think in the future, it will be very important. But in this election, it depends on if younger people will turn out. Are the 18 to 34 year olds going to get out there and vote?

[Hello_Kitty]

10. I have only a cellphone and I've been polled twice. eom

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. Who cares?

Work the phones, walk the precincts.

It's too late now to do anything else.

[Coexist]

13. Olbermann and Co. are predicting much doom and gloom

70 seats was put out there. I am preparing myself for the worst.

[Jackpine Radical]

14. But you weren't wrong about Kerry.

Only a corrupted vote in 2 or 3 states cost hm the Presidency.

The first exit polls were right until they were "adjusted" to conform with the crooked voting machines.

[zbdent]

17. I have no doubt that I have helped skew some polls ...

my answering machine had plenty of calls like this (after my "please leave a message" prompt - I quit identifying myself by name):

"May I speak to (zbdent)? ... (pause) ... hello? ... <click>"

" ... <click>"

"Hello, is (zbdent) there? ... <click>"

never a name, business name, phone number, or reason for me to pick up the phone. Friends and family are aware of the physical impairments of Mrs. ZBDent, and know that she can't run to the phone. I've had far too many telemarketers ... and the people who harassed us after LTTEs appeared have stopped once I had the numbers recorded and the police informed.