Who thinks the "enthusiasm gap" is real?

[pstokely]

Any evidence besides polls?

[Skittles]

1. I think it is real because I don't know a lot of Dems enthused to be voting

but they ARE voting so I'm not too sure about the effects of the enthusiasm gap

[tridim]

2. The media just made it up.

At the request of the GOP.

[raven42]

4. not sure about the enthusiasm gap,

but the problems is with the independents. Most of these national polls show them breaking heavily in the republicans favor. That's where the problem lies. Apparently these people have such short attention spans that they've already forgotten about all the damage done by the last republican congress. Or maybe a lot of them are just closet republicans anyhow.

[Eric Condon]

36. +1,000,000

When people claim to be "independent" 99% of the time it's bullshit*. These people have the attention span of fruit flies and epitomize "mile wide and an inch deep" support. These are the people who were fine with Bu$hCo illegal wars, torture, Patriot Act etc for years, but when their McMansions got foreclosed on, suddenly it was time to throw the bums out, totally oblivious to the fact that THEY had let it happen for years. And we've seen how well they've learned from this, because they're going to vote for Repukes again this year.


*I realize that not everyone here necessarily is happy with the Democratic Party all the time. My point is not about people who don't claim party affiliation, but rather, people who aren't entrenched Republicans but who actually entertain the idea of voting for Republicans.

[LawnLover]

3. It's complete bullshit

The media has been saying this for nearly a year now. People usually get enthusiastic about voting about two days before the polls open.

[Duchess]

5. I think the gap (if there is one)

will be those who aren't democrats but voted democrat in the last election. Many of them won't vote or will vote republican/independent this time around. Anecdotally, I have quite a few friends who voted for Obama but aren't really interested in voting this time. They don't think it really matters and they only really voted last time because they were excited for one reason or another - they didn't vote because they wanted change or cared about a healthy democracy - they voted for the same reason they wore slap bracelets in the 2nd grade.

I also have some friends that are more worried about this election than the last and definitely plan to vote...but they would vote no matter what.

We'll see how it turns out on Tuesday.

[Skittles]

10. um.....Duchess?

it's Democrat with a captital D - and we vote Democratic

[Duchess]

11. sorry...

I didn't capitalize republican or independent either. Thanks for the correction.

[Skittles]

17. I don't capitalize republican, because they deserve zero respect

but....still hanging on to hope for Democrats :D

[Knight Hawk]

15. Yes

Good analysis.That is what I am picking up PLUS many people who are angry about a number of things and are voting against anyone in office ,which hurts the demos more.

[HughMoran]

22. That's it in a nutshell

The reality of which we almost never talk about here - the huge number of casual/popularity based voters. My boss is a lesbian, yet she told me she is registered as a Republican "because that's what everybody does". :wtf: :eyes: She went on to say that she's probably a Democrat, but doesn't vote anyway. :eyes: There are millions more like this. Uggh - we really are a nation of lazy ass holes.

[pstokely]

23. Did she/Who did she vote for 2 years ago?

Is she voting on Tuesday?

[Duchess]

27. Yes...

but to be fair - any individual vote is statistically insignificant. The candidates to choose from often have significant differences but sometimes in some races they are all just different shades of gray. So, I can see how one might decide not to wait in line or make the trek to a voting station just to place a statistically insignificant ballot for slate gray who is in competition against dim gray (It might even be gray vs. grey).

I'm less concerned with people that don't vote and more concerned with people that regularly vote and act as if voting is their only civic responsibility. A person that doesn't vote but helps the community in some way is making a much more significant contribution than someone who works for a campaign and votes but does little else for the community between election cycles.

Votes count but the impact is small compared to other ways of contribution.

[Arkana]

6. It's largely crap , and the "evidence" for it is a bunch of likely voter models

that haven't been updated since before the Berlin Wall fell.

[Pab Sungenis]

7. It's real, whether you want to believe it or not.

And it's no longer enough for us to begrudgingly hold our nose and vote Democratic, we've been told that we have to vote enthusiastically or we're not welcome.

And people wonder why there's an enthusiasm gap.

[DFLforever]

14. If it exists, it doesn't exist everywhere.

Pollsters haven't detected any in my state (MN) but then our unemployment rate for September was 7% seasonally adjusted.

[Botany]

8. made up bullshit

just like:

there were WMDs in Iraq
it was the State & Locals Response to Katrina that was the problem
it was people who were worried about gays getting married and the Amish that turned out to vote in Ohio '04 that put W over the top
other countries thought Sadam was linked to al Qaeda and he was building a nuclear bomb
John Kerry was a coward in Vietnam despite 3 purple hearts, a bronze star, and a silver star
all the spying and phone taps were to keep us save from terror
all the current economic problems and the size of the debt is the fault of Obama, Reid, & Pelosi
Sonia Sotomayor & Kagan did not have enough experience to sit on the Supreme Court
The Tea Parties are independent grass root movements
George W Bush kept us safe after 9/11
China is not sending tens of millions of dollars to help republicans win so they can keep stealing US jobs
Sarah Palin really wrote her book
Fox News is fair and balanced
It was Dan Rather's fault that W went AWOL
Obama's stimulus package failed
W stopped drinking
Al Franken has been a failure .... you know best selling writer, SNL (Producer, Writer, Actor Director) all his movies, great marriage & kids, US Senator
ACORN's work helped to bus in poor people who voted illegally for $20.00 and some beer
I have to stop now .... i could go on and on

1 more:
W didn't have a mic in his ear feeding him answers during his debate w/ Kerry



o.k. last one:
Rush Limbaugh didn't fly down to the Dominican Republic to screw little boys in the butt.

[Mass]

9. It is real, because the media have told us so often that we were going to lose big that we are

depressed. Hell, I am.

But this is not the question. The question is to know who will show up at the poll. If the Tea party people who normally do not vote show up, we will lose big.

If, on the contrary, they dont really show up and Democrats have a decent turnout, we will have a moderately bad night. We will not gain any seat, probably, but we will limit the loss, with a chance to keep control of the House and the Senate.

This is why this is really turnout.

[Botany]

12. wrong

"If the Tea party people who normally do not vote show up, we will lose big."

> 90% those teabaggers voted in 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000, .....

The idea that the tea party is a brand new party of new voters is just one more b.s. story fed to us by
a media that does the bidding of the rich and powerful.

[kentuck]

13. I don't think the Repubs are that enthusiastic but...

...I think the Dems are even less enthusiastic. Why? Many reasons but no need to dwell on it.

[Misskittycat]

16. I've been canvassing and there's no enthusiasm gap here (CA-50th; N. San Diego)

[onenote]

18. its real in my district

Where the number of lawn signs for our Democratic candidate is a mere fraction of what it was 2 years ago. I hope/think he will still pull it out, but its going to be a lot lot closer than it was 2 years ago against the same opponent.

[Unvanguard]

19. "Any evidence besides polls?"

:eyes:

[Duchess]

20. I don't think polls are very accurate either...

They do give the 24 hour media something to talk about and they give us a topic of discussion for multiple threads.

So, there's that.

[onenote]

29. did you think they weren't accurate when they were projecting Democratic victories

Did you think that the media was gaming them to fire up Democrats and depress repubs in 2008?

Certainly, any poll should be scrutinized for bias. But the polls this year, from a wide range of sources, have consistently forecast major losses for Democrats. Its not really that surprising. In the last four years, Democrats picked up over 50 seats, so that's a lot of places that have elected repubs in the past that are inherently vulnerable.

Consider the following: in the 8 Congressional elections starting with the debacle of 1994, the repubs have captured a majority 6 times, the Democrats twice. Averaged over those 16 years, the Democrats have had 217 seats, and the repubs 218 -- a nearly even split.

So the notion that the pendulum is swinging back against us this election isn't really that shocking or evidence of some polling bias. In the end, I hope we can do well enough that the repubs have no more (and hopefully significantly less) of a majority than they had just 6 years ago. We came back from that, and we can come back from this.

[and-justice-for-all]

21. I find it to be M$M sorcery..nt

[Milo_Bloom]

24. Very real.

[Imajika]

25. Yes, it's real..

It's not that Democrats are so depressed, it's that Republicans are insanely fired up.

ALL of them will be at the polls. We may get our regular voters out, but not the marginally interested.

Another problem for us is, even if there turns out to be no enthusiasm gap we are losing independents.

[Cosmocat]

26. that is not an inaccuratelassessment ...

Rs are red hot, no doubt ... You are also right that we are bleeding some independents ...

However, we still hold a larger margin of potential voters, and there is a marked over estimation of how "depressed" the Ds are ... There also is no consideration of GOTV ...

Someone had a post in this string that notes the MSMs LONG history over the decade where they have drummed up utter bullspit on behalf of the Rs ... This has been trumped up for FAR too long, they have been calling this election in mass since pretty much the day after the 08 elections ...

We will see, but there just is a real sense that the narrative is driving the "analysis." These fruckwads WANT this to be the way it is so bad, it just is clear ...

I have always said the Rs were going to push back hard here, and there is no debating they are going make big gains ... But, there is a lot that lies between 25-30 seats in the house and 50-60 ...

Again, the Dems had something like a 52 to 47 margin in 06 to get 31 seats ... What they are predicting would take like a 54 to 45 or worse turnout ...

It is not going to be THAT bad ...

[JoePhilly]

28. Its a media creation intended to get moderate Dems to stay home.

The declarations of this "gap" started more than a year ago. The corporations create Tea Parties, the Dems have no similar events ... declare the GAP. Repeat, Repeat, Repeat.

[onehandle]

30. Me. DU is looking through rose colored glasses.

'Any evidence besides polls?'

That very question illustrates my point. Polls are overwhelmingly in the right direction for the most part, but we want to believe otherwise.

Sorry.

[PurityOfEssence]

31. I do

Although I live in a pleasantly lefty enclave of Los Angeles, I get around and have lots of friends and business associates in many industries and of many political and religious bents. Lefties are very disillusioned with Obama, and many of us never expected much in the first place. The problem is the subgroup who really pinned unreachable hopes on this operation: they're depressed.

It's human nature: ya light the pitchforks and march with zeal when there's a simplistic enemy, not when your chosen leader keeps reminding you that the village monster is actually an okay kinda guy. So he kills a few peasants now and then; we can still find common ground...

The media overblows things that are there. Whether it's going to be the drubbing they thirst for or not is another question, but this isn't just conjured up out of nothing.

[PurityOfEssence]

32. I do. Their leaders hate us, while ours refuse to call reactionaries out for what they are

Although I live in a pleasantly lefty enclave of Los Angeles, I get around and have lots of friends and business associates in many industries and of many political and religious bents. Lefties are very disillusioned with Obama, and many of us never expected much in the first place. The problem is the subgroup who really pinned unreachable hopes on this operation: they're depressed.

It's human nature: ya light the pitchforks and march with zeal when there's a simplistic enemy, not when your chosen leader keeps reminding you that the village monster is actually an okay kinda guy. So he kills a few peasants now and then; we can still find common ground...

The media overblows things that are there. Whether it's going to be the drubbing they thirst for or not is another question, but this isn't just conjured up out of nothing.

[depakid]

33. Was it real in 1994?

I guess we'll see Tuesday night and in the following days whether it pans out as before.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I Will Tell You On Tuesday

~

[Odin2005]

35. It's BS.

[Blue_In_AK]

37. I don't know about anywhere else,

but it sure isn't real here. EVERYBODY'S fired up, from left to right. If all the sound and fury is any indication, we'll have a huge turnout.

[sally cat]

38. No, we're just more quiet and laid back.