Illinois Dems Optimistic: DNC early voting analysis suggests Democratic edge

[book_worm]

Illinois Democrats are heading into the final weekend before the Tuesday election optimistic about the chances for Senate contender Alexi Giannoulias and Gov. Quinn based on an analysis of early voting turnout in Illinois by the Democratic National Committee. The early voting turnout is coming from Chicago and Cook County, according to the DNC, Democratic strongholds. With the Illinois governor and Senate contest a toss-up in most polls, turnout is the key. President Obama headlines a rally in Hyde Park on Saturday for the Democratic Illinois

So far, 298,113 Illinois voters have cast ballots including 174,739 Democrats (58.6% of those who have voted so far) and 83,166 Republicans (27.9%). (Note: Illinois does not have party registration, so Democrats are defined as those who have voted in a Democratic primary and Republicans are defined as those who have voted in a Republican primary.)


· Cook County is the most Democratic county in the state, and Cook County is voting at one of the highest rates of any county in the state. While only 38.5% of all registrants are from Cook County, 43.5% of all ballots cast so far are from Cook County.


· In fact, there are more Democratic primary voters from Cook County who have already voted than there are Republican primary voters who have already voted in the entire state of Illinois. This is despite the fact that Cook County makes up only 38.5% of registered voters and 43.5% of those who have voted so far.


· According to the latest DNC modeling analysis incorporating today's early vote returns, Giannoulias leads by more than 6 points among those who have already voted, and this lead has been growing since early voting began in Illinois two weeks ago.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2010/10/illinois_democrats_optimistic.html

[pstokely]

1. Are there any close house races there?

nt

[mopinko]

2. yes

10- dan seals bid for mark kirk's seat is the biggest. deb halvorsen in 3 will probably also be a squeaker. there are a few more where dems are trying hard to turn red districts.
the big one is the gov, tho, and i am not sure this early voting will help him. lots of chicago area dems are voting green- rich whitney for gov. (minority neighborhoods will likely go quinn, in no small part do to an "error" that caused rich to be listed as rich whitey on machines in minority neighborhoods. things that make go hmmmm. well not really, but...)

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. A few days ago I posted on the crowds in the Chicago early voting locations

Packed across the city.

The Dems here are energized.

Obama's in Hyde Park today for a rally, too.

[pstokely]

4. But what about the rest of the state

in the house races

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. To fulfill your dream of a GOP House for punishing Blue Dogs?

Don't know.

Do your own research, Question Man.