My look at the 2010 Senate races

[WI_DEM]

As of today based on polls, election trends, anecdotal evidence this is where I see the race for control of the US Senate:

Safe/Likely Dem: Hawaii, NY (Schumer), NY (Gillibrand), MD, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, West Virginia

Leaning Dem: WA, CT

Safe/Likely GOP: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, KS, ND, OK, SC, SD, UT, IA, LA, IN, Arkansas

Leaning GOP: FL, KY, MO, OH, PA, NC, Alaska

Toss-up: IL, NV, CA, CO, WI (need to see more polls than RAS), NH

Note:
If most polls show race is five points or less I tend to put in toss-up. If most polls show race 6-10 then I put in leaning category. Above ten I see as safe/solid. Alaska, is currently in leaning but that is just based on election history. We haven't seen any recent polling out of the state. I think Dems have an opportunity in Alaska but can't prove it.

So far I have Dems gaining NO GOP Senate seats.

I have GOP candidates leading in North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, PA (though I think this one has the potential to get a lot tighter)--for a net gain of four seats.

I have six states as pure toss-ups--IL (most recent poll a GOP survey out last night gives Kirk a 3-point lead, but lots of undecideds--more dems than republicans), NV (tight, Reid up in a couple by 2-points, Angle up by a point in another) CA (Boxer is up by a few points in most of the polling--2-3 points), CO (GOP candidate up by about 4-5 in most recent polls), Wisconsin (right now I'm keeping as a toss-up despite the new RAS poll out showing Feingold down by 7--I want to see the PPP poll that will come out next week), and New Hampshire (it is tightening PPP has Hodes down by only 4 and even Ras has him gaining significant ground, but still down by 7, so he just made by list of toss ups.

So I currently have the GOP with a net gain of four seats. Of the toss-ups 5 have Dem senators (CA, IL, NV, WI, CO) and 1 has a GOP senator (NH). If the GOP won all the toss-ups they would still wind up with a net gain of 9 seats and they need 10 to win control. I also have PA and KY as leaning GOP, but I still think these two states could become very competitive.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. I think Safe/Likely Dem and GOP plus Leaning Dem will go as indicated. The Leaning GOP

are all viable targets.

FL-hate see Rubio win, but as long as it's 3-way that's the outcome. Crist is still viable.
KY-Conway is a quality candidate. With some work, and if enough Kentucky Democrats come to their senses he can make it.
PA-It's a blue state. Biden and Clinton (Bill) could help turn this one around. Bound to at least tighten.
NC-had hopes for the "cursed" seat to flip, but doesn't look like it's in the cards unless a surprising shift.
AK-this one just might have surprise potential. Miller is a horrible candidate, and the phonyness just might do him in. have to respect some of the local sentiment that McAdams has a shot. GOP really putting the heat on Murkowski indicates they're worried.
CA-convinced Boxer has latent strength that will materialize. Nate gives her 57.8% win.
WI-similar to CA. I think it will break for Feingold. Nate gives him 67% win.

[GSLevel9]

2. pretty much right on...

of your toss-ups,

IL, NV, CA, CO, WI (need to see more polls than RAS), NH

probably 3/6 go to the Pugs. Net gain for Pubs 6 seats. Dems hold Senate for 2 more years of bitter debate and gridlock.

[tritsofme]

3. I mostly agree. However I think WV could tighten considerably.

Even though Manchin is an incredibly popular governor, you can't overlook the fact Obama only received 42% of the WV vote in 2008, and his numbers have only declined since then. Perhaps Manchin's personal popularity will overcome the toxicity of the national party in the state, but I don't expect him to blow Raese out of the water.

Also I think now that Ayotte has wrapped up her nomination in NH, she is the favorite for that seat.

[WI_DEM]

could be--if a wave it could be lost--hopefully Manchin is fighting hard.

[WI_DEM]

4. could be--if a wave it could be lost--hopefully Manchin is fighting hard.

[DrSteveB]

5. Your analysis is good and realistic; therefore it won't make it to the greatest thread page

Yesterday the Greatest Thread was one "analysis" by a name-less internet blogger pretending we can "flip 10 seats".