Why is Fiorina ahead of Boxer in California ?

[steve2470]

* Fiorina leads Boxer, 47 percent to 42 percent

* Results show Boxer losing support among independents
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1217396920100812

Is it the Tea Party/anti-incumbent craze ?

on edit: My bad, I did not see this thorough discussion in LBN
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4502141

[saltpoint]

1. I'm not persuaded that she is.

Boxer will win.

[Kdillard]

2. Damn that is not good. The other polls had shown Boxer leading.

I will be very disappointed if Boxer lost. We will have to see how the next few polls shake out and see which ones are correct. It says she is losing Men, young voters and independents so she needs to do some reaching out there.

[Bitwit1234]

3. Polls are OK but I always say

how do you know the people you poll represent the PEOPLE YOU POLL. After all there may be hundreds of thousands who are going to vote for Boxer and not give the Fiorina a nod. People in California are not crazy yet. It is still a Democratic state.

[Ex Lurker]

4. Things haven't gotten appreciably better for a lot of people since the last election

the incumbent gets blamed. The Democrats had their chance to actually do something and fumbled it away. Now they're going to pay the price.

[Clio the Leo]

5. Because we're too busy fighting each other to fight the GOP. nt

[KingFlorez]

6. SurveyUSA polls have been heavily Republican leaning this year

Even Rasmussen has had Boxer leading and we all know how they lean, so this one I wouldn't put a lot of stock in. The poll has Fiorina getting 27% of the black vote and that's not realistic, especially in California.

[Kdillard]

7. 27 % of the black vote is definitely suspicious. I will be more

convinced if other polls show a change.

[Ter]

8. Fiorina is no Tea Bagger

They are holding their noses and voting for her.

[totodeinhere]

9. Boxer has never been that popular in California, and she has lucked out with weak opponents in the

past. I still think she will win. She has a lot of money in the bank and has not gone heavily on TV yet, but she will. This just goes to show how tough it is for incumbents in this election cycle.

[IndianaGreen]

10. All the polls show we lost the independents

Neither party can win an election without winning lots of independent voters.

[mnhtnbb]

11. A friend of mine sat next to Boxer on a flight to DC recently. Boxer says

she is confident--but what would you expect her to say--that she'll pull this thing out.