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Nate Silver: As Liberals Lose Hope, the White House is Losing Its Cool

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:40 PM
Original message
Nate Silver: As Liberals Lose Hope, the White House is Losing Its Cool
Lord knows I've had my share of disagreements with the "professional left", as Press Secretary Robert Gibbs derisively referred to them in a rant to The Hill this morning. And I tend to endorse Jonathan Cohn's view that Obama has had a reasonably accomplished first year-and-a-half in office that perhaps has been taken for granted by some liberals.

But if there is a gulf between what Obama has accomplished and the amount of credit that some liberals are willing to give him for it, it just became much wider today with Gibbs statements like "those people ought to be drug tested" and "they wouldn’t be satisfied if Dennis Kucinich was president". ne problem that Obama is having -- and not just on the left, although it might be most acute there -- is the dissonance between the grand, poetic narratives of the campaign trail and the prosaic and transactional day-to-day grind of governance.

To some extent, this is intrinsic to the nature of the respective activities. Still, for the 70 million who voted for Obama, there was a sense that -- after a difficult eight years for a country challenged by two wars, two recessions, Hurricane Katrina, and the worst act of terrorism in history -- things might finally start to be different. That change had come. That progress was happening. That politics were becoming more elevated. A black man had just received 365 electoral votes, for crying out loud!

The euphoric feeling among liberals in the days between the election and the inauguration seems so quaint now -- like something that happened decades ago -- but it was very tangible at the time. Conservatives, for their part, were willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt, with his approval and favoability ratings sometimes soaring into the 70s: such a post-election "bounce" had once been commonplace in the days of Eisenhower and Kennedy, but had rarely been seen in the post-Watergate era.

But Obama was never really able to capitalize on that momentum. Perhaps, in the face of the headwinds of an ever-deepening jobs crisis (far worse than his advisors had anticipated) and unrepentant Republican obstructionism (a canny, even ballsy strategy in retrospect), there was no way he really could have.

Nevertheless, I suspect that for most liberals, any real sense of progress has now been lost.

...Meanwhile, the White House has had two incredibly cynical moments in the past several weeks -- Gibbs' rant today and the premature firing of Shirly Sherrod three weeks ago. Both reflected politics at its worst, the clumsiest possible efforts at "triangulation".

I am taking it for granted, of course, that Gibbs's comments today will prove not to be a cagey political strategy: they were so naked and inartful, such a Velveeta attempt at Sister Souljah moment, that I don't see how they possibly could be. They will annoy the left but do nothing to placate Obama's critics on the right or persuade those in the center.

...I don't know whether Gibbs was going "off-message" out of frustration, or whether the White House has become so jaded that they actually think this was a good strategy. Either way, it speaks to the need for some fresh blood and some fresh ideas in the White House. The famously unflappable Obama is losing his cool.

More: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/08/as-liberals-lose-hope-white-house-is.html
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nate's a smart guy and he has all kinds of instruments
to run polls just about any time he wants.

If he ran one now I think he'd reach a conclusion that Obama has not "lost his cool."

Also I think the level of Democratic activism at the county org level remains high, and focused, and possibly more successful than the Republicans think it's going to be this fall. That remains to be seen, of course, but Nate's own polling is going to be interesting to watch.
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Skittles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. they're fuckups
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PassingFair Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. These comments are a CLEAR indicator of how Progressives are
belittled by this administration.

Never mind that the Progressive Caucus is the largest
in Congress.

Imagine the disrespect THEY have been enduring!
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. For a numbers cruncher, this is a pretty trite article by Nate
Nevertheless, I suspect that for most liberals, any real sense of progress has now been lost. Yes, the left got a good-but-not-great health care bill, a good-but-not-great stimulus package, a good-but-not-great financial reform plan: these are a formidable bounty, and Obama and the Democratic Congress worked hard for them. But they now read as a basically par-for-the-course result from a time when all the stars were aligned for the Democrats -- rather than anything predictive of a new direction, or of a more progressive future. In contrast, as should become emphatically clear on November 2nd, the reversion to the mean has been incredibly swift.

What liberals haven't had, in other words, is very many opportunities to feel good about themselves, or to feel good about the future. While the White House has achieved several wins, they have never been elegant or emphatic, instead coming amidst the small-ball banality of cloture vote after cloture vote, of compromise after compromise.


To quote Ruth Marcus: "Excuse me, but can these people not count to 60? "




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izquierdista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. How to count to 60
51
51 + 1 extra
51 + 2 extra
51 + 3 extra
51 + 4 extra
51 + 5 extra
51 + 6 extra
51 + 7 extra
51 + 8 extra
51 + 9 extra

I believe that's how Bill Frist used to count when he was passing stuff.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. That sure describes the public option fail
Edited on Tue Aug-10-10 10:24 PM by depakid
err... sell out deal with the ever so popular insurance industry.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. How to count to 60
Edited on Tue Aug-10-10 10:27 PM by ProSense
for the stimulus bill: 58 members of the Democratic caucus + ?


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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. No worries then!
Thank God!!! :thumbsup:
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think it was frustration on the part of Gibbs. But I also think that at this point, Bill Burton
would make a way better Press Secretary. They only last about two years on average anyway. After all, just how much does one want to interact with the media day after day?
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Lost4words Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks for posting & the link!
:hi:

professional south paw!
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
9. There's your problem right there.....
Edited on Tue Aug-10-10 10:31 PM by FrenchieCat
"But if there is a gulf between what Obama has accomplished and the amount of credit that some liberals are willing to give him for it."

That fucking stinks.

Can't get credit for nothing ever.
Only negativity all of the time.
And then folks are suprised there's a lack of enthusiasm,
when the only things that folks read and hear about is negativity.

I predicted this a long time ago.....
and folks just responded that they were holding the Prez feet to the fire....
now the house is fucking burning down, and the critics will blame that
on the President too.

Now, that's artful!
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. The problem is exactly the opposite
Edited on Tue Aug-10-10 10:45 PM by depakid
as Robert Borosage points out:

The left hasn't been a rebel; it's been too good a soldier.

Amazing that the White House would be upset at carping from the Beltway left which has embarrassed itself by its willingness to absorb insult and salute.

Women rallied to support a health care bill that weakened choice.

Progressives supported the bill despite the president's unwillingness to fight for a public option, the taxes on good (read union) health care plans, and the grotesque deal with drug companies to sustain the ban on Medicare getting bulk price discounts.

Environmentalists went so far as to embrace off-shore drilling in the failed effort to get the energy bill.

Black leaders like Al Sharpton argued against any targeted economic programs, even as the African-American community was suffering depression levels of misery in the economic collapse.

The antiwar movement gave the president a pass on Afghanistan. Gay people have been remarkably patient at delay in repealing the indefensible don't-ask-don't-tell policy.

Progressives pushed financial reform hard, even after the Treasury Department helped defeat amendments to break up the big banks and more.

More: http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2010083210/gibbs-left-dog-bites-man

Your guru and the right wing he's embraced have time and again put forth ineffective half measures, preemptive concessions- and even adopted Republican policies- and rather assert their power to block them, progressives swallowed their principles and went along with the extortion.

And the insults.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Many on the Left; in particular the Professional Left started shitting on Obama on Day one.....
Please.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-11-10 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. The record shows the reverse to be true
Obama started shitting on progressives immediately after securing the nomination.

If you don't recall how, I can elaborate many instances for you.

Some of which surprised even me- which wasn't easy, since I followed the guy's Senate career rather closely from the outset.
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Political Tiger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-10-10 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
13. I think Nate is reading way too much into this.
Only in the political blogosphere is this huge story or even a story at all. Most American's could not care less what Robert Gibbs said to The Hill.
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ProgressOnTheMove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-11-10 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
16. The simple story is Pres. Obama goes down we all go down very fast, with little way back...
Edited on Wed Aug-11-10 12:21 AM by ProgressOnTheMove
Send a message sure great, how did that work out in MA and subsequent bills that would of passed to help business and the out of work, well it worked out very badly. Times that by 10 if we lose Congress and that's a whole world of hurt literally. It's bigger than Gibbs or Sherrod it's surefire highway to hell if the congress goes republican.
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