President Obama's Poll Numbers

[Steely_Dan]

President Obama's Poll numbers have been dropping. Of course, this is a concern because it may be an indication of things to come for Dems overall.

I've been arguing with my RW "friend" concerning these numbers. He obviously feels that it is due to Obama's "socialist" agenda that is being rejected by the American people. While I agree that the RW has successfully convinced its base that President Obama is everything from a Marxist to a baby killer I don't think that is the full reason for the drop.

I told my RW "friend" that it is actually the Progressives who are disappointed in the fact that Mr. Obama has not fulfilled their expectations on many fronts.

Anyway...What do think has been the greatest negative impact on Obama's numbers? Is it the RW talking points or is it disappointed progressives? Or both?

Regardless...It is my greatest concern that almost from every corner the electorate is not happy.

-P

On Edit: Yes, I understand that the numbers drop for those in office usually at this point.
On Edit: Yes, their are supporters of Obama who are to be commended for "keeping the faith."

[sandnsea]

1. Idiots who believe media lies

Either way.

[MadMaddie]

2. His poll numbers are still higher than his predecessors at this

time in his presidency. That's what the media is not talking about.
The way the numbers are presented it makes it seem that the Repubs are gaining ground and they are not. The left is disenchanted right now because the bills that have passed aren't perfect and they refuse to settle for anything less.

[Steely_Dan]

3. So...It's a Little Of Both n/t

[HughMoran]

4. "It's the economy, stupid"

:shrug:

[Steely_Dan]

5. Yep...That's Huge

(And quit calling me stupid!)

[HughMoran]

7. "Stupid is as stupid does"

:rofl:

(I just know somebody will come along who doesn't recognize these quotes :) )

[LARED]

6. Yep nt

[moksha]

33. It's the jobs, stupid.

We need jobs programs. The government needs to directly put people to work. The people are too big to fail.

The WH recently admitted that they will be one-termers when they suggested unemployment would stay around 9% until 2012. Not good enough to be re-elected, sadly.

[Skittles]

8. he's alienated his base

his THINKING base

[ShadowLiberal]

9. It's the fox news media narrative being spread elsewhere

It's not just Fox, a lot of other news stations have decided that going after Obama draws viewers, so does making him look in trouble.

For example, ever since Obama has taken office, haven't you seen plenty of stories on evening news about "Obama's poll numbers are down in our latest survey"? The media says this about surveys frequently, even when Obama's numbers are up from their last survey, by simply comparing his now numbers to numbers from a time months ago, or early on, to his numbers before he was president (and that's not even a fair comparison, how they compared approval of him handling the transition to president, to his current approval rating).

They do this in other stories to, like inviting way more people on to bash the stimulus then those who support it, even when a majority of the public supported the stimulus.

[quakerboy]

21. How is that any different than any other moment in the past 10 years?

[JoePhilly]

10. I have an explination for this ...

Let's take legislation X (what X is does not matter).

1) ~40% (the right wing) is AGAINST anything Obama wants to do. Does not matter what it is. They claim he is doing "too much".

2) ~40% (the left wing) SUPPORTS anything Obama does, they may want more, but they generally agree with Obama over the GOP.

At this point I need to clarify something. The ~40% in #1 above is almost always the same people. Hard core, right wing. Much of it, Tea Party conservatives.

The ~40% in #2 is not always the same people from the left. It depends on what X is. This is important, I'll explain soon.

3) About 10% of the people are sheep. They are paying ZERO attention. Issue X does not matter. What they will do is follow the majority, ANY majority. They do not follow politics, they don't care to understand it, but they are "good Americans" and so they will vote.

4) The last 10% are "liberals" who are AGAINST Obama on issue X specifically because he does not go far enough, fast enough, as they see it.

Now ... with this ... the "liberal media" combines all of those who are AGAINST issue X ... and then claims that at least 50% of Americans think Obama goes TOO FAR. See the trick there??

And then, that ~10% of sheep, 6-7% of them JOIN the folks who are AGAINST X because it GOES TO FAR.

The media then reports the "result" ... 56% of Americans are AGAINST Obama on issue X, because he GOES TO FAR.

Dems in Washington (all of them) scream like little girls confronted with an AX murderer.

The GOP either BLOCKS progress, or causes such huge concessions that more on the left turn AGAINST Obama ... and then they repeat the cycle.

Bottom line: Politics is not a game of issues, it is a game of NUMBERS.

Earlier today on meet the press ... David Gregory could have confronted the disparity between those aspects of recovery that have occurred versus the PERCEPTION of them ... he could have posed questions on THE DATA ... he did not ... what did he do with his panel today ... discuss the POLLS. Why? Because that allows him and the rest of the media to do what I describe above more easily.

[Steely_Dan]

12. Thanks!

That was excellent.

[JoePhilly]

15. I saw David Gregory do this on MTP this AM ...

If you watch CNN, MSNBC (at times) .. and all day on Fox ... you will see this.

The "left" is not monolithic ... we disagree on specific priorities, pace, etc ... and the right uses that to sow division within us.

Like this ... which is more important ... ??

DADT ... my 10 year old who has cancer as a pre-existing condition, or your sister who's unemployment is running out.

The media demands Obama PICK ... if he does not act fast enough in ANY area, then the "liberal media" has to attack him to DIVIDE us.

Hey gays ... Obama picked Healthcare over DADT .. he hates you.

Hey unemployed people ... Obama does not care, he's busy taking over health care.


I saw a guy on TV the other day ... he was about to run out of unemployment benefits ... who was he angry at?? Obama. Obama and the Dems are trying to help the guy, and he blames them for not doing it fast enough ... while the GOP laughs its ass off ... they block giving the guy benefits with the goal of getting his vote for having done so.

And the media plays along.

[golfguru]

11. Loss of Jobs n/t

[JoePhilly]

13. Can you provide a chart of the job loss trends for say, the last ten years, to now??

Like say this one ...

http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/ibcd_09.pdf

Particularly the graph in the upper right corner.

Now ... take that graph, draw a line at the beginning of March of 2009 (when the stimulus passes) ... and then, describe the "job loss" trends before and AFTER that date.

When I look at that graph, a graph that is HISTORICALLY used to report "job loss" ... an interesting thing happens right after that date, the trend changes direction ... no??

What I suggest is that you try the same technique with the DOW, GDP, manufacturing, even housing (new and existing) ... temp hiring ( a signal of jobs to come), overtime (another pre-condtion), corporate earnings ...

There is a huge difference between the RW narrative and the TRUTH.

But hey ... let's whine about a deficit that will stop being an important media issue the SECOND we get a GOP President. Or, we could get a GOP congress, they will STEAL Social Security from the future of the middle class, and then give it to priavte corporations who set up their head quarters in out of the way islands with pristine beaches.

[golfguru]

18. It's not necessarily scientific, it may be the perception based on

24/7 news on MSM. If you watch any MSM outlet whether TV, cable
or printed newspaper, you hear about layoffs, unemployment benefits
being extended for longer periods, 9.5% unemployment rate etc etc etc.

In addition to that almost every has some relative or friend unemployed.
That has to add to the perception of excessive loss of jobs.

Here is one chart...

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3

It is easy to observe from the chart that Unemployment started to go up in January 2008, long
before Obama became president. But the general population rarely looks at charts and data. It
is more perception than scientific, based on anecdotes.

[JoePhilly]

26. Correct ...

A great example was Meet the Press yesterday ... in discussing the economy, David Gregory did not show any actual numbers that reflect the actual economy. Instead, he showed a POLL that indicated that a majority of Americans don't think things are much better now, than in 2008. He could have asked what the disconnect is. But instead, he used that poll to claim the economy actually was no better.

2008 was a terrible year. Home owners saw housing value plunge, if you had a 401k that dropped like a rock, and everyone I knew at the time was scared to death that their job might disappear at any second. None of those things are true now. Home values are down, but not dropping and they have started to increase in some areas. The people I know are not scared that they will be laid off, and 401k value, assuming you did not panic sell it, is now right back almost where it was before the irrational bubble.

But is Gregory going to discuss that ... no ... the only number we see is the deficit number.

It will be interesting to see what the media says about the unemployment rate this October. Last October it was at ~10.1% and rising. Now it's ~9.5%. I suspect David Gregory will round that UP in discussing it, claiming the unemployment rate is "still about 10%".

[spiritual_gunfighter]

32. Sorry but graphs mean jack shit

it is the perception that Obama is ineffectual that is hurting him. You can produce bikini graphs and show evidence that the stimulus has created jobs (it has I know). The perception is much different, and that is what is hurting Obama. He has not been effective selling his solutions to the American people. Jesus, people still think that the TARP was Obama's doing. If that kind of stuff is out there and you arent hitting it head on, you are eventually going to lose.

[OmahaBlueDog]

14. My Take

1. The economy .. specifically unemployment
2. The right wing scream machine
3. Buyers remorse.. people vote for change, and then immediately decide they don't want it
4. HCR.. the right hates it (although what emerged is similar to Romneycare)..the left hates it (they wanted single payer).. the center doesn't understand it, but thought the process (the Cornhusker kickback and passing by means of reconciliation) was unseemly
5. TARK..which isn't really an Obama item, but he gets blamed for it
6. The stimulus. I've said this elsewhere. People in America are struggling with crushing debt, so seeing their government borrow 1.75 trill to fix the economy is completely counterintuitive to people drowning in credit card and mortgage problems. Also, people wonder why the government did cash-for-clunkers (which actually did work to some extent) and things like roads projects, when buying people out of bad mortgages seems like a better idea.
7. He said he'd get us out of Iraq, and we're still there.
8. He never said he'd get us out of Afghanistan, and it's looking like a quagmire
9. Prop 8 (not his fault), DADT (he could certainly repeal), Dan Choi (raw deal), and no advancement on marriage equality
10. His rhetoric is so eloquent and brilliant, that it led people to very unrealistic expectations
11. It's hard to look or smell good when you are shoveling crap out of a barn. That's basically what taking over for Bush has been - a barn cleaning operation. It's been ugly and smelly

I saw this elsewhere, so I can't take credit, but there's a lot of truth in this statement:

Barack Obama volunteered to become the Captain of the Titanic after the previous Captain ran her into the iceberg.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

16. Again, why isn't the M$M telling the WHOLE story?

First, Obama's numbers are way better than Reagan's were at this point during his first administration. Given all the shit thrown at his feet, I find it absolutely remarkable! The M$M doesn't tell us this.

Second, and more important, sure Americans do not like Democrats. They may even be disillusioned with the administration. However, they dislike the Republicans EVEN MORE! Thus, the M$M's narrative that the Republicans are poised to take back the House and/or Senate is disingenuous at best. The American people don't really like Republicans. Sure, they'll win some seats. There is no question about that. But this oft-repeated meme that November 2012 will be like November 1994 is not supported by he evidence or the polls on Republicans.

As a political scientist, one of the first lessons that we are taught is that 1 day is an eternity in politics. As such, these daily tracking polls are meaningless. The only one that truly matters will be the one that is taken on Election Day. In other words, this is about voter enthusiasm and voter turnout. If Democrats do not come out to vote, the Republicans WILL win. But I would argue that these daily polls cannot predict what will happen four months from now.

[madamesilverspurs]

17. His numbers are rather remarkable, I think.

Considering that he has been vigorously fought on everything by a party that vowed to do exactly that...

Considering that his inclination to include all sides in the discussion has been repeatedly and consistently abused by those who demand concession in exchange for support they will never give...

Considering that our media is overwhelmingly owned and controlled by those whose bottom lines are tied to those who promote interests that are not necessarily in the best interests of the country...

Considering that he is tasked with undoing great damage while simultaneously working to strengthen our foundations...

Considering that he is relentlessly vilified by corporate "grassroots" groups that seek to undermine him at every opportunity...

Considering that some on the left find it more expedient to throw him under the bus rather than help him drive it...

In the face of all that, imagine what his numbers would be if more of us would keep in mind that it's Yes WE Can. WE.


-

[RBInMaine]

20. EXCELLENT ! K AND R !

[Overseas]

22. Great points. //nt

[uponit7771]

30. FUCK FACTS!!!!

[RBInMaine]

19. It is not about either of these. The polls indicate the unemployment statistic, and little else.

If the employment stat was below 9%, his polling would be at least 10 points higher. This is mostly a fake argument.

[Ross K]

23. Irrelevant

I'll wait for the poll results from Nov.6 2012, thank you!

[OHdem10]

24. Since most polls are skewed Republican----Likely Voters are

canvassed. Likely Voters are for the most part Republican.
The more advantaged you are (likely to be a Republican)
and therefore you get to the polls every election. Stake
in the outcome.

This can account for some of the drop.

The fact there is a running capaign by the Right in opposition
to anything Obama pursues does not help.

The Economy and the Jobs Situation.

[Bitwit1234]

25. Huffington Post bought some poll company

I can't remember which. I would like to see the results of some of their polls and know the name of the company. I would love to be able to know just who some of those companies call. There is no way the majority of people in this country go along with the republicans. No way. I think they are slanted and no body is gonna tell me other wise.

[donco6]

27. Trying to be a Republican when you're not one, just pisses off everyone.

Republicans will never trust you, no matter how much you do to appease them. Progressives will be frustrated because you're not doing anything on their agenda. Who's going to be happy?

[WI_DEM]

28. If you look at Gallup daily tracking his poll numbers have been fairly consistent for months

it's a myth that they are suddenly plummeting.

[mikekohr]

29. BINGO! if you look into the President's numbers they have not changed much since election night

The big change is the volume of bitter sore-loserism from the lunatic right and the cowering coverage of this loud mouth nutbag minority by the national media.

mike kohr
-A big howdy from your FIB neighbor in North Central Illinois-

[DailyGrind51]

31. Because it wasn't "socialist" enough?