MA-Gov: Patrick Leads Baker by 13

[ccharles000]

Suffolk (pdf) (5/20-23, RVs, 2/21-24 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 42 (33)
Charlie Baker (R): 29 (25)
Tim Cahill (I): 14 (23)
Jill Stein (G): 8 (3)
Undecided: 7 (16)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

It may be premature to say that Patrick is "on the mend", but when you start accumulating enough polls like this one, it's hard not to feel that way. A recent Rasmussen poll pegged the race at 45 Patrick, 31 Baker, and 16 Cahill -- not far off Suffolk's mark at all.

You may recall that, when they last polled this race in February, Suffolk head David Paleologos hyperventilated that this was now a two-way race "between Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill", despite the fact that Patrick was still technically leading the field by eight points. Paleologos is now smartly singing a different tune, saying that the RGA's big media buy against Cahill has actually been more of a net positive for Patrick. In any case, three-way races like this one can end up throwing some serious curveballs, but Patrick seems to be in the strongest shape we've seen him in a while. His job approval has ticked up to a bad 42-49, up from a dismal 34-59 in February, and his favorable rating is up to 45-46 from 38-50. Still, his re-elects remain poor: 33-55 (up from 29-60).

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6975/magov-patrick-leads-baker-by-13

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I think the death of the Democratic Party has been greatly exaggerated.

[Thrill]

2. WOW. A few months ago. it looked for sure like he had no chance

of winning re-election. Way to Go Deval!!

[HughMoran]

3. nice

MA gained 19000 jobs & the unemployment rate fell to 9.2%

[ej510]

4. Scott Brown is helping Deval Patrick.

[Jennicut]

5. Good to see Patrick bounce back.

[Mass]

6. From where? He has always been ahead in the polls in this three men race.

Cahill is collapsing and it is good news as long as his votes go to Patrick, but, because of the three men race, he always had a good chance to win.

[Jennicut]

7. Good to know. I guess I figured he was behind because of his lower

approval ratings earlier this year.

Now, if only CT can get Lamont elected as Governor (or Malloy, I would take either). We have not had a Dem Gov since the 1991.

[Mass]

8. The point is that everybody has low approval ratings these days, so this is meaningless.