Jonathan Alter: Secrets From Inside the Obama War Room

[babylonsister]

This is pretty intense; and we thought we knew what the Prez was up against.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/238092

Secrets From Inside the Obama War Room


Charles Ommanney / Getty Images
By Jonathan Alter | Newsweek Web Exclusive
May 15, 2010 | Updated: 6:18 p.m. ET May 15, 2010



The first of 10 "AFPAK" meetings came on Sept. 13, when the president gathered 16 advisers in the Situation Room in the basement of the White House. This was to be the most methodical national-security decision in a generation. Deputy national-security adviser Tom Donilon had commissioned research that backed up an astonishing historical truth: neither the Vietnam War nor the Iraq War featured any key meetings where all the issues and assumptions were discussed by policymakers. In both cases the United States was sucked into war inch by inch.

The Obama administration was determined to change that. "For the past eight years, whatever the military asked for, they got," Obama explained later. "My job was to slow things down." The president had something precious in modern crisis management: time. "I had to put up with the 'dithering' arguments from Dick Cheney or others," Obama said. "But as long as I wasn't shaken by the political chatter, I had the time to work through all these issues and ask a bunch of tough questions and force people to sharpen their pencils until we arrived at the best possible solution."

Obama's approach in the meetings was the same as always. He was, according to one participant, "clear-eyed, hardheaded, and demanding." More than once the president felt obliged to remind those briefing him that it wasn't 2001 anymore. The United States had been in Afghanistan for eight years, and doing more of the same wasn't going to cut it. The war in Afghanistan was destined soon to pass Vietnam (11 years) as the longest war in American history.

The AfPak sessions led to an explosion of unauthorized disclosures, spin, and cutthroat bureaucratic gamesmanship, including the leak of the McChrystal Report to Bob Woodward of The Washington Post. The president later admitted privately that his administration had handled the assigning of the report "stupidly." Instead of simply asking Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the new commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, for a status report on the deteriorating situation on the ground, he let Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, dispatch McChrystal with a vague assignment that included making recommendations. He figured he should have known that any report would inevitably get out if put on paper.

snip//

It wasn't a secret that someone in the military would likely have been fired had Biden been president. But the vice president admitted to other advisers that it was better that Obama was in charge and showing more mercy toward the Pentagon. The generals thought they were working him over, Biden said privately, but the president had the upper hand. He was a step ahead of them, and as much as some of them thought they had obliterated the July 2011 deadline for beginning a withdrawal, they were mistaken.

When he spoke to McChrystal by teleconference, Obama couldn't have been clearer in his instructions. "Do not occupy what you cannot transfer," the president ordered. In a later call he said it again: "Do not occupy what you cannot transfer." He didn't want the United States moving into a section of the country unless it was to prepare for transferring security responsibilities to the Afghans. The troops should dig wells and pass out seeds and all the other development ideas they had talked about for months, but if he learned that U.S. soldiers had been camped in a town without any timetable for transfer of authority he wasn't going to be happy.

At the conclusion of an interview in his West Wing office, Biden was adamant. "In July of 2011 you're going to see a whole lot of people moving out. Bet on it," Biden said as he wheeled to leave the room, late for lunch with the president. He turned at the door and said once more, "Bet. On. It."

[zipplewrath]

1. He's getting played... but

I think to some extent he's getting played, but I suspect he may also "win" this one.

He's getting played because he gave them 18 months. Alot can happen in 18 months that will give Gates, Petraus, and McCrystal plenty of wiggle room to ask for more time. Heck, in 18 months, any one (or all) of the three could be gone. They probably all feel that in the end, "supporting the troops" and "allowing them to win" will be their trump cards. They only have to "begin" to withdraw anyway, and they can merely beg to "slow down the rate".

I suspect though that Obama has one or two of his own though. First, the war has gone on way too long. It will be a hard sell, even for the military, that some how Obama "hasn't given this enough time". Second, the allies are getting ready to leave. They aren't going to be sold on this either. The American public won't be crazy about "being stuck there alone".

18 months is too long. I'm not sure where they came up with that number, but I'd be real curious what is accomplished in 18 months, that couldn't be accomplished in 9, that is worth all the dead Afghans, dead allied soldiers, and the billions of dollars. It's a mistake, a mistake that's going to take 18 months to realize, and then even then it won't be over, it will only be the beginning of being over. And then there will be more dead Afghans, more dead soldiers, and billions more gone.

[babylonsister]

2. When you're elected president, we'll talk. Or, if you're actually privy

to what went on in that war room, we'll talk. Anything else you have to say is pure speculation and your opinion.

[zipplewrath]

5. I think I made that pretty clear

It's an opinion based upon what we know and see. The article presented it as one point of view, and the author isn't particularly better "schooled" than I. I see him still getting played, but I suspect he's gonna win.

[Clio the Leo]

9. At what point will folks concede that the President might actually know what he's doing...

.... how many battles will he have to win in Congress? How many failing companies will he have to save? You just waste your time and energy debating with folks who already have their minds made up Babs, .... I'm going to go back to reading about the record earnings that GM just posted. ;)

http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=c84a5fa285f59d51b6161a2cd2bd3e3f

[zipplewrath]

12. Some of us have lived through the failures.

Kennedy supposedly hired the "best and the brightest", and they led us into Vietnam. Clinton gave us NAFTA, DADT, and DOMA (all considered successes at the time by the way). Rusk (one of those best and brightest) drew a line on a National Geographic map and set up the borders for the Korean war. Smart people do dumb things. Smart presidents make mistakes. I've never bought into the "chess master" model for Obama. But if you wanna talk about people who already have their minds made up, look to the folks that blindly assume the president "knows what he's doing".

And, I might point out, even if he does, it don't make it "right".

[Clio the Leo]

16. You lived through Obama's failures?

I lived through New Hampshire ... the Coakley nightmare .... but I have yet to live through any Obama failure that leads me to believe he's capable of of being "played" by anyone. He's not perfect, he makes mistakes ... but "getting played"? Seriously?

Un-uh ... at least give the man enough credit that any decision he makes is ultimately his responsibility and not the result of being too foolish to know BS when he hears it.

[ljm2002]

25. In other words...

..."You're not the President so sit down and shut up!"

Now why does that sound familiar... "Who cares what you think!"

Strangely enough, some of us think this DISCUSSION BOARD is for the purposes of DISCUSSION, which necessarily entails stating our OPINIONS and having others comment, agree or disagree.

Telling others to shut up is not discussion, it is a bullying tactic.

[lunatica]

3. I'm not as sure as you are

Since I don't know all the parameters. My hope is that we will withdraw in that time. But no one can foretell what may happen between now and then. No one.

[Jennicut]

6. I agree with you on something. Obama gave them this time to prove something.

Obama can say, "I gave you this opportunity and it proved not to work. It is time to try something else...perhaps Biden's approach." I would say 18 months is what McCrystal thought was needed to do a complete insurgency. Not that it was going to work....

[zipplewrath]

7. God, I hope not

I can understand how you would get that impression from the article. But I hope that OBAMA believed that the strategy is going to work. I mean, it's okay to be "cautiously skeptical" or something, but for all the dead and money, I hope he actually thought the chance for success was good.

[Jennicut]

10. I sure don't believe it is going to work.

We shall see...
I do wonder what Obama really thought.

[zipplewrath]

11. I don't either

I think he's made a huge mistake. There are signs that the WH is beginning to suspect the same, although they are going to allow the problem to play out first. It will be interesting to see if there is a push to accelerate the earlier part of the withdrawl somehow.

[NJmaverick]

22. How do you know you are not the one being played?

[NJmaverick]

4. K & R!

[mopinko]

8. not surprised that the generals think they are in charge

i have a couple of relatives in the military, and their opinion of presidential power is that it comes and goes, but they are still there. if obama can successfully push back on the MIC, he will be one for the history books. (not that i don't think he already is.)

[marlakay]

19. I have heard that from my military folks too

they don't seem to care whose president in one way since they are there for whole career.

[kjackson227]

13. ...and some were worried that Obama is too WEAK...

I guess they can try to define him in a different way now, because the man is anything but weak... and a FOOL. Sooo, the military heads tried to play him, but they were the ones who ended up getting played. This brought a big smile to my face... loving this president more and more each day. This job definitely isn't easy, especially when there's so many cronies from the previous administration. BUT, if anybody can enter into the "snake pit" and tame them, it's O-B-A-M-A!

[Clio the Leo]

17. "The harshest moment between any President and General since Truman fired MacArthur..."

.... is how Alter described it tonight on Countdown.

Wow.

[Hekate]

20. I heard him say that and it gave me goosebumps. "Cold fury" -- wow.

I'm looking forward to reading Alter's book.

Hekate

[Clio the Leo]

23. Even *I* heard that and went .... "huh?"

I dont think the President is the type of person who has to prove his manhood by yelling or sounding "tough" WITH an audience in front of him so it's a side we're not used to seeing. But he no doubt has a spine of steel.

[impik]

21. But, but, but, he is weaaaakkkk!

[phleshdef]

14. This confirms my suspicion that Pres. Obama wants to responsibly END both wars.

[babylonsister]

15. I agree; I never thought otherwise. nt

[Cha]

18. I love having Obama Biden

in charge.

[KittyWampus]

24. It seems Alter's take differs from Sy Hersch's

[AtomicKitten]

26. Sy Hersch scared the crap out of me with his reporting.

I hope Hersch is wrong but would settle for the truth lying somewhere in the middle.

I heard/read yesterday that Obama called the Pentagon and McChystal on the carpet when they went public about the discussion on Afghanistan reasserting that he is president and telling them to quit backseat driving. I hope that's true.