Al Sadr may be the key to how long the US stays in Iraq...

[Blackhatjack]

The US cannot kill him without setting off total chaos, and if he continues to unite the Militias against the US and UK troops we are looking at huge increases in loss of life.

Al Sadr's ties to Iran are apparent, and if his actions in Iraq are imputed to Iranian Leadership, it could lead to direct military action against Iran.

It is a conundrum. And the only answer to the NeoCons is to sap his power by striking Iran and marginalizing his influence based upon support from iran.

I would like to know what the career Intelligence and Pentagon Brass think in terms of dealing with Al Sadr and how we are ever going to disengage from Iraq.

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. They'll kill Sadr, there will be unending chaos.

It's inevitable.

[Kagemusha]

2. Sadr's ties to Iran only exist to the extent they do at all because of the US.

If Sadr has been driven to greater rapprochement with Iran, it's something that only occured out of perceived necessity. Go USA! Uniting enemies around the world!

[Blackhatjack]

3. It is very similar to what happened with Bin Laden, making him even more popular...

Sadr is a real wild card.

Trying to look at this logically, Al Sadr at least gives us a defacto 'leader' to negotiate with while alive and a martyr to overcome if he dies.

[heidler1]

4. The big problem is Sadr won't give us any oil rights.

He'd rather split it with the Sunnis than let the US have it. I'd bet that's a winner idea from the Iraqi standpoint. The only way Bush can save face is to end up with oil privileges.

[David__77]

5. I wouldn't compare Sadr with Bin Laden.

I know you aren't saying their politics are the same, but I cannot stress how different there in fact are. Sadr is religious, sure - but I do not believe at all that he buys into the "clash of civilizations" thesis upheld by neo-conservatives and al-Queda simultaneously. Sadr would be much more like former Iranian president Khatami- a reactionary, but one who is primarily interested in national economic development and a multi-polar world order.

[Blackhatjack]

6. Their similarity lies in their increased popularity with the Iraqi people....

By allowing Bin Laden to remain 'on the loose' and to appeal directly to the people, take credit for attacks and bombings, etc. we essentially gave him a platform to draw disaffected Iraqis' admiration.

By allowing Al Sadr to remain 'free to direct his militia' and to spout anti-American rhetoric, we have given him the platform to increase his popularity.

I agree, The similarities end there.