It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

[Subdivisions]

I http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=9599759">recently posted about the latest IEA World Energy Outlook Report. I've been repeating over and over here that this economy WILL NEVER RECOVER. I base that statement on the state of crude oil production and the fact that we have passed the point of peak oil, which is finally being addressed by the IEA.

This is a follow up to my earlier post to introduce you to someone more knowledgable than me who has also read the report and feels it's time for you to start paying attention...

It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve
by http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/economy-set-starve/48474">Chris Martensen

(For those of you who do not know what "peak oil" is, Chris has an excellent primer http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil">here)

Once a year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook (WEO), and it's our tradition here at ChrisMartenson.com to review it. A lot of articles have already been written on the WEO 2010 report, and I don't wish to tread an already well-worn path, but the subject is just too important to leave relegate to a single week of attention.

Because some people will only read the first two paragraphs, let me get a couple of conclusions out right up front. You need to pay close attention to Peak Oil, and you need to begin adjusting, because it has already happened. The first conclusion is mine; the second belongs to the IEA.

...snip...

The IEA has been producing annual reviews of the world energy situation for a long time and has not mentioned the term "Peak Oil" (as far as I know) until this year's report. And not only did they mention it, they said that as far as conventional oil goes, it's in the rear view mirror:

Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids (NGL) and unconventional oil grows quickly.

WEO 2010 - Executive Summary

I might quibble that the all-time peak remains 2005 in the US Energy Information Agency data set, but the main point here is that the IEA has not only used the words "Peak Oil" (finally!) but they've done so in the past tense, at least with regard to conventional oil.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/economy-set-starve/48474">CONTINUE TO ARTICLE

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Whether you want to belive it or not makes not a bit of difference. With conventional crude oil production in permanent decline, THE ECONOMY WILL NEVER RECOVER!

Your children and your grand-children will inherit an altogether different and uncertain world - a civilization starved more and more each year for the energy it was built upon. Ignore this at their peril.

[Lil Missy]

1. mark for later

[XemaSab]

2. .

[laughingliberal]

6. delete wrong place

[Swamp Rat]

3. k&r

[Lorien]

4. plenty of renewable energy solutions exist, but the fossil fuel barons still own

America, so they aren't just being ignored, they're being attacked as "too expensive" or "pie in the sky" as part of a broader anti-everything-but-fossil-fuels campaign. He who controls the world's energy controls the world.

[JDPriestly]

5. But oil from shale is extremely expensive.

And we have seen with the BP spill, that the price of the oil we get from deep ocean water is far too high.

We need to be using alternative energy right now.

The Republican House is going to make the switch that we so urgently need all the more difficult. Although I must say, the Blue Dogs were no better than the Republicans on this issue.

[daleanime]

8. Blue dogs are no better than Republicans....

on almost every issue.:banghead:

[ixion]

10. exactly

There are massive jobs and business revenue potential in converting our culture over to renewable and/or distributed energy systems, but Big Energy is doing all they can to assure none of that ever sees the light of day.

[Lorien]

39. Solar roads alone would give us three times the energy we need

and they aren't at all "pie in the sky".

[Subdivisions]

12. There are NO *SCALABLE* RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS

that will replace crude oil as the primary energy source of this civilization.

PERIOD.

[Warren DeMontague]

41. Better start cutting down on those high energy caps, then.

Is it that upsetting if someone doesn't agree that we're DOOOOOOOMED?

In the space of a century we went from no gasoline infrastructure to what we have now. No scalable renewable solutions? Yeah, there's just a long, giant list of things the human animal simply can't-



can't-



can't-



I SAID YOU CAN'T!!!!!- do.



:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:




Will it be easy? No. Will we find a single solution to perfectly replace the current petroleum delivery system we have now? Probably not. But "no scalable solutions"- feh. Sez you.

[Subdivisions]

51. I'll use caps as emphasis whenever and wherever I want. You show me

the scalable solutions to liquid fuel energy. Where is it?

[Warren DeMontague]

54. That was a joke, Touchy.

My point is, people can accomplish incredible things. Particularly as the profit motive increases, as it will undoubtedly as petroleum becomes more scarce.

[ixion]

43. I believe what you mean to say is: there is no single renewable energy solution that can plug in

seamlessly to our current oil-based framework, and you would be correct in saying so.

If you mean, however, that there is not enough wind/solar/geo-thermal power out there to fulfill our power needs, you're sorely mistaken.

[Subdivisions]

50. Can you put wind/solar/geo-thermal in a metal/plastic gas tank? n/t

[Warren DeMontague]

55. You can put them in an electric car. nt

[laughingliberal]

7. Yep. Anything that interferes with oil company profits must be strangled in its cradle.

The sociopathic corporations look only to this quarter's bottom line and the world be damned

[Subdivisions]

13. What is this 'anything' you speak of? n/t

[Goldstein1984]

9. The oil industry is well aware of peak oil, or they wouldn't be

wasting time with low-yield prospects like tar sands and oil shales. Yes, there's plenty of oil still in the ground, but it net energy yield (energy used to produce, transport and refine it versus the energy produced) is very low. Yes, your tank will be full, but it'll be a $250 tank, not a $50 tank.

There's too much money invested in the current business model, and developing alternatives would make the current infrastructure obsolete before it's been fully depreciated. It simply isn't good business to develop alternatives to products you sell.

[DCKit]

11. However, the longer they lobby to derail or delay alternative energy development...

the more money they're going to make as we hit the wall.

If we thought their profits over the last few years were obscene, we haven't seen nuthin' yet.

[Subdivisions]

15. There is no scalable liquid fuel replacement for oil. We built this

civilization on a finite resource and there is no liquid fuel that can take over where oil leaves off.

All of the possibilities barely make up 1% of the volume of oil when it comes to liquid transportation fuel used in internal combustion engines.

I've been studying this issue for 6 years and I have yet to hear or see of any possible SCALABLE replacement. And, believe me, I've looked.

The world uses 85 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY. Here in the U.S., we use 21 Million barrels per day, If you know of a liquid fuel that can scale to that volume EVERY SINGLE DAY, day-in and day-out for the foreseeable future, then I'd like to hear about it.

[DCKit]

16. You are completely right. There is nothing that will ever replace gas.

Ever. We're doomed to walking.

[Subdivisions]

17. There are ~750 MILLION liquid fuel engines on this planet. Your electric

xanadu is not going to happen. We'll need 1000's of nuclear power plants to make the electricity to convert all transportation to electric.

Also, in order to convert, oil will be needed to make the transisition. Is there enough oil left to do that. NO!

[DCKit]

18. So, are you going to run off and commit suicide?

Personally, I've been waiting for the U.S. to get serious since Jimmy Carter sat down and told us the truth about what was going to happen if we didn't.

Over thirty years wasted. How many of those 750 million cars are >30 years old?

BTW, the hijacked patent on perfectly serviceable NiMH batteries runs out in 2014. I think we're going to see some really big changes.

Finally, how many solar panels (and at what cost) would it take to charge batteries for the daily commute? Not a whole lot, I expect.

[Ezlivin]

19. Are the solar panels made in a factory powered by solar panels?

That's the rub: Petroleum is required to produce nearly everything. As long as oil is relatively cheap then it's possible to churn out solar panels at a reasonable price. The price of solar panels will soar when oil prices rise substantially. And the prices for solar panels are still prohibitively high for most people, hence the widespread subsidies.

There will always be oil; we'll never completely deplete the reserves. But the remaining oil will become so expensive as to render it useless for all but the extremely wealthy.

Sadly, this country did not heed the sound advice of President Carter.

[DCKit]

20. They COULD be.

I'm sensing the attitude that we simply shouldn't try, because it might be hard.

Sorry, but I have other plans.

[Subdivisions]

23. 'Sorry, but I have other plans.'

Good luck with that.

Also, nobody is saying that we shouldn't try. Problem is we should have started trying when President Carter warned us 30 years ago. Now, try as we might, it's too late. This civilization will collapse from energy starvation. But we will try nonetheless. It's our nature. This time fate has other plans.

[Tesha]

57. Solar panels are mostly made in factories powered (ultimately) by coal, not oil.

There's no reason to worry that we won't have the energy to "bridge"
to a solar future. Whether America will have the *WILL* to convert to
a solar future is a whole 'nuther question, of course.

Tesha

[Subdivisions]

22. Why would I commit suicide? Indeed, I have a new lease on life and that

is to see to it that the next generation, in my case 5 "kids" and 4 grandkids (so far), is ready for what lies ahead.

Solar and wind are not expected to exceed a maximum of 4% of our daily electric power needs, ever. And oil is going to have to fuel the manufacture of both solar panels and wind turbines as well as the 1000s of nuke plants that will be needed. There will also need to be hundreds of natgas generators, which will need oil in their making from the gathering of ores and radiactive meterials like plutonium and uranium, etc.

You see, NOTHING can be built to replace a crude oil infrastructure without oil inputs throughout the process. And there's not enough profitable oil left to extract to build it.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

25. So, what do you think will happen? 99.99% of the world looks like Somalia?

[Subdivisions]

26. Well, what does the poor area of any metropolitan area look like with

high fuel prices those poor cannot afford and without jobs for them to put food on the table? Do you think the millions put out of work by this depression will fare any better? Are many of them armed, as are people in Somalia? Will desperate Americans act any differently than desperate Somalis? Imagine if you no longer had access to money, fuel, or food. And then imagine losing your home. What then?

As crude oil production continues its terminal decline, it will act as battery acid on cotton cloth, slowly eating away at the infrastructure of our lives and the lives of our family and friends. It's already happening. A cheap-oil-based civilization starved for cheap oil manifests its own outcome based on how the people adapt. Will Americans adapt through violence, as in Somalia?

You tell me what a world starved more and more for oil every day looks like? How will we handle it? Sure, there will be a mighty effort by those who are trying to address this issue. But I've been addressing this very issue here at DU for years and I'm only just now getting through to people. And it's already too late for a successful transition to...what?

The question you ask should have been answered by society beginning 30 years ago. Now there's not enough PROFITABLE oil left (google EROEI, which was 100:1 at the beginning of the Oil Age and is now 8:1. 1:1 is break even = no more profitable oil = no point in drilling any longer) to make any kind of transition.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

29. Is there such a thing as a recommended course of action?

Or everything is inevitable and every technological advance will be lost forever for lack of energy no matter what?

[Subdivisions]

30. Show me who has the plan. The U.S. was told in 2005 this was happening

and Robert Hirsch was told to keep his mouth shut about it after the U.S. commissioned him to do the study.

There is no public plan to mitigate oil depletion. If there is, show it to me.

Also, we're in a really bad situation in the U.S. because we already import 2/3 of our daily oil usage. As time goes by, that will decrease as exporting countries keep more and more of their own oil or sell it to the highest bidders. That's called "The Export Land Model". Google that.

Edited to add: BTW, Robert Hirsch is so concerned here five years after his study that he is no longer keeping his mouth shut. He'll tell you how bad it is here in a several part series of videos on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Am1DGjzxBrI&feature=related and here is a search link: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_filter=1&search_query=robert+hirsch+oil&search_type=videos&suggested_categories=25%2C27&uni=3&search_sort=video_date_uploaded

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

31. So, Somalia is inevitable.

[Subdivisions]

32. Well, it depends on how Americans handle the situation. It will be a long

descent (26 years or so, according to estimates of U.S. imports but not taking into account increases in the price of oil/gas) and so some people will adapt along the way by living with family, moving to land where they can grow their own food, and many will not be able to adapt. As more and more people cannot afford the costs of life, more and more will die, leaving more of what's left for those who live on.

We are already at 2nd world status and on our way to 3rd world status. That's easy enough to see already. One thing we can count on though is the return of jobs. Jobs that pay what a child in a Chinese factory makes. Look for abolishment of minimum wage requirements at some point.

[backscatter712]

47. The elephant in the room that nobody talks about...

There's not enough arable cropland to grow ethanol, so the corn lobbyists' solution won't quite work.

Bio-diesel algae could be promising, but the bio-engineering challenges haven't been worked out yet, so scaling it up just doesn't work. Maybe it'll work in the future, but there are no guarantees.

There's wind and solar, but not enough of it - even if we went all-out building turbines and solar panels, we still won't be able to generate enough electricity to meet demand.

Electric cars are cool, but where does the electricity come from? Most of the time, it's coal. We've got far more coal than we've got oil, but it's still a nasty polluter, there's no such thing as clean coal, so get ready for carbon change and more mercury in your seafood...

My suggestion at this point, barring a breakthrough like workable, relatively clean nuclear fusion power (it could happen - lots of smart people are working on figuring that problem out, but it was 50 years away 50 years ago, and it's still 50 years away...) would be thorium-based nuclear fission reactors. Thorium promises to be far nicer than uranium as far as environmental issues go - the waste is far less nasty (not harmless, mind you, but not insanely harmful like uranium reactor waste), it's less environmentally damaging to mine, it's much harder to make bombs using thorium, it requires help in the reactor (in the form of a particle beam or a uranium seed pellet) to make it react, giving us a nice SCRAM switch for emergencies. And the government's already built thorium reactors in the past, so the engineering challenges are manageable.

[Initech]

14. Honestly I think the movie Mad Max is an accurate portrait of where we're heading.

[dixiegrrrrl]

21. The worst part of the scenario is: WE get it, right?

But there are those who do not or will not face this.

You know how when you are driving on the freeway and the lanes narrow up ahead,
with plenty of warnings , then the the cones, then the flashing arrows, etc.?
So you and I pull into the correct lane, and watch as car after car blasts past, only to end up in the dead end lane.
THEN they edge out into the traffic lane, COUNTING on the fact someone will let them cut ahead of everyone they just passed.


THOSE idjits are NOT going to adjust well to shortages.

[Subdivisions]

24. An EXCELLENT metaphor for the situation, dixiegrrrrl. Thanks! n/t

[bluestate10]

27. I disagree.

I am an engineer and scientist. I see what is in the pipeline in terms of clean energy. I am bug eyed from what I see. Oil will not be needed, it won't run out.

[Subdivisions]

28. What will replace oil in the volume of 85,000,000 barrels per day? That's

3,740,000,000 gallons per day. EVERY DAY. Day after day after day? 31 Billion barrels per year into the foreseeable future?

Also, why haven't I heard of this potential replacement yet? Why can't I put it in my fuel tank yet?

Where is it? Will it GROW the economy and result in jobs for all?

Why hasn't the IEA, EIA, or anyone else heard of it yet? Why is the IEA not reporting the numbers on this energy source yet?

BTW, I never said oil would run out. And no one that's watching the situation has said that either. PROFITABLE oil is the issue. If it's not profitable, it won't be produced.

In the next 14 years we will use the equivalent of all the oil we've ever used to this point. What is scalable enough to take over in 14 years?

Can it be used to make plastics and everything that is made from them? Hopital syringes, intubation tubes, machines, monitors...?

[bluestate10]

44. You don't hear about key research and engineering breakthroughs until

they happen. I sit at an ideal vantage point. I see what is happening. Disruptive technologies are on the way within the next five years that will send oil the way of the horse and buggy, oil from any source will not be competitive when priced against the survivors of the race that is now happening. You can stand on the sidelines holding your hands, I prefer to continue the action that is happening and help seize control of the nation's energy future, and it's all around future.

Job growth and stability depends upon stable prices, particularly stable energy prices.

Energy consultants are backward looking, they can only evaluate what they know.
The non fossil fuel, not carbon energy sources that are in development should be cheap enough that feeds for secondary products like plastics, lubricants and medicines can be made from plant sources cheaply enough to make them competitive with or cheaper from comparable petroleum based sources.

[Subdivisions]

49. You still have not named this new energy source, which is scalable

to 85 million barrels of oil per day equivalent.

Oil production has been flat for five years. Where is this new technology? Why can't I put it in my fuel tank yet? You say oil will go the way of the horse and buggy within the next five years. But it's already been five years since oil production peaked. Do you know what five more years of flat to declining oil production is going to do to this civilization? What and where is your new miracle substance that can replace oil in our internal combustion engines and why isn't it already available? And, also, why hasn't anyone heard of it yet?

"You can stand on the sidelines holding your hands..." How can I, or any of us, do otherwise when this new energy source is not yet available and you refuse to answer my questions?

[Subdivisions]

53. I couldn't edit my post above to ask this....

What's the EROEI of the processes and substances you refuse to name?

[FamousBlueRaincoat]

33. The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler

Humans have recreated the world plenty of times before. It's gonna be rough, it's gonna be ugly, it's going to take some imagination, but it's going to be better (because it can't not be).

Lots of people are mostly going to be upset because they're going to have to change their way of living. They're going to be the biggest losers...the following generations will more or less be fine after things stabilize.

[Subdivisions]

34. Wow! Welcome to DU, FBR! Are you sure you're ready for this place, lol?

Glad to have you here, and bittersweet that your first post was in my rather alarming thread.

At least you're aware of the situation and your optimism is contagious.

[FamousBlueRaincoat]

36. Thanks

I actually posted here ages ago - like back in 2001 - 2004 when I was a teenager. I went into the wilderness for a while and I have no idea what my screen name was or what e-mail address I even used - it's all long gone. But I've been unemployed, bored, and back lurking around again lately and it reminded me of the fun.

[asdjrocky]

35. As always, look to hemp or cannabis for the answer.

http://www.ridelust.com/hemp_powered_vehicles/

It is staring us in the face.

[Subdivisions]

37. Hi Rocky! Good to see you =)! Ok, first of all hemp and cannibis are illegal.

Second, it would take 400,000 acres of hemp to produce over 300,000bpd (Barrels Per Day) of oil equivalent. But we use 21,000,000 barrels of oil per day in the U.S. alone. That works out to 28,000,000 acres of hemp must be harvested and refined every single day, day in and day out.

Is that doable? If so, at what price? What would such a turnover volume do to the soil?

[asdjrocky]

38. Hey Dude, good to see you as always.

First of all, I'm vaguely aware that it is illegal, so the goes the rumor.

I'm not saying it can totally replace oil as a liquid energy source, but it could certainly supplement oil, or whatever other sources there are. As far as how many cubic feet of total acres divided by the total production... well, I leave that for smart guys like you. I do know this, you can grow aeroponicly or hydroponically and recycle water, or use very little. I've done both with cannabis, and they are growing on top of skyscrapers in Japan now without soil at all.

Doable? Who knows? Perhaps not. Mostly I think it's not doable because the people we get fooled into voting for are determined to side with the oil companies no matter what and in doing so they'll continue to drive us off the cliff. I in no way envision a future where they will finally own up to the truth and do the right thing, but I do continue to believe hemp could be a huge part of saving the world.

You could very well be right about it not being possible, gawd knows I've never learned anything by winning every argument.

We could build hemp plants and hemp farms with hemp bricks that are better, totally renewable and harder than concrete.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRtDh6YUt-0

The more I research, the more I learn, the more I see how tptb are screwing us all with this delusional prohibition.

Now, on the subject of cannabis, if we all had some, we'd mostly stay home thinking great thoughts and always be peaceful, therefore, less driving. Another win/win.

Peace.

[Lorien]

40. Two separate species.

Only industrial hemp is useful as a fuel.

[Warren DeMontague]

42. And the other stuff is useful to mellow out your friends when they start off on how

DOOOOOOMED!!!


we are.

[Subdivisions]

52. Here is the link to the WEO 2010 report...

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

It's not me saying oil production has peaked and will never again reach it's high mark of 70 mb/d. It's the International Energy Agency.

Also, I have said nothing of the sort about we're DOOOOOOMED!!! What I have said is that we'll have to adapt and it is in how we adapt that will determine whether we are doomed or not. Have you forgotten that crude oil was not even around for our use for the first millions of years of our existance? Without oil, it is this modern oil-based civilization that is DOOOOOOMED!!!, not humanity as a whole.

[Warren DeMontague]

56. And as oil becomes more scarce, it will become more lucrative to develop alternatives.

One man's crisis is another man's opportunity.

[AdHocSolver]

58. As oil becomes more scarce, it will become more lucrative to PREVENT alternatives.

Preventing reduction in oil consumption is exactly what the auto/oil industry has been doing for the past thirty years.

The auto companies reversed the improvements made in gas mileage in the 1970's and 1980's made in response to the government mandated fuel efficiency standards (CAFE) to producing the gas guzzlers they built in the 1990's till today. They knew oil production was going to be more expensive so they made it more costly for the public, and more profitable for them, for people to drive.

Then in the 1990's, auto companies were pushed, primarily by California, to produce less polluting vehicles, and GM developed the EV1 and EV2 all electric cars. GM leased the cars in California and the people who drove them loved them. GM was so unhappy with the popularity of their electric vehicles that they recalled them and destroyed them. See "Who Killed the Electric Car".

Then, GM sold the rights to the battery technology to an oil company.

From a technical stand point, by converting our gasoline powered auto fleet from gasoline to predominantly electric and hybrid electric technology over the next ten years, we could reduce our oil consumption by a factor of five. Add expanding mass transit options into the mix and oil use could drop even more. Add improvements in solar and wind production of electricity over the next ten years, and we could see a reduction of coal usage as well.

This is technically feasible. The issue is whether the oil, coal, electric, and military/industrial companies will allow it to happen, and if they fight it, will the government force them to make it happen.

[Warren DeMontague]

59. And several electric cars are poised to hit the market this coming year.

Here in Oregon, stimulus funds are being used to turn I-5 into the first electric car-friendly interstate corridor in the US.

I'm sorry, I'm just not smelling the conspiracy.

As far as "technically feasible", that was my point exactly.

[asdjrocky]

48. See my answer below, I tie it together, if only with humor. nt

[conspirator]

45. I posted in this website in 2008 saying there would NEVER be a recovery

I was crucified, as people were thinking that Obama was going to fix things.
I post today now, that the race to the bottom will only stop when it reaches rock bottom, and that is:
when a worker in an american sweat shop makes the same salary as a worker in an indian or chinese sweat shop.

[blindpig]

46. Correction: the Capitalist economy will never recover..

Capitalism is hideously wasteful, the mad competition, the Pentagon using 40% of the oil that this country uses.

A rational, planned economy without the self destructiveness of empire and the parasitical ruling class will make much better use of this dwindling resource.