Did the first relief well to kill the DWH miss the mark?

[Curmudgeoness]

This is unsubstantiated rumor as far as I am concerned, but I couldn't help but wonder if it is true. I was listening to a local radio talk show, and a guy who is working down on the gulf called. He said that the reason they have decided that they don't have to do the bottom kill right now is because the first relief well was not going to hit the oil well. They missed it. They are still trying with the second relief well. I have not heard a peep on this, but since this person is in the industry and is working right there, I have to give him some credence.

Just some food for thought.

[SammyWinstonJack]

1. Don't expect BP to give this any credence.

:silly:

[Curmudgeoness]

2. Or the government, apparently. If there is truth in this,

everyone is hiding it. You know that they would know if this happened.

[AlabamaLibrul]

11. Can't say that'd be a new concept for the past months of DWH. n/t

[Turbineguy]

3. From the Oil Drum

Nothing about a miss.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6856

[Curmudgeoness]

5. You are right, there is no info or comment referring to this.

Most of the comment seemed to be that the annulus is intact, and that is where they were aiming with the relief well.

[Uben]

4. Could be.....

...trying to hit a 24" diameter pipe with an eight inch drill collar 5000 ft below the ocean floor is not easy to do. However, with today's directional drilling capabilities, it is much easier. If they missed it, they could go back up hole and make another stab at it. The top kill they have implemented should be more than enough to seal the well as long as they put a more than adequate amount of cement in it. All the wells I have helped plug (approx 200) have bridge plugs set first, then they are sealed with cement according to the railroad commision's standard. Everyone I have done are land based wells, I have no experience on underwater wells.
I have no idea what the lack of having a bridge plug set first has on the probability of a blow-out, but I'm sure they took more than needed steps this time around.

We have tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of land based wells out there that are not plugged properly. I have seen many where the required amount of cement was not used, especially back in the eighties when all the major oil companies were abandoning leases. Of course, most all of those wells had lost production to the point there was no downhole pressure, but what happens in the event of an earthquake? Today, fracturing wells is common and that can alter the subsurface porosity and allow gas to reach zones where it wasn't previously, allowing the older plugged wells to be subject to extremely high pressure. But to be honest, I know of no such blowouts occurring in my area.

If you have ever been present on a drilling rig when they hit a gas pocket, you'd know what I mean. It scares the crap out of you!
The deepest wells I have worked are in the 5-6 thousand foot range. I can only imagine what pressures exists at twice that depth, which is what this gulf blow-out was.

[dionysus]

6. neat post

[Uben]

12. I worked for a wireline company....

...where we logged, perforated, and plugged wells. I also supervised a drill collar manufacturing dept in a factory for National Oilwell. Did another six years with National Supply Div. of Armco Steel back in the late seventies and eighties. I know a hell of a lot more about making the equipment than using it.

[northernlights]

7. and oil driller working on deepwater

called a local radio show...in PA? You don't actually know this person is working right there. Could somebody just be pretending, just to be a jerk?

Also, although the company working on this has a perfect track record, the fact is that it often takes multiple tries for relief wells to hit the target. When BP's well down in Australia blew last year, it took 5 attempts before they intersected the blownout well.

[Curmudgeoness]

9. Yes, a guy working in the gulf lives here. He has been down

there since the blowout, and occassionally calls back here to talk about what is happening there. He says he will probably be down there until December. PA does have oil, in fact, this is where oil was first drilled. Heard of Quaker State or Pennzoil?

Right now, he is working on trying to remove oil in the marshes, and he said that is not going well and it has been moving deeper into the marshes. It is not clean all over yet from what he reported.

[northernlights]

10. I come from PA, so yes I know oil was first drilled there

but that is not the point. You say yourself, he is working on trying to clean up oil from the marshes. That is not the same thing as working on the relief well. So it seems likely that anything he has heard is strictly rumor.

And also irrelevant, since relief wells often take multiple attempts to intersect the blownout well. It's a documented fact that BP's blowout in Australia required 5 attempts before it was intersected. They knew right from the start that it may take multiple tries, so it seems highly unlikely that even if there *was* a miss, that would be a reason to give up.

"When efforts got under way, the first four attempts — drilled on Oct. 6, 13, 17 and 24 — missed the original well.

A fifth attempt finally intersected the original on Nov. 1, and about 3,400 barrels of heavy mud were pumped through the relief well into the base of the original well. The spewing oil finally stopped Nov. 3 — more than 10 weeks after the original explosion."


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/03/us/03montara.html

[pitohui]

8. it didn't miss it has never gotten a chance to get there

they have never finished drilling the relief well, too tired to go over the long winded saga, go to nola.com and go back, it's a long story but first there was a storm, then they thought this other process might have worked, then there was a tropical depression...it just goes on and fucking on

i will be so fucking glad when this is over pardon my french