Independents vs. The GOP Base

[babylonsister]

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/76396/independents-vs-the-gop-base


Independents vs. The GOP Base
Jonathan Chait


Kevin Drum notices an interesting correlation in the gyrations of the Gallup poll of the House ballot:

It turns out that the Democratic surge is largely due to a sudden jump in support from independents. So what caused that? Well, I was struck by an unusual correspondence between two of Gallup's charts. It turns out that whenever enthusiasm goes up among registered Republicans, preference for Republicans goes down among independents. The pasted-together chart below — it's a little messy I'm afraid — shows five cases of a jump in Republican enthusiasm (top chart) along with the corresponding drop in Republican support among independents (bottom chart). It's not a perfect correlation, but it's a pretty good one.

Anyway. Here's my guess: every time Republicans do something that gets the tea party base excited, it simultaneously turns off independents. I'm not quite sure what caused the latest jump (NBPP fever? tax cuts pay for themselves? unemployment compensation obstructionism?), but apparently it was something.



I suspect this is a coincidence, but it's interesting enough to keep an eye on.

[Andy823]

1. My guess

Is that the majority of people in this country, and that includes democrats, independents and even moderate conservatives, know that the republican "BASE" is mad up of crazy people, and when crazy people are happy with the party, that spells trouble for those with half a ounce of sense! The morons in congress who are catering to the "nuts" in the party are doing so at the risk of losing the "sane" vote, and why they are doing this is beyond me. I heard someone on TV say yesterday that the republicans in congress "THINK" that only the really angry people will come out to vote this year, and they think that the means the "teabaggers"! I think they are wrong! I think the really "angry" people will be those who are sick and tired of the insanity that is going on in D.C. with both parties, but especially the republicans who just want to see this country fail so they can "maybe" get a few more seats in congress!

Sure the teabaggers are angry at their rallies, and they talk tough, but if you ask me they are going to turn out alright, but they are going to be voting for the mast right wing nut jobs on the ticket, and not party line republican running! The idiots running the republicans in congress have pretty much painted themselves into a corner, and are "PRAYING" the "NUTS" vote for them, but even they see that they may not happen! They have alienated the moderates in the republican party, the Spanish vote, the unemployed voters, and pissed off enough independents that the only hope they have are the NUTS! It's kind of amazing how they just keep on alienating voting blocks in order to please the nuts!