There won't be a "progressive" candidate in the primary in 2012 to challenge Obama

[scheming daemons]

In fact, there won't be ANY serious candidate challenging him in the 2012 primary.

If you think otherwise, you are ignorant of political reality.

If you are dissatisfied with Obama, you're only choices will be:

1. Stay home
2. Vote 3rd party or write-in
3. Vote GOP.

you can dream about supporting DK, Grayson, Dean, Weiner, Franken, or whoever.... Won't matter.....

<B>none of them are going to run</b>.

That's the reality you're going to have to come to grips with.

[Oregone]

1. Thats unfortunate

Its too bad that the incumbent will feel no leftward pressure and have any reason to shift in that direction during the primary. Id assume this implies more of the same (and if the status quo if offensive, that removes some motivation to even vote in the general to continue it). A serious "Share the Wealth" opponent could force Obama to alter his policies, but absent any such force, what hope do these people really have?


"That's the reality you're going to have to come to grips with."

Most people probably already understand this. Im not sure what this rare wisdom is intended to do

[county worker]

2. There is nothing new about this goggle this song. To Bobby by Joan Baez

TO BOBBY
(Words and Music by Joan Baez)

I'll put flowers at your feet and I will sing to you so sweet
And hope my words will carry home to your heart
You left us marching on the road and said how heavy was the load
The years were young, the struggle barely had its start
Do you hear the voices in the night, Bobby?
They're crying for you
See the children in the morning light, Bobby
They're dying

No one could say it like you said it, we'd only try and just forget it
You stood alone upon the mountain till it was sinking
And in a frenzy we tried to reach you
With looks and letters we would beseech you
Never knowing what, where or how you were thinking
Do you hear the voices in the night, Bobby?
They're crying for you
See the children in the morning light, Bobby
They're dying

Perhaps the pictures in the Times could no longer be put in rhymes
When all the eyes of starving children are wide open
You cast aside the cursed crown and put your magic into a sound
That made me think your heart was aching or even broken
But if God hears my complaint He will forgive you
And so will I, with all respect, I'll just relive you
And likewise, you must understand these things we give you

Like these flowers at your door and scribbled notes about the war
We're only saying the time is short and there is work to do
And we're still marching in the streets with little victories and big defeats
But there is joy and there is hope and there's a place for you
And you have heard the voices in the night, Bobby
They're crying for you
See the children in the morning light, Bobby
They're dying

[saracat]

3. I think it is unlikely but nothing is impossible. It was also unlikely a black man would be elected

president. The President's ban on abortions for high risk pool women has angered a lot of folks. The NAARAL, Planned parenthood and ACLU statements today may have riled up a valued constituency. The teachers are already angry, the Unions are angry, and the LGBT Community is appalled at DADT being deliberately put on the back burner. Environmentalists are unhappy about the continued expansion of drilling. The Home Mortgage Assistance Plan failed so those folks are out in the cold. Most folks who have health insuranse saw their premuiums go up. And the war continues while the Admin considers cuts to Social Security and Medicare. What happens in 2012 is anyone's guess. The Mayan Calender might even be correct and it is the end of everything. Sometimes I even hope they are right.

Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn about 2012, it is too hard just surviving and either way, we aren't getting any help from the government.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[saracat]

42. I do not hate or love this president. I have only met him twice. He is just a politician.

I voted for him because I am a Democrat. The statement about DADT was originally made by a Democratic member of congress. I have never ever claimed to speak for any community but I will say, as a member of the theatrical community, with a great many LGBT friends and associates, I have heard a great many different POV on DADT as in any community. Most GLBT,that I am acquainted with, those who I have worked with and who remain close friends, are very disappointed. Nowhere do I state that "all will be fine and dandy with the Gay Community if DADT is repealed." Because actually it would not. Many GLBT are equally disappointed with the President's stand against Gay Marriage. I also do not claim to speak for ALL women, yet most I know are appalled by the recent ban on abortion in the new high risk pool. Say what you will , many women are shocked by that. Planned Parenthood and Naaral as well express that thought. I could take my statements one by one but the simple fact is, there are , in fact folks that are unhappy with various issues I gave as an example. I do not post that as flamebait , merely as fact.
And I find it somewhat humerous that when anything good happens in DC. some insist on giving credit to the president. Yet when a negative takes place, they cite Congress as being at fault. Honestly, government really is a cooperative effort.

[Cal33]

96. I was feeling almost as badly as you do, but then it came to me

that the president is NOT the most powerful man in the world - which is only press exaggeration
and b.s. He's got so many different people to satisfy. And, in addition, there is not a
thing he is trying to accomplish that the Neocons haven't tried to block, filibuster, or stop
him from doing. And this is not even personal - the Neocons would do the same thing to any
president who is not one of their own.

I let this sink in, and it did help: We don't really know what difficulties he faces, do we?
And we'll never know unless we're in his shoes. So, cheer up a bit. :o)

[eShirl]

59. "The Mayan Calender might even be correct and it is the end of everything."

That is NOT what the Mayan calendar says.

[saracat]

80. I was being facetious. I don't really know what it says. Just know the movie 2012 was

allegedly based on it.My point is still the same. I actually don't care it everything ends in 2012.Some days I even think its not too bad an idea.I don't see anything worthwhile maintaining and I sure know nothing good is gonna happen in my lifetime.Everything I have championed seems dead in the water , literally and figuratively.

[flvegan]

4. Speaking of ignorance

you forgot option #4. I can be dissatisfied with Obama and still vote for him if he's the (D) candidate. I'm not given a choice 99.9% of the time given the state of the bullshit DLC and the media. "Here, vote for this one and like it, peasant!" should be the rallying cry of the dem party at this point.

on edit: btw, your coding sucks.

[Orrex]

86. :thumbsup:

:hi:

[undeterred]

5. Tough talk for the rabble rousers in the Big Tent.

[Ken Burch]

6. "Know your place" threads aren't going to help anything.

n/t.

[SeattleGirl]

8. Neither are pie-in-the-sky posts about insisting on a "truly progressive"

candidate to challenge Obama.

[Bobbie Jo]

89. +1000001

[Donnachaidh]

16. +1000000 n/t

[Name removed]

52. Deleted message

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[Hawkowl]

55. They will help Obama get unelected

And THAT would be bad...if he was replaced by a rethuglican, and not be a more liberal democrat.

These shut up and like threads will only infuriate liberals further and further depress voter turnout in a midterm election.

[DevonRex]

110. Ken, you usually say we're all doomed anyway, so what does it matter to you? nt

[Rosco T.]

7. second reality ... 1 or 2 equal 3. n/m

[Oregone]

12. Total bullshit if you do the math

1 or 2 are null actions, simply resulting in 1 less vote for the Democratic candidate (-1). A vote for the GOP would shift their vote total in a positive direction (resulting from a 2 point swing if one traditionally votes Democratic).

So, yeah, its a sweet talking point, but its bullshit. If you sit on the couch, you just sit on the couch. No harm, no foul. Its not "equal" to voting for either party to vote for none.

[Rosco T.]

107. Total Bullshit if you DON'T do the math.. and you didn't..

suppose

100 Dems
100 Thugs

10 Dems sit home with their thumb up their bum cause they 'want to teach the dems a lesson'
0 Thugs sit home cause they have to get out there and 'take back 'merika from them evil liburls'

game to Thugs...

do your own math

[Starry Messenger]

9. In this future you speak of, are there jetpacks yet?

I've never gotten to ask a real live time traveler that, I really want a jetpack. Those things are cool.

[metapunditedgy]

10. You make me feel stupid for voting for Obama (twice) in 2008.

Damn, I thought I was voting progressive. Thanks for the cup of STFU.

[paulk]

11. "political reality"

is that anyone predicting what's going to happen in politics in two days, much less two and a half years, is a goddamn fool.

[saracat]

14. Or someone that thinks history began in 2008.

[Odin2005]

53. "Accent Political Reality" = Bend over and accept being fucked by your betters.

NO FRAKKING WAY

[depakid]

13. Two of the last three Democratic Presidents hve faced a challenge

One over health care and the economy, another over a quagmire of a war.

So fans can holler and whine about it all they like,- but the history suggests that given the right conditions, primary challenges can and do happen.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

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[depakid]

22. Another thing I've thought now and again about the corporate right pandering

is that it may be directed at keeping a "moderate" corporate candidate (like say, Bloomberg) from running on a third party ticket- as Perot did (though Perot had somewhat different interests behind him than Bloomberg would).

And we may laugh, but he was undeniably correct about that "giant sucking sound."

[unkachuck]

15. then fine....

....fuck the Left, it's values and all it stands for....let's just have more and more conservative candidates and elected officials....only conservatism shall tolerated within the Democratic Party....you keep it, it's all yours....

4. start building a new political party....

[JHB]

18. Wasn't the "political reality" in July 2006...

...(i.e., the same point before the 2008 election) something along the lines of "Barak who?" and "President Clinton v2.0"?

I'll grant you probability, but don't confuse that with reality.

[saracat]

21. +1 million and the OP talks about others not understanding politics. Sheesh.

Literally, anything could happen before then. Obama could veer left(doubtful, but not impossible), an incident could happen uniting the country, a challenger could be found from where one least suspects, or someone more obvious.Nothing is predictable.

[metapunditedgy]

26. How about Obama throws a few half-chewed bones to the left before the election?

I wonder what they'll find to pacify the left after all the crap that's gone on.

[JHB]

44. There's a lot of lecturing in these parts about "reality" and "practicality"...

...by people who seem to miss or ignore other possibilities and opportunities to advance a Democratic agenda. I'm sure they're sincere, buy I'm never particularly impressed with their analysis, much less the lecturing tone.

[Donnachaidh]

19. Deja vu -- seems like we've got some values here we can all remember

STFU and STFD.

Isn't that the very same things the pukes did to moderates who wouldn't go along with the wingnuttery? Has it finally raised it's ugly head in the *Big Tent*? Because it sure smells like it has.

FAIL. Not even original. :shrug:

[saltpoint]

20. This is what I want to happen before 2012.

I want someone to inadvertently thumb through a stack of music composition files somewhere in central England only to discover there lost tapes of three more Nick Drake albums.

I think that would be an excellent outcome for the immediate future.

[MannyGoldstein]

23. Well that settles it.

I can't imagine that you could be wrong.

[Name removed]

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[SargeUNN]

25. good idea I am sure you will enjoy the next Republican President

Let's just hope it isn't one that completely sold to the Fascist element. Oh well, I hear fascism isn't that bad if you shut your mouth and follow orders.

[metapunditedgy]

27. "Shut your mouth and follow orders." Don't you think that's ironic given the tone of the OP? n/t

[SargeUNN]

32. here is my idea on that

I don't think Obama has gotten a fair shake. He has done things that never get attention or remembered, and has been fighting not only Republicans but Democrats as well and let's face it, we have been vicious on him. I think we forget the difference between constructive critism and destructive critism which often leads people to get defensive and ambush others. I am watching here in Arizona the gutless Democratic Party and Terry Goddard who is sounding more like Jan Brewer than a Democrat. I am disappointed with some Obama has done but I think he has done some good things as well under very difficult situations like a Senate that a minority party stalls so much, like a bunch of Progressives who have attack him since he took the oath of office. I heard it on my radio show and I watched as progressive radio lost ground. We progressives are part of the blame and if we don't learn to push forward. I have called the white house and gotten results and believe it or not sometimes you can. Just remember we certainly won't get that with a freaking republican.

[saracat]

43. Lotta nerve Sarge condemning Terry while demanding allegiance to Obama

and then talking about constructive criticism? Really? I agree the Democratic Party is gutless but not for the same reasons I think you may. They aren't out then supporting Terry and he is the only candidate we have. And as EJ Montini says, Terry may lose because "he is a decent , honest man." And what is pathetic is the lack of loyalty shown to a man who has served his state and his nation faithfully for generations. Arizona and the Arizona Democratic Party have a lot to be grateful to Terry for and his father before him. And BTW, the AZ Democratic party is gutless on the orders of DC.

And it really doesn't matter what happens in 2012 if Jan Brewer is our next Governor because for those of us in Arizona , the state will be completely destroyed. Maybe you have a lot of money and can afford the wipe out.I cannot.

[metapunditedgy]

47. Thanks for that. And here's my take.

I think we all agree that Obama campaigned much farther to the left than he has governed. So what do we all do now?

I'm an issues voter. I didn't vote for Obama, the person, and I didn't vote for Obama the Democrat. I voted for the guy who said point-blank, "Health care is a right, not a privilege," and lots of other solidly progressive things. His name happened to be Obama.

I think Obama intentionally attracted a lot of issues voters to his campaign; it was the only way a political newbie could beat established politicians like Clinton and McCain. Now those voters that he intentionally attracted by his message (Hope! Change!) are disillusioned.

What I really *don't* like is all the heavy-handed talking points coming down telling people to get in line. Many of them are insulting or even threatening. Or telling someone like me that I'm handing an election to the evil GOP if I vote on principle.

People who vote on principle (and I think that's a lot of people) are rightly offended by this crap. It's telling us we're saps for having principles. But that's only going to make me dig in my heels. I've been insulted by right-wing conservatives for being an idealist, and if "moderate" Democrats hurl the same insults, how will I respond?

[emilyg]

28. That line doesn't work anymore.

[SargeUNN]

33. doesn't matter

reality is a harsh thing sometimes and regardless of wheather or not you like it it will be served to you. You might be fustrated but the reality is we get another extremist right winger in you will face it then.

[LoZoccolo]

45. Why not? It worked in 2000.

What's different now? Have the laws of math changed?

[DonCoquixote]

87. Sorry to say it still does

I bet Hillary uses it when she runs in 2012.

[Oregone]

34. Demagoguertastic!

I think most people are pretty burned out on the Lesser-of-Two-Evils (TM) schtick

[SargeUNN]

39. regardless of burned out or not, Reality is what it is

I have been a Saints fan from the beginning, went through 20 years of no winning teams each year saying wait until next year. Next year finally came and the Saints had their first winning season but a few seasons later they were back to being a laughing stock. 43 seasons finally we won the Super Bowl and had I and other Saints fans acted like some here are acting we would never have won a Super Bowl. Just like with the Saints, we have so many problems that have been introduced since Reagan we are going to have to build, maybe slowly because the problems are so bad and so many and if we quit we assure more of the same. We are making progress with Obama but we must realize he is facing a tough job and we must not expect more than is possible and stop repeating right wing talking points.

[Oregone]

41. So then send a memo to the Democratic Party about this "reality"

Maybe they'll do something so part of their base doesn't perceive them as an "evil".

[metapunditedgy]

49. Here's my problem with that. I just don't think it's a credible scenario to

portray Obama as our progressive guy on the inside valiantly fighting for his campaign promises, but constantly being overruled by the powers-that-be.

I think he has falsified that scenario in many ways. But even if it were so, he could simply tell us. Tell us who we are fighting against. Give us somewhere to focus our energy instead of the upcoming elections.

All it takes is a few words from the bully pulpit. "Americans will never have true health care reform while Corporation X is allowed to profit obscenely. Real Wall-Street reform is blocked by Goldman Sachs."

If he is so completely powerless to even speak out in favor of the ideals that won him an election, what does it matter how we vote anyway?

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

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[dflprincess]

29. Don't stay home

show up but file a blank ballot. It's the only way to say "none of the above". If we don't show up it will just be assumed we were too lazy or not paying attention. A blank ballot lets them know we are watching them and are not impressed.

[Name removed]

64. Deleted message

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[Stinky The Clown]

30. IOW: My Way Or The Highway, Motherfuckers.

[Individualist]

76. Exactly!

That's the message DLC is trying - and failing - to sell.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

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[kenny blankenship]

38. The more you tell people their Traditionally Democratic opinions don't matter anymore

the more you convince them that a) staying home, b) joining 3rd parties or c) backing primary challenges are their only worthwhile options.

Come to grips with THAT.

[metapunditedgy]

50. Agreed; "STFU" is not going to motivate the same people who voted for "Yes, we can!" n/t

[laughingliberal]

56. +1000 nt

[BzaDem]

73. I would agree that they need to see reality hit them smack in the face before they come around

though seeing reality before the election is always preferable to seeing reality after the election.

[kenny blankenship]

78. The people you come here to insult have been facing reality & been DU members a lot longer than you

[BzaDem]

99. How does them being a longer-time DU member make them any less wrong?

The fact that someone is blatently wrong and needs to get a better understanding of reality doesn't change just because they have been at DU for any length of time.

[old mark]

40. There are no real "progressive" Democrats who are even close to running in '12...

there never were.

BTW, your other choice if you are dissatisfied with Obama is to vote for him anyway and look for a strong Democrat in 2016, which is what I plan to do.

I think Obama is too conservative, but I will certainly vote for him again rather than any of the other "choices" outlined in teh OP.

And I'd LOVE to see a good strong old style Democrat be elected President in 2016-for 2 terms.

I don't EVER want to see another republican president.

Even a "moderate" Democrat is better than any republican, and third party candidates have zero chance at election - it is a wasted vote.


mark

[JoePhilly]

102. Based on what I see on DU ... no one could pass the ideological test

to be a real "progressive".

You have to make every progressive goal your top priority. If Obama spends a few weeks on unemployment, health care, financial reform, Haiti, or the gulf spill, then clearly he did not spend enough time on 8 others steaming piles of SHIT he found left by the prior administration ... Iraq, GITMO, DADT, so on.

To be fair, we did give Obama about 1 year before the whining started. So its not like we gave him some room to work.

Maybe we should have noticed the lack of a cape, or the number of weak "side kicks" he can draw from in Congress. Every hero needs a decent side-kick, and the dems only seem to be able to "kick" each other. God forbid we focus on kicking GOP ass.

btw ... I'm with you overall ... I can't imagine voting GOP again in my life time. I just wish we on the left could learn to focus on the main enemy.

[old mark]

106. The left has traditionally seemed to attack itself - some people are not

considered "liberal enough" to meet some imagined standard of belief...

Almost reminds me of teh Teabaggers...


mark

[defendandprotect]

46. Well, guess we have to fight to change that reality . .

because democracy and other serious issues are at stake --

[Umbral]

48. Oh, I see. Thanks for the 'headsup'. I choose 2. nt

[Name removed]

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[SidDithers]

54. You're right...

K&R

Sid

[jgraz]

57. EPIC

FAIL

[Name removed]

58. Deleted message

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[saltpoint]

71. Now Jim. Just about all of us know a little about

something, don't we?

I'm not the best cook in town but I could make you a reasonably tasty lunch.

[Bonobo]

60. Actually I bet you're wrong.

And I think you know it.

But that's not the point of your OP, is it?

The subtext of your thread is actually "Shut the fuck up, Progressives."

You're not even 1/10th as subtle as you think you are.

[Name removed]

61. Deleted message

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[pecwae]

62. Gosh, thanks!

What else does the Magic Eight ball say our future hold?

[stray cat]

63. The word is "serious candidate" - but many DUers like to dream

the world thinks just like them and should and wants to elect a clone of themselves.

[DCBob]

65. The GOP would certianly love that to happen.. If there was a challenger the donations would....

pour in from Republicans.. Limbaugh would probably start something called "Operation Primary".. And the clueless progressives would just get suckered in and all they would accomplish is damage our President, the party and the nation.

[stray cat]

66. Its not rocket science -conservatives are smart enough to vote

and if progressives are too stupid and lazy to vote, the conservatives will rule the country and then the progressives can happily go back to pretending they're victims when they really created their own victimhood.

[spoony]

67. Amusing how much democracy scares you. nt

[scheming daemons]

95. amazing how much you don't fear a GOP takeover of US govt

short memory, short sighted.

[LWolf]

68. Probably. But just in case you're wrong,

and I'm sure you are wrong every once in awhile, I'll hold out for a primary challenger until it's too late.

Kind of like I did during the '08 primaries, refusing to support either of the two unworthy candidates left standing after a couple of primaries and a couple of caucuses, hoping for a brokered convention that didn't happen. I don't regret it. When my primary rolled around, finally, in late May, I voted for the candidate who was not leading in my state. Not because I wanted to see that candidate win the nomination; just to help balance the scales.

If there is a primary challenger, I'll have someone to vote and work for. Either way, I'll probably still be left with choices 1 or 2, as usual. Choice 3 isn't on my table.

[Scurrilous]

69. Indeed. n/t

[DevonRex]

70. You're right. Those are the choices. And as a poster above said,

choices 1 or 2 = 3. Pretty simple.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

72. Yeah. And, Gene McCarthy didn't have a snowballs chance against LBJ....oh, wait.

[IndianaGreen]

74. How come the DNC has announced the 2012 Presidential primary schedule?

Is it because we are having something called "free elections?"

We don't have "Presidents for Life" or a one-candidate elections, like the do in North Korea for Dear Leader.

[DCBob]

75. If there was one, he or she would be doing so in opposition to the Democratic Party..

it would essentially amount to an insurrection. No serious, legitimate Democrat would try it.

[Individualist]

77. Your condescension is noted and disregarded. Unrec.

[Radical Activist]

79. There may be a challenge from a more corporate friendly Democrat.

Obama will be the progressive candidate in 2012.

[asdjrocky]

81. That is just too funny.

[saracat]

82. I don't think that is possible unless you think Ben Nelson might be running?

[Radical Activist]

84. Put 2 & 2 together.

Wall street donors have stopped giving to Obama. Insurance, oil and coal are angry too. These are powerful people. They're angry and they don't care if bloggers think Obama isn't liberal enough. They'll look for a primary challenger either to win or weaken him for the general. It could be a moderate. It could be someone more liberal on social issues. Maybe even Hillary.

[saracat]

85. Hilarious. You actually believe what they tell you. Blanche Lincoln for prez!

:rofl:

[Radical Activist]

97. What who is telling me?

I don't believe everything I read from any random person online who attacks Obama for compromising too much. Do you believe everything they tell you?

What I notice is that descriptions of Obama's accomplishments are long and specific. "They" (as in the corporate press and most perpetually cynical online pundits) don't tell me much about those accomplishments. By contrast, most criticism I see of Obama from the left is generalized denunciation that exaggerates failings, stretches the truth, and lacks detail. That tells me something.

[saracat]

109. I actually don't get MY info from posters on the internets ,MSM, or gossip

I actually talk to some of my Dem elected officials,and other folks who work in DC. I take what they say very seriously. The list is long and speculative. Much which has been passed as not yet proven itself and some has already failed. Much good legislation, the WH itself has not wanted pushed and much on the list is only intent and the true nature of that intent is yet to be established.

[ibegurpard]

83. hahahaha

wait...
hahahahahaha

[DonCoquixote]

88. Yes there will

And her name is Hillary Clinton.

[asdjrocky]

90. If you seriously consider Hillary Clinton to be a progressive, you've not been paying attention.

Clinton is in no way, shape or form a progressive, not any more than Obama is.

[DonCoquixote]

91. I meant as the corporate friendly democraT

Hillary will tap into the white angry puma vote that hates Obama, and think the 60's generation needs to pave over Gen X.

[asdjrocky]

92. Doh!

Fair enough.

[Skip Intro]

100. Don, were you also among those who said Hillary would force a fight at the convention to try to

take the nomination from Obama?

Just curious, because this is about as ridiculous.

[DonCoquixote]

103. Yes

And I admit, I was pleasantly shocked, but there is too much blood in the water for her NOT to now. She can act like she is saving America from the left and right, which suits the centrists just fine.

[Skip Intro]

104. Ok. And I agree, she does have that opening now.

I just don't think she'd make such a move, assuming a political environment exists that is close to the one we are currently experiencing.

I can completely see her running again in 2012 should Obama not seek a second term, but given that things in 2012 will be somewhat akin to what they are now, I can't imagine her challenging him for the nom.

At any rate, thanks for being honest about your thoughts at the time during the convention. To be honest myself, I wasn't entirely sure how that would go.

:hi:

[Radical Activist]

105. Possibly.

If not, it would be a similar candidate with some kind of core constituency and/or the ability to gain supporters without explicitly stating their pro-corporate leanings. Maybe someone from the military or business world with no record in elective office.

At the same time, the Republican money establishment will look for a strong candidate to unite behind early, like they did for Bush in 2000. They didn't bother in 2008 since winning was such a long shot. It won't be the Palin sideshow circus act. There will be someone we have to worry about.

[n2doc]

93. That's some democracy we have here!

Granted, you are probably right. The rich will never allow us a real choice. And in 2012 we will probably be given the choice of Obama vs. (insert generic republican nutcase).

[cleveramerican]

94. I think you are exactly right

perhaps some very unserious fool might go and get some headlines for few weeks.
it will only be for the cameras.

[Stoic]

98. There wasn't a Progressive in the last election. N/T

[Skip Intro]

101. One possiblity you don't account for - he may not seek a second term.

He may decide that not seeking a second term might be in the best interest of the party.

Unlikely. Yeah, probably. Possible? Yes, definitely.

[LLStarks]

108. When was the last serious primary challenge for an incumbent president? nt