Looks like retail sales and consumer confidence improved in March (cue gloom/doomers)

[bigtree]

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Sales and confidence probably climbed, manufacturing accelerated and home construction rebounded, making a lasting U.S. expansion more likely, economists said before reports this week.

“What we’ve seen in recent months is a broadening of the recovery that, in our view, already makes it self-sustaining,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “One of the main reasons consumer spending improved pretty dramatically in the first quarter is simply that income growth is improving.”

The biggest increase in payrolls in three years may be a harbinger of additional gains as employers become more certain sales will grow, which in turn will further lift wages and buying power. Another report this week is projected to show the recovery isn’t stoking inflation, one reason Federal Reserve policy makers will probably keep interest rates low for months.

Auto dealers were among retailers seeing the biggest jump in demand last month as industry data showed car sales rose to an 11.8 million annual pace, the highest rate since August, when the government’s cash-for-clunkers plan was in effect.

Broad-Based Gain

Excluding autos, retail sales probably increased 0.5 percent after a 0.8 percent gain the prior month, according to the survey . . .

Less Pessimism

Households may be feeling less pessimistic as a result. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for April probably rose to 75, the highest level since January 2008, according to the survey median. The figures are due April 16.


read more: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-11/retail-sales-probably-increased-in-march-u-s-economy-preview.html

[Mika]

1. It should be up, with all of the new high paying jobs out there.

Not to mention the massive increase of wages in the middle class manufacturing labor sector.

:sarcasm:

[TheWraith]

2. Somebody unrecced this already. Sheesh. nt

[Nay]

3. Okay. I've seen several posts like this over the past few days. Can

we get something straight?

First, I would love to hail an actual recovery. But it's way too soon to even talk about a recovery, because the fundamentals of the economy are EXACTLY THE SAME as they were before the crash -- no one has taken a haircut for the fraudulent "finance" which caused the housing bubble; millions of homeowners have yet to be foreclosed upon because the banks don't want to take the hit(and millions of those homeowners aren't paying their mortgages, freeing up money for consumer spending; regulations are still not in place to restrain the banks from doing the same fraud all over again; wages and hours worked per week are still going down; etc., etc.

Any uptick we get right around now in housing is most likely due to the rebate, which ends Apr. 30.

Any uptick in consumer spending is most likely due to people who have stable jobs who don't want to delay some suspended purchasing that needs to be done. Mr Nay and I, who both have stable, high-paying jobs, went out and bought a new refrigerator and stove. People in our lucky situation have made some needed purchases (and some shopaholics have hit the mall after 2 years of deprivation), but this does NOT mean consumer spending has rebounded. There has been a bump up due to short-term circumstances. Look at the average wage, the hours worked weekly, etc., and you will see that there is no more money in the consumers' hands -- so this spending cannot continue.

[mdmc]

4. I went out with a couple of couple last night

they spent like there was no tomorrow..
yet
they had always spent like there was no tomorrow..

[Coyote_Bandit]

5. People who are not falling through the cracks

generally prefer to ignore the plight of those who are.

[bigtree]

7. I welcome those folks who can spend

. . . to do so in the store (and company) where I work. The ability of more folks able to spend in my store is the basis of my own well-being.

Sure, there are assholes who couldn't care less about those without means or income, but I appreciate my customers' business. This report is encouraging. We never expect there to be some unbroken stream of economic activity (hope for it, yes), rather, we work to take advantage of whatever opportunity exists at the time. That's a pretty good reflection of most retail. I don't accept (as some have) that the influence of the government's 'stimulus' efforts need be ephemeral or merely opportunistic. We can build on consumer confidence and increased spending to facilitate further growth along the line of employment.

[Coyote_Bandit]

11. It doesn't take a genius

to figure out that it is useful to welcome - and appreciate - those who can benefit you. No doubt your customers have the means and income to pay for what you're selling.

What about those who don't? Somehow I suspect that homeless folks - and others without visible signs of means and income - are not particularly welcome in your retail establishment. Likewise I suspect that highly skilled unemployed workers who are seeking work are often passed over because, well, they're too old or so highly skilled that you just assume their tenure will be brief. As a society and as individuals we often prefer to ignore the plight of such folks. After all, if it happened to them it could happen to us or to someone we love.

Perhaps if you were unemployed you would understand that waiting for job creation sometime down the road is really not a luxury - or an option for many. Such waiting means that savings and retirement funds and homes and assets of all kinds are lost. It means that people go hungry. It means that people lose the ability to dress appropriately and to travel to seek out employment opportunities. It means that people go without healthcare and, yes, sometimes die. It means that people feel defeated and lose confidence in themselves and find it nearly impossible to get someone else to believe in them and give them an opportunity to work.

And yet we have an economy that is built not upon real productvity but on consumption. And rather than address the fundamental economic challenges facing our economy we're just trying to reassemble Humpty Dumpty.

Good luck with that. IMHO Humpty Dumpty might benefit more from a good manufacturing job than from another lender financed shopping spree.

[laughingliberal]

12. Very well said! Thank you! nt

[bigtree]

13. this news isn't a slap at those who aren't benefiting from the increase

. . . and I'm as subject to this bad economy as anyone so the lecture about me understanding the unemployed is a curious one. If retail sales fall, my job and hours are at risk. Conversely, this is good news for the folks who will find work to meet the increasing demand.

It's amazing how many folks refuse to see the connection between retail sales (consumer spending) and real jobs and wages out here. Of course, it's not a panacea, but that increase (sparked by the administration's actions) can be built on - a likely prospect with this proactive administration.

[girl gone mad]

35. Some more headlines for your consideration:

I suspect there are connections here, as well.

http://www.cnbc.com//id/36229752">Consumer Borrowing Fell by $11.5 Billion in February

http://www.gallup.com/poll/126821/Underemployment-Hits-20-Mid-March.aspx">Underemployment Hits 20% in Mid-March (up from 19.7%)

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/15-reasons-why-the-u-s-economic-crisis-is-really-an-economic-consolidation-by-the-elite-banking-powers">The biggest banks in the U.S. cut their collective small business lending balance by 1 billion dollars in November 2009 (The 7th monthly decline)

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-global-manufacturing-pmi-rebound-slow2010-4">The Manufacturing Rebound Is About To Lose Steam

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62R1P620100328">An economic puzzle Bernanke can't solve (the jobless "recovery")

What frustrates many economic observers (and participants) is the way boosters of current Rubinomic/Reaganomic policy cherry pick a couple of good statistics and present them as ecce signum of a broad recovery while failing to address the fundamental complaints and criticisms of those who seek a basic and true economic justice. Then again, snidely dismissing anyone with a cognitive understanding of the very real structural problems in our economy as a "doom and gloomer" never really helps your cause, either.

[bigtree]

38. well, to be fair

I can't possibly represent all of the worst characterizations of 'cueing doom/gloomers' to respond to this report. A few actually did respond. Others, like you, have presented valid arguments about structural difficulties hindering economic progress and the real-life consequences of those inequities.

The economists cited in the report I posted seem to feel that this holds well for an expansion of these apparent gains. I'm heartened by the reports and their optimism; as well as by the uptick in consumer confidence. I think we're going to see more job recovery. Who really knows what actions or events will occur to sustain or undo that prospect? There is a recovery of some kind underway right now though . . .


here's an interesting analysis from today about our 'jobless recovery':

Employment Situation: Current Recovery vs. Other Jobless Recoveries

Sun, Apr 11 2010, 22:12 GMT
by Northern Trust Economic Research Department

The economic recoveries following the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions have been coined as "jobless recoveries" and it is widely predicted that the current recovery will be "Jobless Recovery 3.0." The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official agency that dates business cycles, is yet to announce that there is an economic recovery underway. In December 2008, the NBER identified that the peak of the previous business cycle occurred in December 2007. The NBER is most likely to identify June 2009/July 2009 as the trough of the current business cycle. In other words, the recession which commenced in December 2007 ended in June 2009/July 2009. Real gross domestic production grew in the third and fourth quarters of 2009, after posting declines in three of the four quarters of 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009. Assuming the recovery began in the third quarter of 2009, the U.S. economy is now in the fourth quarter of the recovery phase. It is a good time to check how the current employment data compare with the last two jobless recoveries.

Payroll employment during the three quarters of the current recovery matches very closely with the recoveries following the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions. Chart 1 is an index chart where the level of payroll employment in the trough is set to 100 and corresponding index levels are computed. An index of 102 would imply that payroll employment has risen 2% from the trough quarter, while an index level of 98 would mean payrolls have declined 2.0%. From Chart 1, it appears that payroll employment is still below the quarterly average posted in the third quarter of 2009. For purposes of comparison, the level of payroll employment in the first quarter of 2010 matches the level seen at a similar stage in 1991 and 2001 recoveries (see chart 1). Hiring in the period following the 1990-91 recession was markedly higher, particularly in the later stages of business expansion, compared with the 2001 expansion (see chart 1) although both were jobless recoveries. Payroll employment surpassed the level registered in the trough after six quarters in the1991 expansion whereas it took 10 quarters for payroll employment to reach the level posted in the trough of the 2001 expansion. In the first quarter of 2010 payrolls remain below the level seen in the third quarter of 2009, as mentioned earlier.



To put matters in perspective, the 1961 and 1982 expansions were marked with strong job growth. Payroll employment had risen 3.1% from the trough at the end of 4 quarters of economic expansion in these two business cycles (see chart 2). By contrast, payroll employment in the 1991 and 2001 cycles was below the level of the trough after four quarters of economic growth. What do we see in the months ahead? Payroll employment has risen in three out of the last six months, with an increase of 162,000 jobs in March. Although it is too soon to identify whether it will mimic the path taken after the 1991 or the 2001 recessions, the size of structural unemployment in the current recession supports forecasts of a lengthy period of tepid gains in payrolls.



The unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator and it peaks at the end of a recession or several months after a recession. As shown in chart 3, the unemployment rate peaked several months after the recession in the 1991 and 2001 business cycles which is different from other post-war business cycles when the jobless rate has peaked at the tail end of a recession.



The peaks of the unemployment rate in 1973 and 1982 recessions are closer to the current recession. However, the recoveries following these recessions were not "jobless recoveries" as there was a relatively quick drop in the unemployment rate when the economy turned around. Narrowing the focus on only the last three recessions, the unemployment rate has risen far more rapidly in the current cycle compared with the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions (see chart 4). Chart 4 plots the unemployment rate of the last three recessions such that comparisons are possible with the peak of a business cycle (or the beginning of a recession) as the reference quarter, denoted as "0" on the horizontal axis. The unemployment rate (quarterly average) peaked after seven quarters following the start of the recession in the 1990-91 cycle, while it took nine quarters in the 2001 recession. Putting it differently, the unemployment rate was advancing even after the recovery was underway in the both of these business cycles. This time around, the unemployment rate has peaked in the fourth quarter of 2009 at 10%. Therefore, the unemployment rate has peaked after nearly two years in each of the three jobless recoveries. A caveat is in order here, it is not determined yet, if the 10% reading of the jobless rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 is the current cycle high. Business cycles are unequal and have different attributes that stand out. The current recession is atypical in terms of the duration of the decline in economic activity and the depth. The extent of the structural unemployment in the current downswing of economic activity is likely to play a major role in determining the nature of hiring in the months ahead.

[girl gone mad]

46. One would be wise to remember that we have spent ~$30 Trillion dollars..

for these miniscule gains.

Now monetary moron Ben Bernanke has indicated that this money will need to be returned via middle class tax hikes or "entitlement" cuts, either of which will have a devastating impact on our battered economy.

[laughingliberal]

58. "Bernanke has indicated that this money will need to be returned via middle class tax hikes

... or "entitlement" cuts," Two approaches right there guaranteed to strangle any little 'green shoots' in their cradle and send the middle class or the poor into another downward spiral. That's if we survive the diversion of our money into the gas tank all summer at the hands of the speculators.

Is anyone thinking of any way to turn this around without destroying the people who are not in the top 1%?

[laughingliberal]

57. +1000 nt

[treestar]

26. It is hard to know what to conclude from this kind of thing

some people are homeless, so instead of building up the economy to maybe help them, we should doom and gloom and lose our homes, too?

Instead of being happy there is a recovery that will help the jobless, we should doom and gloom and lose our jobs, too? since the job is not going to start today it may as well never start, and everyone should lose their jobs?

Life is life and it goes on.

A person who is unemployed would hail the recovery. There is no question but that a REAL unemployed person would be invested in erring on that side.

[laughingliberal]

41. I'm a REAL unemployed person

and the administration has said they do not expect the unemployment rate to return to 8% until 2012. That is not all that encouraging for my 55 year old self.

I think those who still have jobs would do better to quit minimizing the effect of this economy on millions of people, be grateful they still have their jobs, and think about supporting the lawmakers in passing policies which will improve the situation for others

Life may, indeed, go on. But it doesn't feel like it when you're waiting for unemployment numbers like this to move and all you hear is how great everything is going. The President knows better than to engage in this kind of tone deafness. His supporters, OTOH, are not so perceptive at times. We get it that things did not change for you. But as long as that wheel's still in spin and the same problems which led to this crash are still in place, it could be anyone next time who loses in the big American lottery. It is time for some changes to the system so average Americans have a shot at realizing some benefit from working all their lives without having the Wall Street casino take it all as they near the home stretch.

[laughingliberal]

9. +1 nt

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Since you think the economy is part of a psycho-drama involving your imagined enemies...

...then why comment on it at all?

These are real numbers representing real-world facts affecting real-world people, not game pieces in whatever keyboard crusade you think you're engaged in against the so-called gloom-and-doomers.

This shit is beyond tedious... it's the economy, not a sporting event. It is a thing fit for analysis, not rooting.

[bigtree]

8. ask me a question (or make a comment) that actually relates to what I posted

I think some folks here and elsewhere make sport out of projecting the worst economic forecasts and predictions . . . I'm all for calling them out when positive economic news surfaces.

And I don't think you realize that there's a real person behind this keyboard who is also adversely affected by the faltering economy; in my town and elsewhere. You tell me what the point is in all of the pissing on positive economic reports? Constructive criticism is certainly welcomed, but many of the efforts to dismiss the positive effects of the recovery efforts by this administration have been incredible and sad.

I am not being dismissive of folks who are unemployed or underemployed. I've been hanging on the edge for years now. I'd like to offer them some hope and encouragement. I certainly don't need the gloom/doom bullshit thrown in my face everyday. So, here's a positive report (among a few others recently). In their face . . . as it is.

[laughingliberal]

10. "tell me what the point is in all of the pissing on positive economic reports."

I think the point is that those of us whose lives have been devastated, I mean devastated, by the economy find the popping of the champagne bottles over a half percentage point in consumer spending (excluding auto sales) a tad over the top. Yes, there are some signs of some meager growth. But there are 4 things we never see in posts like this:

1) There are still millions whose lives have been reduced to basic survival and it is obnoxious to call us 'doom and gloomers' and minimize
the pain and fear they are experiencing

2) Even the administration has said they don't expect unemployment to be below 8% before 2012 which means there's still going to be a whole
hell of a lot of us out here without jobs

3) Nothing has been done to address the problems which got us here and the gains in the stock market are likely another bubble that is
being inflated as Wall Street is still playing by the same rules they were before the crash.

4) Nothing has been or likely will be done to address the trend of the last 30 years where wages have been stagnating and declining so even
if the economy returns to where it was before Sept 2008, we are still living in a country where the working and middle classes are
losing ground and falling behind.

My issues with America's economic situation started long before the crash. I've been aware for well over a decade that I was working harder every year for less return. So, even before the crash I was hoping for a Democratic administration and Congress who would advocate some policies where growth in the economy would start resulting in workers realizing some of the benefits of that growth in their own pockets. Without this an improving economy just means more people at the top getting richer and the rest of us working our asses off (if we can get a job) to enrich them while we continue to struggle and fall behind.

edited format.

[bigtree]

14. nothing has been done?

That's where we divide. I think.

[laughingliberal]

15. Disagree all you want. Then tell me what legislation has passed into law to stop the abuses of

Wall Street. After that you can explain how anything has happened to stop the downward trajectory of wages we've been experiencing for 30 years.

[bigtree]

16. you mean you want to have the same debate that's been repeated over and over here?

You want to start one up in this thread? I'm just not up to it.

I think it's enough to say that this report gives me optimism, at least for the short term, that folks are spending again. That's a big part of my own survival. I'm also encouraged that this administration and Democratic Congress are still focused and working on finding solutions and remedies to the economic downturn.

[laughingliberal]

21. You're the one who challenged my statement that nothing has been done on some important fronts

I'm glad the report gives you hope. My husband's business went in the dumper with the housing market. He's one of 2 people in his business in this region who has not completely closed shop. He's 62 and been in business for himself since 1982. I lost my job at the end of 2007. I'm 55 now. The chance of anything turning this around enough for us to ever get back on our feet is slim even with an administration and Congress who cared enough to take some bold measures. But I think we fall into that group who will be lost and viewed as 'acceptable losses.'

You'll forgive me if a 0.5% increase in retail sales (excluding autos) doesn't have me popping the champagne yet. There were grave problems with our economic system before the crash which have been driving the working and middle classes out of existence for 3 decades. Not only have we done little or nothing to solve the acute problems which led to the crash, but no one even seems to be acknowledging the long standing systemic problems which started with the supply side model and continue to this day, now on steroids.

[Rex]

17. I you don't need the gloom and doom bullshit, then why goad doom and gloomers

into your thread? Doesn't make sense imo.

[bigtree]

19. ooh

you got me

[laughingliberal]

It makes perfect sense if you're trying to suppress the vote in 2010. nt

[bigtree]

31. how do you 'suppress the vote' by cueing 'doom/gloomers' in the title of a thread?

I'd think that good economic news would favor our party, since we're the only ones actually voting to do anything at all about jobs and the unemployed. How would pessimism and dismissing good economic reports compel folks to vote for our party in November?

[laughingliberal]

37. I think we would do better by the party to show more empathy

towards those who are still devastated by this economy. I think the President actually strikes the right tone on this most of the time by reporting the positive signs he sees very cautiously and emphasizing there is still much to do. Now, that is the right tone. His policies for getting more help out here leave a lot to be desired. But, anyone with a passing knowledge of economics knows we are still in deep doo doo here. The 'party on' posts that try to sell people on how great everything is going are obnoxious to millions who remain unemployed and millions more who are, by no means, living as well as they were able to 2 or 3 years ago. It is tone deaf and it does not help the cause of reelecting the party in power.

The constant bashing of those within the party who disagree with the 'party line' which has become, of late, the DLC line is guaranteed to keep voters who are dissatisfied home in November. Even the most level headed will, eventually, decide a big FU is in order when they are constantly told they don't matter. Even Clinton knew how to strike a tone of empathy. Actually, President Obama knows how to strike that tone. Some of his 'supporters' however are doing him no favors with their line of attack whereby they call suffering people 'doom and gloomers.'

IOW, if I were a right wing troll determined to see the Republicans gain power in November, one line of attack would be to make sure I kept telling those who are still suffering that things are going great and they're all just a bunch of whiners and doom and gloomers. I would point out every tiny sign of improvement and use it to show them how they are wrong to keep feeling they are suffering. Yes, minimize and discount the pain they are in and tell them they are a bunch of whiners. That'll get 'em! With a message like that, how can we lose?

[bigtree]

42. you've attributed a lot of bullshit to me

I haven't 'minimized and discounted anyone's pain' or said a word about 'towing a party line'.. You're fighting your own demons here. (and your reasoning about the effect of 'cueing gloom/doomers' in the title of this thread - or calling 'them' out in the gentle way that I have here - is hopelessly tortured)

[laughingliberal]

43. calling people who are not ready to break out the party hats on a report of a half percent increase

in retail sales 'doom and gloomers'is uncalled for. You are entitled to your opinion but there are grave problems in this economy which are not going away without some real changes to the system which have not happened and have not even been proposed for the most part. People who recognize this are not 'doom and gloomers.' They are the people who have been paying attention for 3 decades to what is happening in our workplaces and our lives and who saw (as they have been predicting) the whole thing come tumbling down on their heads. Instead of heeding the warnings of the people who saw this coming and now see it about to happen again, labeling them 'doom and gloomers is the order of the day. Not persuasive and, generally, alienating.

[bigtree]

48. again, I never made any of the analogies you're complaining about, so

. . . you're arguing against your own strawmen.

There are also some indicators that jobs production will continue to increase in the short term in response to the cycle of increased spending. There is also going to be an uptick in jobs in manufacturing to facilitate the replenishing of reduced inventories. Goldman-Sachs thinks this is temporary, but other reports see this extending the job recovery which is inching along.


from Bloomberg: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-11/double-dip-doesn-t-figure-in-recovery-with-inventory-rebuilding.html

_____The economy expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the most in six years, with inventories providing the biggest boost by adding 3.8 percentage points to gross domestic product, based on data from the Commerce Department in Washington.

Manufacturers added to stockpiles in March following 46 months of contraction, based on a factory index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management in Tempe, Arizona. Truckers benefited, as their business increased on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first quarter, according to a survey of about 25 companies by Stifel Nicolaus & Co., a regional broker and investment banker based in St. Louis.

“The most frequently cited reason for the improvement in volume was ‘inventory replenishment,’” Managing Director John Larkin and his fellow analysts said in an April 6 research note to clients . . .


Companies also will feel compelled to boost stockpiles because it’s taking longer to get the materials they need to run their plants, Greenspan, 84, said in the ABC interview.

“They’re going to have to build inventories to protect their production lines at an ever-increasing pace,” he said. “And that is a self-reinforcing process.”

Manufacturers reported that deliveries from their suppliers slowed in March from February, according to an index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management. It rose to a more than five-and-a-half year high of 64.9 last month from 61.1 in February. The higher the index, the slower the deliveries.

The shift in the inventory cycle will lead to more hiring as companies increase production, LaVorgna said. Manufacturing payrolls rose in March for the third consecutive month, which hasn’t happened since 2006.

[laughingliberal]

49. I distinctly saw "(cue gloom/doomers)" in your headline

Spin it, call it a strawman, or whatever else you want. It is a slap at people who still see grave problems here. Even the administration states they do not expect unemployment to return to 8% until 2012. Party on, if you like but calling people who think this is little enough to cheer about 'gloom/doomers' is a slam and not helpful.

[bigtree]

50. that didn't give you license

. . . to attribute the worst of your own diatribe to that mild rebuke.

[laughingliberal]

52. If you think 'mild rebukes' are winning the day, then carry on

I think it's the wrong way to go in today's reality. I'm glad there was a half percent increase in retail sales. I don't expect it to trickle down to our life anytime soon. And I think I'm not different than most people in my situation. If you think it helps your cause to snark about it then, by all means, carry on. I think it's damned tone deaf. and thank the gods, our elected officials have enough sense not to be saying things like this to the population right now.

[treestar]

27. I really can't imagine what their point is

It's really sad. It's like they just want things to get worse and want the 90% still employed to lose their jobs, too. It's like they want everyone to lose their homes. And prefer this outcome to any recovery.

they claim to be unemployed but don't want to hear that finding a job is going to be more likely.

[laughingliberal]

30. "don't want to hear that finding a job is going to be more likely."

With even the administration admitting unemployment is not likely to return to 8% until 2012, my 55 year old ass isn't gonna start singing, "Happy Days are Here Again" over a 0.5% increase in retail sales (excluding automobiles) quite yet.


"It's like they just want things to get worse and want the 90% still employed to lose their jobs, too."

No, it's like those who haven't been devastated in the downturn want those who have been to STFU and join the party. :woohoo:

Like why can't all you hungry people just be happy for the rest of us who have enough food? It's obnoxious.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[laughingliberal]

22. Pony=a job, enough to eat, hope of ever finding another job, a place to live. nt

[Subdivisions]

28. Do you know why was that post deleted? n/t

[laughingliberal]

29. I haven't a clue. nt

[JVS]

44. Was it some kind of derisive mockery containing the term pony?

I didn't see it, but I know that isn't kosher.

[laughingliberal]

45. Yes. It was. nt

[Subdivisions]

20. Get this through your heads:

There can be no meaningful recovery of the GLOBAL economy for any sustained period while oil production is in decline! PERIOD!

Any economic recovery is an illusion that will vanish in a puff of smoke as soon as the recovery puts pressure on oil production.

[marmar]

23. Ah, the recovery chimera.....I think Mariah Carey says it best:

But it's just a sweet, sweet fantasy, baby
When I close my eyes
You come and you take me
(On and on and on)
So deep in my daydreams
But it's just a sweet, sweet fantasy, baby

[TexasObserver]

24. recommend

It's good news.

[tabasco]

25. LOL! They showed up in force to beat down some good news. n/t

[girl gone mad]

32. lol..

10% unemployment is hilarious.

[tabasco]

33. Boohoohoo!

Maybe you think LOWER retail sales and LOWER consumer confidence will bring more jobs.

The rest of us have brains.

[girl gone mad]

36. Could have fooled me.

[laughingliberal]

39. Maybe you think ridiculing and laughing at those who have seen their lives decimated by this economy

will win them over and get them to the polls in November. Interesting strategy. Yeah, bowl of thin gruel of crust of bread beats starving to death but not by much. Treating people as if they are bunch of ingrates for not being thankful for the 'feast' is obnoxious and guaranteed to drive them away.

[walldude]

40. Well, when they are done with the ridicule they will move on to

FEAR "So a Republican would be better?" They are learning well.

Some people think a band aid is enough to cure a broken arm. Sorry folks, the bone has to be put back into place and then set or it will remain broken.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

47. We're not ridiculing and laughing at people who have actually had their lives decimated.

But instead we're ridiculing and laughing at people who want the economy to decimate the lives of other people, so they will stay away from the polls in November.

[laughingliberal]

51. I don't see anyone bashing on people who have not had their lives decimated and hoping their lives

are decimated by the economy before November. I do see a lot who call those who are not making it in this economy 'whiners' and 'doom/gloomers.' My preference would be to start seeing some policies that would, once the recovery really takes hold, provide for the growth of the working and middle classes again-something to not only get us out of this pit but also to reverse the trends of the transfer of all the wealth upwards. And I would like to see some regulations of the markets to get us out of this boom/bust cycle that wipes out the wealth of the middle class every time it looks like they might get a leg up on the next rung of the ladder.

It is undeniable among most now that we have lived through 30 years of watching wages stagnate and decline for most while most of the money went to the top 1%. Reversing the downturn is good. But just returning to the kind of growth we've seen over 20 years where all the benefits went to the top is not all that inspiring. When we see years at a time where worker productivity increased but wages were flat or declining, we know everyone has been working harder just to stay in the same place or fall a little behind. I'd like to see some fairness restored and just getting back to where we were in 2007 isn't great. The administration has said they do not expect to see unemployment back to 8% until 2012. With that in mind, it would be a good idea to start talking about their plans to put us back on a track of upward mobility for workers that we have not seen since the 60's.

The President, in his speeches, has struck the right tone by acknowledging some improvements but also acknowledging that we still have serious problems. His supporters, OTOH, tend to be a little tone deaf and it is a turn off. If he follows his concern for the serious problems we still have with some plans to help reverse the trends for workers, we have a shot at retaining power in the House and Senate in November. If people keep overblowing every little uptick which is likely to be followed by another little downtick, it's not going to fool anyone and it's going to piss them off and make us seem out of touch. This is analogous to George the 1st at the grocery store without a clue what a gallon of milk costs or John 'the fundamentals of the economy are sound' McCain. As Democrats, I assume we are smarter than that and are better able to keep our ear to the ground.

edited for grammar

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

53. Backwards B, carved on the face.

[laughingliberal]

54. No, I don't have a backwards B carved on my face

And there is nothing wrong with my assessment that the Democrats in office are doing a better job of conveying some empathy for those whose lives have been damaged by this economy than their supporters often do. And thank goodness for that. I don't want to see a Democrat starting with "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" while real people out here know the fundamentals of their economy are not strong. It is tone deaf and will not win votes. The President has been smart enough not to try to sell that message and continues to state we have more work ahead of us. I'd be happier to see some more solid proposals at this point but, at least, he's more in tune with the mood of the voters than some here.

[northernlights]

34. would that housing recovery please come to my street?

My 2nd year on the market. No visits so far. I've just knocked another $15K off the price.

One person tried to see it last summer. The /45u34&#$@#@!^$!!!!!! realtor didn't return their call. :grr: :grr: :grr: fuck coldwell fuckem.

[conspirator]

55. I am not buying jack shit until I get a decent pay. Some happy clowns may be spending their money

but they will be crying in a couple of months.
That and also some fake statistics.

[laughingliberal]

56. I think we might be seeing some who could not put off some purchases much longer

I know last year we replaced none of our wardrobe and have been pretty threadbare all winter. The onset of some warmer weather and we really had to get a few things to work in for summer. Of course, we buy at the 2nd hand store but I'd bet a lot of what we see right now is the purchasing of some essentials which are long overdue. Gas prices here hit an average of $3.05 per gallon. I'm sure any spending people might have planned for the next couple of months will now be diverted to the gas tank.