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Your original post states what I have come to understand over the last decade. I go one step further, however, in describing our economy. Rather than consumerism, I describe it as devourerism. It is the only accurate way to convey the rate at which we are taking the fruits of the earth - iron, coal, gas, water, forests, oil - and turning them into what is, from a long-term environmental perspective, and from a very limited 'time of useful usefulness' to humans, junk. We dig up the iron, the bauxite, the oil - frame into some plastic fob or another that stays in our home from 1 day, to, in most cases, less than 10 years. It is then irretrievably lost in a landfill forever - no way to recover all of the steel, aluminum, paper, plastic, gold, silver, that sits in the landfills (most gold is recycled into the system; most silver, however, is lost forever in electrical components, solders) and make it of any use again. At any rate, I have also reached the same neo-feudal order concept that you have. I followed this simple logical path, and it was the only logical conclusion:
What is the problem with natural resources? Are they too short on supply? No. It is simply a matter of overuse. It is a matter of overpopulation. Quite simply, we could continue on our current devourist cavort for a thousand years if the population were stemmed. Studies have been done. Without petroleum, which forms the basis for all farming (petroleum bases for fertilizer, and for the tractors, and the trucks, and the workers, and the short-haul trucks, trains, then long-haul trucks to bring it all to a market that is energized by fossil fuel electricity, where devourers have driven there in gas-fueled autos), our earth could only support, from some conservative estimates, a population of 80M, and the most liberal estimates, 500M. It is the simple math of arable farm land on the earth per human being. With modern petroleum-powered technology, it takes from 1.2 to 1.7 acres to feed one human being for one year. It takes 5 with moderately decreased means such as organic farming, which, despite its' name, still consumes massive amounts of fossil fuels, and over 10 acres per person per year using primitive and/or traditional means including use of animals to pull plows. This does not even account for crop failures, blights, over-farming (ala dust bowl Oklahoma), or other disasters, which cannot be compensated for by trucking massive amounts of food cross-country by donkey, bull, or horse, but can only be accomplished by use of oil-powered vehicles. And no, you can't use a Prius, as ultimately, even its' battery power comes from a fossil-fueled electrical outlet. You can't use a solar-powered vehicle, as they are not powerful enough to haul truckloads of food. I could discuss this for pages, but essentially, when we are without oil, which will occur this century, the population will find itself naturally falling to the 80M to 500M that the earth can sustain without modern farming, or, the powers-that-be will cause this population trimming to occur unnaturally, which will leave the remaining humans with oil and other natural resources to continue devourerism.
With a population reduced by 90 to 99%, based on the pure mathematics of the acreage of available arable farm land to feed the human population without fossil fuels, the remaining humans will need to aggregate in population centers to make available every possible acre of farmland. This is where the neo-feudal system will develop. There may or may not be centralized government at this point. This depends on whether the population reduction is orderly or disorderly. A new feudal class, complete with knights, serfs, peasants, and self-declared royalty, is the only form of government that could possibly arise under such circumstances. It will not be the romanticized version of feudal society. It will be the pure, ugly, elite-run barbarism that truly existed in the middle ages, where the strong survived and the weak were victimized. This is because of the power differential that will still exist between the haves and the have-nots, only it will be much worse.
For example, during the French Revolution, citizens were able to rise up virtually using pitchforks against swords. How does one rise up against a tank with a pitchfork? Or even a shotgun? The highest place royalty could formerly retreat to was a tower or a mountain. Now, they can retreat to the heavens. We can be fired down upon with weapons from 1,000 feet, 50,000 feet, and space. There is no hiding from the technology of satellites that can see in the infrared spectrum and count every campfire in a forest. This means that you cannot retreat like a hermit into the boreal forest - if the powers that be wish to find you, they will. So the future holds a planet devoid of resources to support a population even of the size we have now, the power differential has grown so huge that rising up is really not a possibility, and the only hope is to live in yet another form of servitude as a peasant, rather than as a devourerist.
People do not understand the simple mathematics of supply, demand, and the ability to meet demand. If I close 20 people in a room, leave them with a barrel of apples and 5 gallons of water, then bury the room in concrete, I ask you who will have the apples, who will have the water? It will be a bloody struggle, and in the end, even the winner will die. And yet, people can not understand that we are in a sealed system - the earth is just as sealed as a concrete room. You can't grow apples on the moon, or even 100 feet in the sky, far closer than the moon. Iron doesn't last forever, nor does oil, nor coal, nor gas, and by extension, prosperity. At current rates, coal is gone in less than 300 years, natural gas in less than 150, and oil in less than 75. It will be catastrophic, however, far earlier than that. As oil wells cross the 50% mark, it becomes geometrically more expensive to extract the oil. Current oil wells are capped at around 25% remaining because of the great expense. In other words, the availability, and affordability, of oil for plastic (think of all the plastic in operating rooms, farms, and grocery stores), transportation (the trucks and trains and planes that bring you food, prescriptions, the farm equipment that is able to take 10 acres and make it feed 10 people rather than just 1), and roads (asphault) - the list goes on endlessly, will strangle the have-nots in less than half that time - less than 40 years.
The only possible outcome is neo-feudalism for the (lucky?) few.
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