Homicides in the city of Buffalo are up 50% from last year.

[TheWraith]

It's like I've been telling people for years; homicides are linked to the general crime rate, and the crime rate is linked to poverty. Economy goes down, crime will go up. You want to get rid of violent crime in this country, deal with poverty, and deal with the sustained idiocy which is the drug war. It's really that simple.

[scheming daemons]

1. Need more info. If it went from 2 to 3, which is a 50% increase, not a big deal

If it went from 2000 to 3000, that *IS* a big deal.

[ejpoeta]

2. I am sure that if it were YOUR family members, then any increase would be of concern...

as it is to the people who are living in this area and watching people get murdered left and right. Any increase is cause for concern.... Buffalo has already had 35 murders this year. That may not seem like much to some people, but this is just buffalo... There are other areas surrounding buffalo that have their own statistics. When do we start being concerned about the murder rate increasing??? At what point does it warrant discussion or doing something about it??

[scheming daemons]

4. You're missing the point...

If a city's murder rate went from 2 to 3... that is an unremarkable increase and it is not statistically significant... even though it is technically a 50% increase.


If it went from 2000 to 3000... even though that is ALSO a 50% increase... it is much more statistically significant and could mean something larger is going on here.


The OP didn't list the number of murders... just said a "50% increase". Without the numbers, that doesn't mean anything.




Also... concerning the OP's claim that this is due to a sinking economy..... we'd have to see if a similar increase is happening in other rust-belt cities.

If it is NOT happening elsewhere... then it is a Buffalo-specific problem and not related to the national economy.




So... my original point still stands... "Need more info".

[TheWraith]

7. You're perfectly correct.

Talking about a few extra deaths isn't statistically significant. Even the total increase in the local crime rate (which is being reflected in other areas) isn't really a significant blip in and of itself. But the correlation between the loss of jobs and the rise of crime is noticible, and it's one that's been seen over and over in this country. That's the point I'm trying to make.

As of 2006 or so, the violent crime rate in the US was down 30% from 1993, when it was at it's peak. What changed? An improved economy, and 100,000 more cops on the streets.

[TheWraith]

3. It was 35 for all of last year. It's been 38 just so far this year, on track for 50. nt

[Tim01]

5. Recomended. nt

[spin]

6. Criminal gangs cause many homicides...

Updated: Wednesday, 26 Nov 2008, 10:53 AM ESTBUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) -

No one investigates like News 4. It is a problem that is not going away anytime soon. Gangs are in the Buffalo area, and law enforcement experts say they're growing by recruiting new members as young as 14-years-old.

Pastor Darius Pridgen said, "Just drive through some of the inner cities. You'll see little Saddam Husseins right there."

They are as young as 14-years-old.

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown said, "They are killing themselves and they're killing other people."
http://www.wivb.com/dpp/news/gangs_in_buffalo_part_one_20081118

Note: the video link is well worth watching.

[pampango]

8. In Dayton (OH) they're way up, too, but the WaPo had an article that homicides are way down

in big cities this year. Not sure what to make of that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071902154.html

"Violent crime has plummeted in the Washington area and in major cities across the country, a trend criminologists describe as baffling and unexpected. The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides."

"Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false."