http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF30Df02.htmlIndia could be staring at an imminent drought. It's not the delayed national budget, but the specter of a delayed - or, in large measure, denied - monsoon that's giving everyone sleepless nights. The Indian Meteorological Department has stopped short of baneful predictions in an economically stressful year - mindful of the political implications - but the signs are dire.
It has been a heart-breaking June, with the fabled wet wind from the southwest absent in most regions normally on its itinerary. The northern plains are bone dry, with temperatures regularly touching the mid-40s in centigrade. They are the last port of call for the complex, mobile weather system which usually arrives there in July after drenching the vast swathes of peninsular India in June. But the monsoon has not even kept this date, for a number of reasons.
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The fear of drought - it would be the first in seven years - looms large. With power and water scarcity setting in, tempers in the cities are soaring almost in tandem with the heat.
After the predictions were made public, the first knee-jerk reaction came from Punjab. The state banned the use of air-conditioners in government offices, boards and corporations - despite the sweltering heat - so eight hours of uninterrupted power could be supplied to the farm sector. Some states have begun advertising to persuade farmers to switch crops and are even inviting tenders for cloud-seeding. The government is trying to keep things calm. Agriculture Secretary T Nanda Kumar has acknowledged the concerns but has insisted there is no reason to panic yet. A delayed monsoon could still make up for the loss.
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In a nutshell, a truant monsoon plays havoc with the kharif (rain-dependent, summer) crops. The implications can be better understood when seen against what are otherwise mundane statistics - 60% of India's 1.1 billion population survives on agriculture. That they account for only a fifth of India's national income only underlines the peril-ridden nature of their economics.
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For instance, the Tehri hydroelectric power station in Uttarakhand supplies power to New Delhi and its hinterland. The water level in its reservoirs has shrunk to dangerously low levels - 741 meters against a normal level of 830 meters during monsoons. The Bhakra dam, the biggest hydroelectric project in northern India, has water flowing in from the mountains. Its reservoir levels remain lower than they were last season.
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not good at all - thirsty and hungry people MOVE or die - climate change has caused more and more people to MOVE. and die.