Sestak Leads Specter 52%-44% Among PA Dems Who Know Both Candidates

[babylonsister]

Sestak Leads Specter 52%-44% Among PA Dems Who Know Both Candidates
by: Chris Bowers
Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 13:25


Sign up to volunteer for Joe Sestak today!

Reddit upvotes appreciated.

I have obtained a complete copy of the GQP polling memo, commissioned by a labor-funded 527, on the potential Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary. You can read the entire memo here. (15 page PDF). The toplines, showing Specter ahead 55%-34%, have already been reported upon in a number of sources. However, there is a lot more to see than those numbers.

Here are just some of the highlights: (May 14-18, 608 registered Democrats likely to vote in the primary, MoE 4.0 for the entire group, larger for smaller subsets)

1. Specter leads generic Democrat 50-37: In addition to the trial heat against Sestak, the poll also tested Arlen Specter against a generic Democrat, showing Specter with a 50%-37% advantage. However, a closer look shows that Specter's support is soft:

Specter vs. Generic Democrat (page 5)
Definite Specter: 22%
Probably Specter: 23%
Lean Specter: 5%
Lean Generic: 3%
Probably Generic: 14%
Definite Generic: 20%

Notably, "Definite Specter" and "Definite Generic" begin statistically even. There is a lot of room for persuasion on both sides, and no clear advantage in hard-core support.

2. Sestak already leads among voters who know both candidates: Perhaps the most remarkable number of all in this poll is that Joe Sestak is already leading Arlen Specter among the 30% of voters who know both candidates (p. 4-5):

Among voters that know Sestak (mostly in the Philadelphia inner suburbs) he enjoys an 18 - 4 favorable-unfavorable ratio, and among voters who already identify both candidates, Sestak actually leads Specter in the initial head to head 52 - 44 percent.

With numbers like these, claims from Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell that Sestak has no chance are unmasked as either absurd or desperate. Sestak is already winning among Democrats who know both candidates. Rendell might have even seen this poll before he made those remarks, since it was completed ten days beforehand.

more...

http://openleft.com/diary/13695/complete-spectersestak-polling-memo

[L. Coyote]

1. Sestak's numbers will just go up too!

[aquart]

2. Is that for a primary fight in the Dem party?

Because Obama is trying to prevent a Senate primary in New York for Nobody Gillibrand's seat.

[NV Whino]

3. yes

Obama and Reid said they will support Specter. They may have a surprise coming. I hope so.

[aquart]

5. Good luck.

My state is making me just sick right now.

[Yupster]

14. Specter should have retired

There's no way he's going to win the primary unless everyone else is forced out of the race.

My prediction is he doesn't make it to the primary. He announces that he's retiring to spend more time with his family.

[Mz Pip]

4. It's a start.

Now Sestak needs to get himself out there and have all of PE become familiar with him.

I don't really know the demographics of a PE. It's a big state and seems to have a pretty wide spectrum of political leanings. Kind of like CA. How probably it is for a liberal Democrat to win a Senate seat in PE I do not know, but Barbara Boxer wins in CA so I would think he's got a good shot if he can get his face out there. We've got some serious conservatives here in CA though none of them have mangaged to crack any of the big offices in quite a while. THey sit comfortably stewing in their safe gerrymandered districts knowing they have no chance of ever going anywhere.

[valerief]

6. Good start! nt

[Captain Hilts]

7. That's VERY interesting. It's too soon to poll 'likely voters'. Damn. nt

[blm]

8. Run, Run, Run Joe, Run.....

.

[RamboLiberal]

9. As a PA resident I think this bodes well for Sestak

PA is a closed primary and usually for primaries the voter turnout is not that big. Dems wanting to vote for Sestak or vote against Arlen are going to be more motivated to turn out than the generic voter who doesn't know Sestak. Only downside for Sestak is that PA voters tend to be older so we could get the Specter Dems turning out.

[femmocrat]

13. I agree. I don't think PA dems will appreciate having Specter forced on them.

People aren't paying much attention yet, but once they get to know Sestak, I think they will support him over that self-serving opportunist Specter.

[Lugnut]

15. Speaking as a PA Dem, I don't appreciate it.

The state party machine annoints candidates without any input from PA voters. I'm happy to see that Rep Sestak is ignoring the machine and doing what he thinks is the right thing to do. The biggest obstacle I see is the lack of name recognition state-wide. I'm hoping Sestak can overcome that.

[NC_Nurse]

10. Great! Where else can we unseat crappy Dems? Baucus? Nelson? Landrieu?

That would be so great!

I can dream, can't I? :)

[BlooInBloo]

11. Job #1: Get people to know him.

[MadBadger]

12. Originally Sestak was down 30 points, now its 20. Obama was down 20 once, he lost by 9

Hopefully Sestak can bring it even closer and win.

[AllentownJake]

16. I got a phone call from the Sestak campaign today

I'm going to stop by their office tomorrow.

[LittleApple81]

18. can people outside the state support him with money? nt

[AllentownJake]

19. Yep

www.joesestak.com

[Senator]

17. K&R