Undersea oil could help thaw U.S.-Cuba trade

[IDemo]

Untapped reserves provide powerful incentive for change in relations

By Nick Miroff
updated 2:23 a.m. MT, Sat., May 16, 2009

WASHINGTON - Deep in the Gulf of Mexico, an end to the 1962 U.S. trade embargo against Cuba may be lying untapped, buried under layers of rock, seawater and bitter relations.

Oil, up to 20 billion barrels of it, sits off Cuba's northwest coast in territorial waters, according to the Cuban government -- enough to turn the island into the Qatar of the Caribbean. At a minimum, estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey place Cuba's potential deep-water reserves at 4.6 billion barrels of oil* and 9.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, stores that would rank the island among the region's top producers.

Drilling operations by foreign companies in Cuban waters are still in the exploratory stage, and significant obstacles -- technological and political -- stand between a U.S.-Cuba rapprochement eased by oil. But as the Obama administration gestures toward improved relations with the Castro government, the national security, energy and economic benefits of Cuban crude may make it a powerful incentive for change.

Limited commercial ties between U.S. businesses and the island's communist government have been quietly expanding this decade as Cuban purchases of U.S. goods -- mostly food -- have increased from $7 million in 2001 to $718 million in 2008, according to census data.

* Less than two months worth at current global consumption rates, even assuming all 4.6B barrels are extracted (highly unlikely).

[imdjh]

1. scale

* Less than two months worth at current global consumption rates, even assuming all 4.6B barrels are extracted (highly unlikely).

Someone says something like this about every oil field discovered these days. If gold were discovered in Cuba, would someone poo-poo it and say that it should remain in the mountains because it "only" amounts to some fraction of the world's known gold reserves? Or would they look at it in terms of its value to the Cuban people?

Sorry, but Cuba has as much right to profit from its natural resources as we did and do. Now is a shitty time to try to change the rules on developing nations.

[IDemo]

2. Fail

I'm not "changing the rules" on Cuba, merely pointing out that painting this as a huge leap forward in global oil supplies or US oil company portfolios is incorrect.
The media is fond of describing every oil patch as a massive discovery, when the actual numbers simply don't add up.

Cuba does indeed have every right to utilize its resources, but the article is all about what a great opportunity this will be for American interests. For the US to
attempt to make this the 'stepping stone' to better relations is ridiculous.

[imdjh]

3. I think there is a rightful assumption that US relations are better than other

I think that from a US perspective, having normalized relations, including business relations with our near neighbor and cultural cousin is preferable to the other possibilities. The US brings something valuable to the table- stability and protection. For all the shit that flies back and forth, Cuba has known the entire time that we were here should they need us, be it for a natural disaster or aggression from another country. Yes, we have our own interests and we tend to see Cuba as being within our sphere which isn't surprising considering the history. This would be a "stepping stone" to better relations, but it would not be the first stepping stone. We rent Guantanamo from Cuba, and for all his outward protest, don't kid yourself that Castro didn't use that to his advantage. We do trade with Cuba. And while we play games in this regard, we do have diplomatic relations with Cuba as well as daily flights to and from so something must be going on there.

The game we play with Cuba is and has always been stupid- but it has also been mutually beneficial in a twisted and corrupt way. Having the evil empire to the north has given Castro a politically useful boogeyman on whom he could blame all his problems, while having him next door has given the embargo contingent their own politically useful boogeyman.