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Yes, yes, I know this is a hypothetical question with no relevance to issues today but it is nevertheless something that has always interested me
There seems to be an assumption among many that RFK had a good chance of winning the nomination before he was assassinated. Such a view is shared by historians such as Arthur Schlesinger Jr. and there is reasonable evidence to suggest that it may have been possible. After all the evidence was that Kennedy was gaining the edge over Senator McCarthy in the primaries and was emerging as a formidable challenger to Vice President Humphrey for securing the nomination. It is reasonable to assume that Kennedy would have secured a number of delegate votes on name recognition alone and he had strong support from minorities, some sections of organized labour and other key Democratic constituencies
OTOH, others -including I'm led to believe Kennedy's own campaign manager (though I could be wrong about this) -believe that Humphrey would have won the nomination regardless. Again there is reasonable evidence to suggest that this is true as well. After all, Humphrey had the strong endorsement of the party machine and the party bosses who in those days had much more influence and power over the Democratic Party than they do now. It is worthwhile noting that Humphrey won the nomination without contesting any of the primaries -although he did field a few favorite son surrogates in various states -so presumably RFK's victory in the primaries would have counted for nothing. Also, given the antaognism between McCarthy and Kennedy, it is not unreasonable to speculate that the anti-war/progressive bloc would have been split between the two candidates and this would have given Vice President Humphrey an additional edge. Furthermore LBJ hated RFK with a passion and was determined not to have him win the nomination. I've read somewhere (not sure if it is true) that LBJ had some potentially damaging tapes of RFK (probably provided and/or doctored by J Edgar Hoover) which he was planning to release before RFK was assassinated. A sitting President has enormous influence over the Democratic Party and LBJ certainly was a master of arm-twisting and manipulation to achieve his own ends (please note that this is not a criticism of LBJ -he used this to constructive means to achieve much in terms of progressive reform for America including the civil rights legislation)
Yet it is interesting to note that party bosses may not have been as unsympathetic to the Kennedy machine as has been portrayed. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, for instance, was regarded as somewhat of a Kennedy sympathizer and was reportedly lukewarm in his support for Humphrey. It has been reported that, at the 1968 Democratic Convention, he was seeking to persuade Senator Edward M Kennedy to seek the presidential nomination against Humphrey and was prepared to rally delegates to his cause. Bob Shrum, in his memoirs, recounts that Daley's son William (Gore's campaign manager) came home one night during the 1968 convention and found a whole lot of Edward Kennedy campaign memorabilia in the house that Daley Sr. signalled he was preparing to use in the event that Kennedy agreed to run for the nomination. As it happened, Kennedy declined and Daley remained loyal to Humphrey. But, had RFK lived, it is not unreasonable to speculate that Daley would have been prepared to sway influential votes his way. In fact I've also read that Kennedy, just before his death, had been in negotiations with Daley which were reportedly progressing in a way which would have guaranteed a favorable outcome for his campaign.
So what say you DU'ers? Do you think RFK had a chance of winning the nomination? And how you do think RFK would have done against Nixon?
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