KEVIN PHILLIPS: Numbers Racket - Why the economy is worse than we know

[Phred42]

Ok, this has been posted before but given the mess we're in and some of the questions appearing here - It's time for a review:


Numbers Racket
Why the economy is worse than we know
KEVIN PHILLIPS

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Pollyanna-Creep-Ec...

If Washington's harping on weapons of mass destruction was essential to buoy public support for the invasion of Iraq, the use of deceptive statistics has played its own vital role in convincing many Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it actually is.

The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy—the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which serves as the chief bellwether of inflation; the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which tracks the U.S. economy's overall growth; and the monthly unemployment figure, which for the general public is perhaps the most vivid indicator of economic health or infirmity. Not only do governments, businesses, and individuals use these yardsticks in their decision-making but minor revisions in the data can mean major changes in household circumstances—inflation measurements help determine interest rates, federal interest payments on the national debt, and cost-of-living increases for wages, pensions, and Social Security benefits. And, of course, our statistics have political consequences too. An administration is helped when it can mouth banalities about price levels being "anchored" as food and energy costs begin to soar.

The truth, though it would not exactly set Americans free, would at least open a window to wider economic and political understanding. Readers should ask themselves how much angrier the electorate might be if the media, over the past five years, had been citing 8 percent unemployment (instead of 5 percent), 5 percent inflation (instead of 2 percent), and average annual growth in the 1 percent range (instead of the 3–4 percent range). We might ponder as well who profits from a low-growth U.S. economy hidden under statistical camouflage. Might it be Washington politicos and affluent elites, anxious to mislead voters, coddle the financial markets, and tamp down expensive cost-of-living increases for wages and pensions?

Let me stipulate: the deception arose gradually, at no stage stemming from any concerted or cynical scheme. There was no grand conspiracy, just accumulating opportunisms. As we will see, the political blame for the slow, piecemeal distortion is bipartisan—both Democratic and Republican administrations had a hand in the abetting of political dishonesty, reckless debt, and a casino-like financial sector. To see how, we must revisit forty years of economic and statistical dissembling.

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ALSO

The only Republican I can think of worth listening to. This thing is 3 hours long and worth the time.

CSPAN-2 BookTV

In Depth: Kevin Phillips

Upcoming Schedule
Saturday, December 13, at 9:00 AM EST

http://www.booktv.org/program.aspx?ProgramId=9941&Secti...

Or watch now

About the Program
Author, former political strategist and historian Kevin Phillips will be our guest for In Depth on Sunday, December 7 (LIVE from 12 to 3 pm ET). Mr. Phillips was formerly a special assistant to the U.S. Attorney General in 1969 and was a regular political contributor to CBS News, NPR, and the Los Angeles Times. He is the author of over a dozen books including, "The Emerging Republican Majority," "Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich," "American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush," and his latest book "Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism." You can join the discussion by calling in during the program or by e-mailing your questions to [email protected] .

About the Author
Kevin Phillips is the author of "The Emerging Republican Majority," (1969) "Mediacracy: American Parties and Politics in the Communications Age," (1974) "Post-Conservative America: People, Politics and Ideology in a Time of Crisis," (1982) "Staying on Top: The Business Case for a National Industrial Strategy," (1984) "The Politics of Rich and Poor: Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath" (1990), "Boiling Point: Democrats, Republicans and the Decline of Middle-Class Prosperity," (1993) "Arrogant Capital: Washington, Wall Street and the Frustration of American Politics" (1994) "The Cousins' Wars: Religion, Politics, and the Triumph of Anglo-America" (1999) "Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich," (2002) "William McKinley," (2003) "American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush," (2004) "American Theocracy: The Perils and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money" (2006) and "Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism."

[xchrom]

1. i love kevin philips -- unless i'm mistaken -- he did leave the repuke party. nt

[Phred42]

2. He admits to voting for Kerry and Obama but

I think he still considers himself a Republican. Just NOT a Reagan or Bush republican.

He has also said that he will come back to the Republican Party once it "De-Bushifies itself"

That's how bad he thinks Bush and Reagan have been

PS: Hates Clinton too.

[blondeatlast]

4. That's what I thought as well. the Republican Party that Philips knew is NOT

the party today; far, far from it.

It's a damn pity that he doesn't get way more attention--he warned us where the Rs were pushing us a long, long time ago.

[xchrom]

7. if one voted for kerry -- it's very, very long walk back to

the republican party.

now i know it's personal -- but i sincerely don't think you can get there from where he is.

[blondeatlast]

3. worth listening to, indeed--Philips is a voice on the economy I trust--and thank God someone

like him is mentioning how the RW has systematically skewed the numbers.

Philips is a true patriot, IMHO.

[Donnachaidh]

5. the first link isn't working. n/t

[OneBlueSky]

6. try this . . .

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Pollyanna-Creep-Economy1may08.htm

[Phred42]

8. Thanks

[Hidden Stillness]

9. Different Categories, Most of Them Fake

I was listening to Kevin Phillips explaining about this, on a Book TV program about a month ago or so, (talking about newest book), that the Federal Government keeps several categories of unemployment statistics, and only releases the ones that make them look good, rather than the ones they know are more accurate, and reflect a problem. They give out "U-2" when they should give out the more comprehensive "U-5," or something like that. They TRY to cut the numbers down, excluding things such as "people who have given up trying to find work," "new graduates from college-high school who have not found jobs," "people who need full-time employment bit who have only found minimal part-time," etc. The first time I really heard of the unemployment numbers really being fucked around with, for propaganda, so that they no longer represented honest calculations, was during Reagan (of course). They counted a person who worked ONE HOUR A WEEK at a paid job, as "fully employed"; also, it was Reagan who first put the military, the armed forces, on the "employment" numbers, which is absurd, as they are unrelated to the corporate world and are Government-enlisted people. Clinton, of course, did not correct any of this. The numbers are fake, falsely narrowed down, when really they should cover many more unemployed people--and the Government actually knows and has the correct figures, they just don't publish them.

Interestingly, right near Southeast Michigan/Detroit area (where I live), the Province of Ontario just released official unemployment statistics for the City of Windsor, just across the River and with the same automotive industry base. Their figures were above 10% unemployment now, near 11%. This is much more likely to be real, and some areas, according to Phillips, are closer to 20%; Michigan and Ohio must be among them.