A prediction about cars and gas prices..

[Fumesucker]

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior..

Gas will stay low enough for most people to get comfortable driving gas guzzlers again.

Then the next time gas goes through the roof (and it will) all those people will end up forking billions and billions of dollars over to the oil companies.

It's happened before and this is exactly how Americans reacted, sales of large gas guzzlers are already starting to pick up just a few short months after $4.50 a gallon gas in a lot of America.

Americans appear to have less collective memory and intelligence than a planarian.. Planaria can learn to avoid unpleasant stimuli.

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. Hopefully those land barges won't be produced anymore.

But I'll be we revert to our old wasteful habits.

[Fumesucker]

3. Americans are loathe to give up their land yachts..

It's not like this is anything new..

The car makers don't want to give up the land yachts either, they make a lot more money on those than small, fuel efficient cars.

[liberal N proud]

2. And you are left sucking fumes

:rofl:

Sorry I couldn't pass that up.


Serious note:

Recent studies are showing that for now at least, most people are not reverting to old driving habits in light of lower prices at the pumps.

Saw a report on the local news last week about it so I can't find a link. But given time, people will revert. All any activist can do is keep punching and pushing for change.

[Fumesucker]

6. I'm *already* sucking fumes, thank you very much...

:)

[liberal N proud]

35. That was easy to see

[Marrah_G]

4. Congress needs to enact higher minimum mpg standards for cars and trucks.

THAT will help turn things around.

Your plan only hurts those least able to effect the change you seek.

[ayak9]

15. How about a dollar a gallon gas tax?

Drivers would decrease consumption, and the gov could bankroll research for higher efficiency cars, infrastructure and road repair, job creation.

[elocs]

16. Undoubtedly a good idea, but the downside is that it hands things back to Republicans.

Americans tend to live lives of quiet desperation and are wrapped up with what is happening now. They would certainly punish the party that dared to add a $1 tax to a gallon of gas. It's political suicide.

[Marrah_G]

17. That's a 33% tax

It still hurts those least able to afford it. Least able to afford to change. Least able to effect change at all.

I can't change any more. As it is I will sit at my son's school for an hour and a half after work until he gets done with football rather then going home and coming back for him. I do all my errands to and from work. The only way I could drive less is to quit my job and take a minimum wage job within walking distance if I could find one.

I am not alone in this.

The drop in gas prices hasn't made me drive MORE. It's allowed me to spend a little more on food and to buy heating oil.

The price of gas effects the prices of EVERYTHING that I buy. Food, Heat, etc.

There are millions more families like mine out there. We live paycheck to paycheck. 100% of our income goes to cost of living.

It's bad enough being fucked by the oil companies. But when I see people who are supposed to be on the side of working families suggesting things that will effectively break us, it makes my blood boil.

[Fumesucker]

19. No, too much...

No more than fifty cents, and a tax rebate to lower income people.

[KharmaTrain]

5. It Would Be If There Weren't Other Factors At Play

The lower price of gas does little when you don't have a job to drive to. The economy is in gridlock...businesses are suffocating under a massive credit crunch, the debt market continues to expand and billions have been wiped out of savings and portfolios; money that used to go for nicer cars and vacations.

Recently, my brother-in-law sold his gas hog for a Honda and it wasn't the price of oil that was the prime cause, but the drop in his overall income and spending power over the past year. The oil price rise and ensuing speculation has rippled into every sector of the economy and the yo-yo price only complicates a situation that only gets worse as Paulsen mismanages it.

[Fumesucker]

8. The economy wasn't that hot during the last gas crisis either...

Remember stagflation?

[KharmaTrain]

12. I Remember Well To Well

The 70's crisis was a lot different than what we see today. We don't see gas lines...one that affected everyone, these price rises have taken a particular toll out of the poor and middle class, the rich will find a way...many own stocks in the oil companies so the money that went into the pumps came back to them in dividends.

The stagflation was also a product of the huge Vietnam debts and inflation...the gas crisis masked over a lot of reckless fiscal policies of both Nixon and Ford. We're in a far worse situation now...we've gone from stagflation to outright depression...earnings aren't staying static, they're falling now...even for the rich.

Cheers...

[PVnRT]

24. ...and remember what car companies suddenly hit it big?

Hint - people weren't buying Super Bees.

[Fumesucker]

26. Can you say "Prius"...

Sure, I knew you could. :)

[Marrah_G]

28. I'd love to say Prius!

Unfortunately there aren't any cheap used ones out there.

Someday though, I will have one!

My minivan is getting traded to a tiny compact car as soon as my boys are gone off to college.

[Fumesucker]

30. I very nearly got a nice Prius for $6 grand right before gas prices started to soar..

It was sold before I got there though..

Older model but Prii have an excellent repair record.

[Marrah_G]

31. wow that is a good price

still out of my league- at least for now. Hopefully that will change in a few years.

[Fumesucker]

32. I wuz gonna have to grovel to the bank...

And I don't do that lightly. :)

[glowing]

7. Right now, people who can't unload their land boats are sighing a collective relief.

There are a lot of guzzlers still sitting on lots.. They'll try and unload them where they can.

[Fumesucker]

9. They're already starting to move...

Not fast yet, but as time goes on they will become more popular again.

[DainBramaged]

10. People don't believe the gas crisis was real, they are 'sure' it was manufactured

The Hummers, Escalades, Suburbans, Land Cruisers, Titans, Sequoias, and Tundras are thundering on the highways again, and demand for big, heavy trucks and SUVs by people who don't need them is way up.


If they can get credit to buy them.

[Fumesucker]

11. I think it was to some extent manufactured..

Probably not entirely but speculation surely played some part in that ridiculous peak.

Edited to add: But that doesn't mean it won't happen again.

[salguine]

13. Look—notice how gas prices plummeted right after the election? Because

people—a lot of people—had begun talking seriously about doing something about our dependence on oil. And I think that this time, the oil companies decided they actually meant it. Have you noticed how people start talking about alternatives when, and ONLY when, the price of gas is through the roof? Big Oil has noticed it.

[Fumesucker]

14. Yes, that's a data point I have factored in..

Which is why I think gas will stay low for a while.

The oil companies know how Americans think and are playing us for chumps.

[elocs]

18. I agree, but I think more Americans are learning the lesson.

Time will tell.

[NNN0LHI]

20. Yep its already happening

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/102508dnbusf150.39fa812.html

Incentives, lower gas prices help bring sales of full-size pickups back to life

07:47 AM CDT on Friday, October 31, 2008
By TERRY BOX / The Dallas Morning News
[email protected]

Left for dead in May, big pickup trucks lumbered back to life in August, and sales should get another boost with the early arrival this month of the 2009 Ford F-150.

Although the auto industry as a whole is staggering through its worst sales period in 15 years – battered by high fuel prices in the summer, a massive credit crisis and looming recession – pickups have reclaimed most of their lost market share, according to sales data.

At their peak a few years ago, the trucks held a market share of about 15 percent of all new-vehicle sales in some months. When gasoline prices skyrocketed in the spring, their share plunged to a low of 9.2 percent.

In August and September, with incentives as high as $9,000 per vehicle on some models, pickup trucks rebounded to 13.9 percent of the market, according to sales data.

"This spring, when things looked kind of scary, we really didn't know what was going to happen to the segment," said Doug Scott, truck marketing manager for the Ford Division of Ford Motor Co. "Fortunately, we have seen a rapid recovery." snip

As the truck market crumbled in the summer, Ford postponed the arrival of its restyled 2009 F-150 from October to January to allow its dealers more time to sell off their bloated inventories of '08 F-150s.

Boosted by high incentives and lower gas prices, however, the old trucks sold more briskly than Ford had anticipated, prompting dealers to ask the company to begin sending them the new F-150 this month – basically back to Ford's original plan.

Most Ford dealers already have a couple of new F-150s on their lots. The Dodge Ram began arriving about a month ago.

[Fumesucker]

25. Thanks for that.

This sequence of events is roughly as predictable as gravity.

[guitar man]

21. not me

I'm still riding my motorcycle every chance I get, rode into work this morning 40 degrees outside. Filled it up for $4.00. :D

[NNN0LHI]

23. I admire your grittiness

How far did you have to ride if you don't mind me asking?

Don

[guitar man]

29. about 5 1/2 miles

It's about 5 1/2 miles from my trailer here in OKC to work. My home is in Tulsa, which is about 100 miles from here. I commute from Tulsa to OKC on mondays and go home on fridays. During the week I stay in a travel trailer I have set up down here.

I make the 100 mile commute on the bike through the warm weather, generally March through October or so. Sometimes through the winter I'll get a weather window and do some of the long commutes, but 100 miles in 30 degrees or less is really a drag, so I just use the bike for the short weekday commutes during the winter.

[Fumesucker]

33. 100 miles in 30 degrees or less is really a drag

Do tell..

I have a motorcycle too and a cold suit for riding, but I wouldn't want to ride that far in that cold a weather without heated gloves, boots and at least a vest.

I've ridden my bicycle in below zero before though and it's not so bad, fifteen miles one way with only moderate protection, my fingers never even got cold and I only had lightweight wool gloves on.

[guitar man]

34. I did it a couple times

after I got the current bike I made the 100 mile trek in 30-35 degree weather a couple times. It didn't bother me to do such things when I was younger, but now I'm just getting too old for that kind of stuff.

It's supposed to be almost 80 when I get off work today, so I think I'm going to take a nice long ride after work just because I can. ;)

edit to ask: What kind of motorcycle do you have?

[IDemo]

37. Me too, it was 32 degrees here for Friday morning's commute

I'll continue to ride, down to about 20°, as long as there is no snow or ice on the road.

[guitar man]

41. ouch

20 degrees hurts my old bones, but I'll do it if I have to. Let gas hit $4 again and I'll be riding at subzero. :scared:

[PVnRT]

22. Again - People. Aren't. Buying. New. Cars.

In case you missed it, Detroit is clamoring for cash to avoid bankruptcy. They would not be doing that if, suddenly, the gas-guzzlers that hadn't been selling were starting to drive off of the dealer lots.

You really think that people who are going to cut back on travel on gift-buying this holiday season are going to say, "Hey, gas is under two bucks! I guess I'll trade in the Cobalt/Civic I got last year and get a Navigator!"?

[Fumesucker]

27. But sales of big gas guzzlers are soaring already..

See post #20..

Yes, overall sales are down but the percentage of F150s sold is near what it was a year ago.

[DainBramaged]

36. December wholesale gas futures are currently @ $1.11 per gallon

heating oil is $1.77 a gallon. We'll see $1.49 a gallon NATIONWIDE by Christmas at this point. How do you convince those not as politically or environmentally sensitive as we are that the run up of gas prices over the past couple of years wasn't manufactured by the oil companies?


Anyone???

[IDemo]

38. This cycle won't repeat indefinitely

As global oil supplies contract and exports decline, even "demand destruction" won't bring prices down as we have become accustomed to.

[taught_me_patience]

39. This happens every single time

Everytime gas dips for more than a couple of months, truck sales spike. Truck sales are spiking as I type this. American consumers are complete idiots.

[dysfunctional press]

40. "Planaria can learn to avoid unpleasant stimuli"...

NOBODY and no species can match the american tax-paying public at avoiding "unpleasant stimuli"...if there's an ounce of pain for themselves in a political idea or even a societal necessity, they'll avoid it like the plague.

why do you think there's so many crappy parents out there? how do you think we keep getting into the same kinds of conditions?

"no PAIN, no gain" when applied to american society generally means "no gain".