McClatchy: GOP suddenly worried Dems could hold 60 Senate seats

[babylonsister]

GOP suddenly worried Dems could hold 60 Senate seats

By David Goldstein | McClatchy Newspapers


WASHINGTON — Looking for election night drama?

Don't stop at the historic presidential contest at the top of the ticket. Nearly a dozen Senate races around the country could reshape politics on Capitol Hill.

"Democrats have a realistic shot at getting a supermajority of 60 seats," Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said. "Races we never really dreamed would become competitive are now within the margin of error."

Even red-state strongholds such as Georgia and Kentucky are suddenly in play.

Blame it on President Bush, who's been deeply unpopular for the past two years, and on the public, which is downbeat about where the country is headed. The financial crisis was the equivalent of a roundhouse right, and opposition to the Iraq war remains strong.

Republicans have known for months that they were going to lose seats this year. Some have said that dropping only five or six Tuesday would be a "good night."

The outlook in the House of Representatives isn't much better. Congress-watchers predict that the Democrats could add 25 to 30 seats to their 36-seat majority.

"The GOP motto is, 'If we didn't have bad luck, we wouldn't have no luck at all,' " said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "What has gone right for them? There's just a lot of throwing up of hands right now."

The big question is how many Senate seats will flip?

more...

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/55021.html

[aquart]

1. "LUCK"?????? They think this is happening because of LUCK?

Oh, the poor things.

[jayfish]

3. Crap, You Beat Me To It.

Luck? :eyes:

Jay

ON EDIT: Is crap a swear word?

[aquart]

21. No, it's a euphemism. So, yes, it is.

[Winterblues]

7. And it isn't just Bush* either

It is Republicans period. America is sick to death of them. They are hateful, mean, horrible people and "mean spirited" just doesn't describe them any more..

[Eric J in MN]

2. The Republicans aren't about to be rejected at the polls due to "bad luck"...

...but due to bad conservative ideas.

[EFerrari]

8. And bad management. It's the corruption.

People can't wink at it any more now that their homes and jobs, pensions and health care are all disappearing.

[justiceischeap]

4. The GOP apparently just took their collective heads out of their collective asses

I mean, where the hell have they been? One of the reasons for Dean's 50 states push was to enable just this. Have they really NOT been paying attention? Did they think the Democratic party was that irrelevant?

[tanyev]

5. They made their own bed.

Now they get to enjoy lying in it.

[SteppingRazor]

6. It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't put the odds at even 50/50.

I imagine the Dems will pick up Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Alaska, definitely.

That's six.


After that, Minnesota and North Carolina are pretty good bets.

That's eight.


The Dems need one more for 60, but where's it coming from? Wicker's pulling away in the most recent polling out of Mississippi, and the Dem is still trailing in Georgia and Kentucky. Months ago, I would've banked on Maine, but that's looking like a sure thing for the GOP now. I think, in all probability, the Dems will wind up with a +8 on the night, 59 seats.

Of course, if just one of these barely-leaning-red races goes the Dems way, they're made. They only need one. And beyond that, 59 seats can get a lot of shit done that 51 seats can't. Easier to persuade one or two Republicans to end a filibuster than persuade 10.

[racaulk]

9. And we may need to pursuade Lieberman as well.

Especially on any votes concerning Iraq. :eyes:

[SteppingRazor]

12. He can be bought. n/t

[babylonsister]

11. A girl can dream. I want to see McConnell go down myself.

His state is 'leaning rethug' which isn't necessarily a good thing. I hope we're all deliriously surprised!

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002980731

Finally, CQ Politics gives the re-election bids of Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell , Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss ratings of “Leans Republican.” But come on. These are known-quantity incumbent Republicans who haven’t been tainted by scandal or blunder. They should be safe, not leaners. If those seats flip, we’ll be talking chickens in the deep-fry, not canaries in the coal mine.

[SteppingRazor]

13. I'll be floored if Collins loses. I think Maine is out of Dem hands this cycle...

but McConnell and Chambliss are both vague possibilities. And, I agree, I'd love to see The Chinless Wonder go down. McConnell's largely responsible for the do-nothing Congress we've got now.

[wryter2000]

14. The two Maine Rs

I wonder if they can't be persuaded to do the right thing now that the Repignican stranglehold has broken.

I'd rather have 60 of us (heaven help us if we need Lieberman, though), but we could still prevail without 60.

[SteppingRazor]

17. I dunno. Even the most moderate of Republicans votes conservative more often than...

the most conservative of Democrats. (i.e. when you look at the voting records, people like Collins and Snowe vote with the GOP more often than, say, Ben Nelson)

That said, a lot of that could simply be the Republican organization, the ability of the Republican whip, etc. I'd be curious how a Collins or a Snowe would vote if she were to switch sides - and, obviously, people like Collins and Snowe would be offered the sun and the moon to get to 60 seats.

[codjh9]

10. Oh fuck 'em on their 'bad luck' - they've screwed up EVERYTHING! I hope we get 60+.

[malaise]

15. Here's why they're going to be wiped out

First Branch: Broken but under repair
(from 2000 - 2006)
The Republicans in the House and Senate
.condoned (if not encouraged)excessive secrecy by the Bush and Cheney administration
.refused to stand behind their own accounting and investigative arm, the GOA...
.provided the VP with a luxurious Capitol Building in the House wing
.effectively became a mere extension of the White House abansoning all responsibility for conducting oversight of the executive branch
.tolerated and supported Bush/Cheney policies that have made the United States despised around the world for its preemptive war in Iraq and its uses of torture in defiance of the nation's treaty obligations...
.fostered an atmosphere of hostility, utterly lacking the collegiality and civility that had made it a great deliberative body.

John Dean - Broken Government: How Republican Rule Destroyed the Legislative, Executive, and Judicial Branches, 2007 p.25/26

[Overseas]

16. I am very excited about the prospect of gaining lots of seats!

I will be watching those races on election night too.

And Jennifer Duffy is wrong. The motto the GOP has been using is more like COUNTRY CLUB FIRST.

They've been snobby elitists who think they dumbed down enough middle Americans to gin up the culture wars and push themselves close enough to steal the next election by the few points they fudged things last time.

Luckily we've got greater leads going in this time so an upset will be much harder for them to engineer this time.

[trof]

18. "Suddenly"? What, did they just wake up?

I think this has been building for a while.

[babylonsister]

20. I think Stevens' 'unfortunate' guilty sentence made some sit up and

take notice. :D

[depakid]

19. Five Thirty Eight has the chances at about 3.2 in 10

We should know early on whether that'll happen or not. Kinda sucks that it rests on the southern states.

WTF is wrong with Mainers that they keep sending Republicans back to Washington, knowing that, when push comes to shove, they vote lock step in barrel with the nutcases?