http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that an investor’s purchases prompted “unusual” price swings that boosted the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president.
Over the past several weeks, the investor has pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into one of Intrade’s predictive markets for the presidential election, the company said.
“The trading that caused the unusual price movements and discrepancies was principally due to a single ‘institutional’ member on Intrade,” said the company’s chief executive, John Delaney, in a statement released Thursday. “We have been in contact with the firm on a number of occasions. I have spoken to those involved personally.”
After the internal investigation into the trading patterns, Intrade found no wrongdoing or violation of its exchange rules, according to the company.
Citing privacy policies, Delaney would not disclose the investor’s identity or whether the investor was affiliated with any political campaign.
According to Delaney the investor was using “increased depth” in the Intrade market “to manage certain risks.” The action boosted the McCain prediction over its previous market value and above the levels of competing predictive-market Web sites.
Intrade Political 'Securities' Percentage US$ Traded
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 83.9% $10.0M
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 16.8% $10.4M
Very strange
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#intrade