30% chance of tornadoes some places in Kansas today

[uppityperson]

Map shows 5 of having a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched area is 10% or greater probability of F2-F5 within 25 miles of a point.



http://blogs.kansas.com/weather/2008/05/22/strong-fast-tornadoes/

Strong, fast tornadoes…

The tornado that hit northern Colorado this afternoon was estimated to be a half-mile wide or more, and large tornadoes are expected in Kansas later tonight.

Part of Colorado got hit today, with a few smaller ones in Wyoming. Now off to Kansas.

A tornado reported in Gove County this afternoon was moving north at more than 50 miles an hour. Now you know why meteorologists say it’s a bad idea to try to outrun a tornado in your car.

The SPC has upgraded most of the western half of Kansas to a moderate risk, and several counties in that zone to a high risk. The high risk zone includes such towns as Kinsley, Greensburg, Larned, Rozel, Ness City, Russell, Stockton, Logan and Jennings.

Given the speed at which the storms are developing - and tornadoes appear to be moving - people who live in the threatened areas should take shelter precautions immediately.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL
KS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF NE CO...WRN
KS...CNTRL KS AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NE CO...NWRN
KS...WCNTRL KS AND NW OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE EXIT REGION
OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 984 MB LOW NEAR DENVER WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NE CO INTO WRN KS. A WARM FRONT IS
LOCATED NEAR GOODLAND AND EXTENDS SEWD INTO CNTRL KS. RUC DATA EAST
OF THE DRYLINE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
HIGH RISK AREA. REGIONAL PROFILERS HAVE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2 SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND LONG-LIVED STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THIS ZONE ESPECIALLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A PLUME OF VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SW KS AND THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK...RUC DATA SUGGESTS STRONG INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE VALUE INTO THE 2000 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE. AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AND A CAPPING INVERSION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE INSTABILITY AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE ENEWD INTO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAKING TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR
ACROSS NWRN OK WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FOCUSED EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. HAILSTONE OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/ERN TX...
A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
FAR EAST TX...LA AND SW MS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS COOLING SFC
TEMPS REDUCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/KIS.. 05/22/2008

[hisownpetard]

1. Quick - grab Toto!

(And I hope the storm fizzles out and doesn't do any real damage).