I don’t care what the Fed says – It’s a DEPRESSION

[FreakinDJ]

And could very well be another Great Depression.

Dumb Ass Rat-publicans have destroyed most of the “New Deal” and are actively plotting on undoing what is left. “By Hook or By Crook” they have dismantled Banking Regulations, Anti-Trust Laws and openly allow and approve of Market Manipulation - Hence the $4 gas soon to be $7 gal gas

1 out 7 homes in America will be FOECLOSED according to the real estate agent planting the “For Sale” sign on the house next to mine

1 or of 7 homes FORECLOSED– that is HUGE

I think those numbers are even greater then what happened in 1929.

[DJ13]

1. Dumb Ass Rat-publicans have.. dismantled Banking Regulations

That was actually Bill Clinton that signed that into law during his second term.

[Ilsa]

3. I thought he vetoed it and they overrode him, but my memory isn't clear. nt

[Ilsa]

2. I'm freaked out by how many garage sales I see.

Maybe it is because of the better weather, but I think aot of people are looking for a spare $100 to get by the next week.

[JDPriestly]

15. People are buying used stuff and cheap stuff if anything.

We were in Ross's discount store the other day. I've never seen such short check-out lines there.

[Radio_Lady]

55. The Garage Sale signs were only surpassed by the OPEN (Real Estate signs).

This beautiful Sunday it seems as if there were so many of these on every block.

We had an OPEN HOUSE also. Two people came. They were "just looking", according to our realtor.

Cordially,

RL

[LakeSamish706]

4. Yeah, but don't wake up the Dumb "Fucking" American people, Ok? Cause shit...

they will never notice that the economy is falling apart unless someone tells them.... What the hell is wrong with these people anyway? They will just sit there until the Repo. guys bang at the door before getting off of the couch... Fuck, I just don't get it at all...

[dkf]

5. 1 in 7 sounds high to me.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. No they're not, not yet

but for the record, in 1929 they also denied it until it wasn't doable

[Double T]

7. The entire financial and economic systems are collapsing with the FED, WH and Congress.........

desperately trying to prop it up, specially in this election year. As the dollar continues downward and energy costs keep skyrocketing, inflation will continue upward out of control. wall street and corporate america have sold out our nation and it will take many decades to recover, if it is even possible at all. I believe the foreclosure rate will go higher than 1 in 7. With HUGE increases in world populations over the next 50 years, I believe the world is facing insurmountable odds.

[mahina]

31. Regarding the world's population, I really encourage you to watch this vid from the TED talks.

Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen


"Hans Rosling debunks myths about the so-called "developing world" using extraordinary animation software developed by his Gapminder Foundation. The Trendalyzer software (recently acquired by Google) turns complex global trends into lively animations, making decades of data pop. Asian countries, as colorful bubbles, float across the grid -- toward better national health and wealth. Animated bell curves representing national income distribution squish and flatten. In Rosling's hands, global trends -- life expectancy, child mortality, poverty rates -- become clear, intuitive and even playful."
I'd be interested to hear what you think after watching it.

From my perspective, I see the terrible downside, but am also aware that measuring wealth in terms of dollars and growth only misses much that is essential. I take heart daily that we are witnessing the old structures fade, opening a space for sustainable economies. Not without pain, clearly.
I really hope we can shake off the crappy ethanol faux solution so the world can get back in balance with food prices and we can get to work on things.

But that's just my take.

[mahina]

8. Oh fer Pete's sake.

You're mistaken.

Not about the dumb republicans or undoing the new deal etc, but this is not a depression.

Everybody was bitching about the high price of houses, now we're bitching about them coming down. Tragic fallout to families who bit the bait, but good news for new home buyers.

I'm amazed at the resilience of the American economy. And I am aware that there is a very significant risk from the mountains of debt incurred by our Dear Leader. But that all said, this is not a depression.

[Systematic Chaos]

9. You obviously don't hang around the Stock Market Watch threads, do you?

:eyes:

[mahina]

10. A little bit. But I'm too busy running my business

to spend much time on DU.

[JDPriestly]

16. Except that the new home buyers can't get loans.

This is not good for anyone. The house behind us sold and then fell through escrow something like three times. It's in escrow again. This time the seller was the bank. Hopefully it is really sold.

[RB TexLa]

19. Can't get loans? I've been trying to get my banks to stop calling me offering loans

most are offering loans for investment property, good rates but I'm not wanting to be a landlord for the next few years. Only way I'd do that again is to have enough of them to be able to hire someone at least part time to do the maintenance.

[alittlelark]

24. I get those calls all the time too (thanks 'do not call' list)

The reason we get them is our credit is platinum and we are doing very well. Those who are not doing well do not get those calls from the 'good' banks.

Do you really not understand how this works?

[RB TexLa]

26. Yes I understand people get calls and offers based on their credit and other scores

Just because financing fell through on the house next to the poster doesn't mean people of most all credit aren't able to get loans, some people who couldn't get the loan for that house apparently didn't, but doesn't mean the bank isn't going to loan them money for another house. They are getting back more in line with their underwriting guidelines.

Of course, I know my neighbor's phone might ring with worse or better offers than I am getting.

[alittlelark]

27. ......sigh.....

[alittlelark]

23. The happy tweety birds tweeting about you post died a few months ago.

They have been stinking for 2+months. How many dead animals do you have in your 'abode'?

What is happening, and what is coming, is clear to those who eradicate the 'carcasses of (propagandized) hopefulness' and can look at reality.

[mahina]

32. What the hell?

Nonsense.

[roamer65]

11. It's an inflationary recession so far...

but I expect it to become a hyperinflationary depression by 2010.

[mahina]

12. Argentina!

Why 2010?

[roamer65]

51. John Williams at shadowstats.com

http://www.shadowstats.com

Very interesting facts and figures.

[dantyrant]

41. You're in good company then...

John Williams of ShadowStats has said the same.

[roamer65]

50. I looked at his numbers and I concurred with his 2010 date.

The banks are hoarding the Fed's liquidity right now, but when it starts to roll out into the economy, that's is when inflation will go through the roof. Much like the easy money policy of Nixon in the early 1970's caused problems years down the road.

[dantyrant]

52. Agreed...

There's so many other wildcards though...

If the gulf countried depeg, the dollar will fall through the floor and imports will blow up our trade and budget deficits... the weaker the dollar becomes, the more countries will abandon it, and those dollars will circulate back into the US economy. We won't be able to recycle petrodollars to the same extent...

Also, the Asian countries are building a monetary firewall around their economies with a new monetary loose union wherein different countries can swap reserves, to prevent currency speculation à la 90s Asian economic crisis. This might mean that, for all practical purposes, the BoJ might no longer be so accomodating of the Fed's wishes.

It wasn't just Nixon, of course. LBJ's Guns and Butter policies have been adopted by pretty much every subsequent president...

Your target date certainly seems plausible, but it seems like even the Fed is surprised by how quickly the financial economy is unravelling. We're already seeing hyperinflation(depending on your def'n) in commodities and the FX markets are nearly as volatile as the equity markets! We could have a currency crisis this year. Who can say?

And where are our Dems? Why aren't they saying or doing anything about this travesty that is unfolding in real time?

It really bothers me that our candidates don't talk about such issues. Better not to talk about it at all than to let on how screwed we are. As shameful as this is, it's not even the worst of it. I don't think many of our Dems actually understand how the global monetary system actually works. For example, how can the US ween itself off foreign oil, when that's what our currency is backed by? This is a very serious practical problem that comes out of Kissinger's dealings in the 70s... The dollar-oil link served the US well for some 30 years, but it's about to come back and bite us.

[mahina]

53. So holding onto dollars would be a mistake?

It sounds like investing in post-bubble real estate would be a sound move?

[dantyrant]

54. holding dollars would be a bad move.

If you want to hold currencies, look at the Asian currencies. They should appreciate significantly against the dollar. Brazil's Rial too -- their rates are at > 11% IIRC, and their govt bonds have just been upgraded to AAA. I wouldn't hold US treasuries either btw. Gold and silver should do very well though (you can buy ETFs: GLD, IAU for gold; SLV for silver).

The real estate market will overshoot on the downside, so if you get in at the bottom that would certainly be a good move. I'm renting the next few years at least -- we haven't hit the bottom yet. No way.

[Dreamer Tatum]

13. Geez, it's not even close to as bad as 1982 was. Simmer down.

Criminy.

[TalkingDog]

28. bwahahahaha!!! 1982? That's all you got?

1982 was a cakewalk.

The mid to late-70's I'll grant - it's not that bad, yet. People in the US aren't "reduced" to eating horse meat. Or waiting in line for.... gas, government surplus cheese, butter and generic cans of BEANS or CORN.



Oh, and along with the gas lines, there were the gas line riots. That was fun.

From a 70's Time Magazine Article: (Please note how long the paragraphs are...like it's not dumbed down for the InterTubes or anything)

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,920445,00.html?promoid=googlep

Most drivers, of course, remained as quietly idle as their engines while they waited as long as four or five hours, at least in the Northeast, to fill their tanks. They read, listened to radios or cassettes, sometimes watched a small TV set installed in their cars. Some chatted with other motorists or bought food and drink from enterprising kids working the lines. But growing anger and frustration all too often erupted in name calling, fistfights, occasional stabbings and shootings. While a gas-station owner in Freemansburg, Pa., rushed to help his bleeding wife, who had been accidentally struck by a car waiting in line, other motorists filled up their tanks and drove off without paying. In Levittown, Pa., in an outbreak originally caused by truckers demonstrating against high diesel fuel prices, some 2,000 motorists and thrill-seekers clashed with the police in three days of rioting. Police arrested nearly 200. Local officials declared a state of emergency and enforced a curfew that prohibited more than five people's getting together on the streets after 9 p.m. Pennsylvania Governor Richard Thornburgh helped restore order by bringing another 500,000 gal. of gas into the area and imposing a statewide odd-even purchase system. Said Bristol Town ship Police Chief Richard Templeton: "We're sitting on a powder keg."

/endsnip

http://www.energybulletin.net/18496.html
And a couple of stories on why the world food shortage has been ongoing. It's just now catching up with us.

I will admit that gubmit cheez is AWESOME! It's a fairly good cheddar, but with the unfortunate and unnecessary addition of Annatto.

edited to add Repo Man image....

[Dreamer Tatum]

37. Oh, this is an ANECDOTAL and EMOTIONAL discussion...my mistake.

I thought 10% unemployment then vs 4.9% unemployment now would somehow be relevant.

Oh, wait, I forgot...the government always lies about statistics, which calls all facts into question.

Psst...the same things people are saying now? That these are the end times, and that it's "MUCH WORSE"
than the government is admitting? They were saying that in 1992, 1982, 1979, and so on. We just didn't
have the hysteria propapgation device known as the internet back then.

[Occulus]

40. Wait... you think unemployment is really that low right now?

Really?

[Dreamer Tatum]

42. I'm sure it's higher in some places, lower in others.

I would bet my eyeteeth that unemployment is nowhere near as high as it was in the last severe recession.

[TalkingDog]

45. Here are some facts for you. Charts and everything.

Jigger your own stats, let us know what you come up with:
http://www.economagic.com/

[A HERETIC I AM]

46. Ummmm....forgetting everything else for a second, the graph above is indicative of what, exactly?

The rise in Online job seeking ads, the rise in the likes of the Monster.com's of the world and the decline in Newspaper classifieds?

Because that's all that graph shows. A decline in Help Wanted Advertising in Newspapers.

It does not mean no one is advertising to solicit potential employees or the rate of such advertising has significantly changed.

It means Newspapers are getting less of that market.

[Dreamer Tatum]

47. Good heavens, where to start?

What the heck is on the y axis?

Is this sample controlled in ANY meaningful way?

In what sense does this measure actual employment?

If "30" is bad relative to "90," is that consistent or inconsistent with high unemployment?

The precipitious drop in newspaper listings is curiously consistent with the explosion of internet job postings. Any comment?

And so on.

[TalkingDog]

44. You offer no "facts", just: It's not as bad as 1982.

The lack of structure in your initial "assertion" does not lead one to understand it as a discussion that engages logic, fact or even philosophical debate.

And somehow I'm to blame for responding in the same freewheeling fashion with which you initiated the "discussion"?

As for the government lying about statistics, you must have mistaken me for someone WGAF. I made no such claim.

Governmental organization have "changed" accounting measures a number of times over the years. Whether one considers that lying to the public, especially when the change is not discussed as a matter of public policy, is open to debate. Have at.


http://www.shadowstats.com/


I only disagreed with your statement that 1982 was a particularly bad year. Several years preceding that were rather newsworthy. Why you would choose'82 was the "fact" called into question. In fact, if you care to read...perhaps slowly for comprehensions sake, I think you will find that I agree with you. It's nowhere near as bad as it has been in decades past.

If you find that to be overly emotional and snips from reputable news sources anecdotal then perhaps we have different definitions of those words. How about you define your terms, then perhaps we can have a "proper" discussion.

[Dreamer Tatum]

48. So "BWAHAHAHA" is part of reasoned discourse. I see. Touche.

Someone called the current state of the economy a "Depression." By no measure, especially the technical, according-to-Hoyle
one, are we in a "Depression."

The most recent serious recession in the US occurred around 1981-1982. I was comparing the employment situation now to then.
Employment is much higher now than it was then.

[opihimoimoi]

14. Ye will know them by their FRUITS...or lack of......GOP = bitter fruit...lemons

[RC]

17. Depression? Why? Because the unemployment rate is

really much higher than the reported 4.5%. The inflation rate is actually 12+%. The housing market went bust - see above. Naa, we're fine. This is just a little adjustment. :sarcasm:

Just wait till the fertilizer really gets into the air handlers in 2010. Then we will be hurting and the repugs will blame the democratic congress and probably Obama also.

[mahina]

30. Why 2010?

[RC]

35. That is when the Sunset clause on a whole gaggle of bu$h laws kicks in.

Don't tell me the Memory Hole has swallowed this little tidbit?

[mahina]

39. Specifically which ones?

[RC]

43. SUNRISE-SUNSET: Is The Death Tax Really Dead?

http://www.mcgb.com/CM/Articles/Articles83.asp

Summary of New Law. The law would abolish the federal estate tax in 2010. However, because of the "sunset provision," the tax repeal could be short-lived. The repeal is revoked on December 31, 2010, and tax rates return to their 2001 levels. In the interim, the estate tax exemption, which is now $675,000, will gradually increase to $3.5 million in 2009. The top estate tax rate, which is now 55 percent, will drop to 50 percent next year, and then gradually decline to 45 percent. The exemption amount for gifts increases to $1 million, but the gift tax will not be repealed and the top gift tax rate will be lowered to the top individual income tax rate. A chart summarizing these changes is included in this article.



http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2001_July_9/ai_76405240

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 9, 2001

In a swift move to combat long-term financial planning uncertainty generated by recent federal estate tax legislation, Transamerica Occidental Life Insurance Co. is adding an option to its survivorship life insurance policies issued June 7, 2001, or later, which will allow policyowners to fully surrender their inforce contracts during the calendar year 2010 with no surrender penalties if the repeal of federal estate taxes extends beyond Dec. 31, 2010.

Transamerica Occidental Life developed its so-called "Sunset Option" in response to the "Sunset Provision" of The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001. The Act reduces estate taxes gradually over the next nine years until Jan. 1, 2010, when they disappear entirely. However, the Act's Sunset Provision restores estate taxes beginning Jan. 1, 2011, on the same basis that existed before the new legislation went into effect on June 7, 2001.

"The Sunset Provision creates so much uncertainty for clients moving forward," said Joel Seigle, Transamerica Insurance & Investment Group's senior vice president for Life Insurance and Annuity Products, "that we concluded we needed to add a special option to our survivorship products to support sound tax and estate planning efforts.

[1]

18. yep...

*looks around*

looks like a depression to me.

buddy, can you spare a dime?

[Warpy]

20. When retail closures are so numerous

that when you find yourself with a little extra money and have no place to spend it, THAT is a Depression.

[Triana]

21. Yep. Destroying the New Deal has been their Manta for YEARS. That's what they set out to do..

....when King George was coronated. They will be doing their damnedest to finish the job before George goes back to his "ranch".

[dantyrant]

56. The so-called Globalization of Poverty.

It's not just the new deal they're after. It's pretty much every liberal social democracy in the world that they would like to undermine. This is what their demented 'market fundamentalism' is all about: creating a global poor that capital can exploit without regulation.

[Kablooie]

22. A depression is when rich guys jump out of windows ...

The rich guys today are happier and richer than ever, therefore it is not a DE-pression.

I'd call it more of an O-pression.

[Lint Head]

25. Let's call it what it is. FASCISM

:dem:

[crimsonblue]

29. foreclosures aren't the mark to go by.

Unemployment is still low, and that is the key barometer, along with consumer spending.

[RC]

36. Don't believe the numbers.

Only those drawing unemployment are counted. Otherwise if you are not working, you don't exist. If you are using your collage degree to flip burgers and afterwards go elsewhere to sweep floors, you are counted twice as being employed. While this administration talks a lot about jobs, creating jobs, etc., they are careful to never mention the quality nor the pay level of said jobs. A job is a job, whether it is possible to survive on it or not is never mentioned.

[cornermouse]

33. Agree.

But don't expect the media to interrupt their coverage of trivia to tell us that.

[Perry Logan]

34. If it happened under a Democratic President, it would definitely be a depression.

[BigDaddy44]

38. You blew it

You should have asked this all knowing, all seeing real estate agent for some stock tips.

My barber told me he's invented a cure for baldness. I'm giving him all my money so he can market it.

[Hangingon]

49. Got me to thinking.

I don't think it is a recession and I don't want one. I agree times are tough. Sometime after

When I entered the work force years ago, I met many people who were survivers of The depression and vets of WW2. A few were significant mentors - people I remember and admire. In my memory, most of the people who went thru this experience came thru it as much better people. They were work oriented and apprceiated what the achieved. A few - very few - were not better. They were bitter people who generally didn't do well in life. I wonder how we would handle a real depression.

[femrap]

57. I read recently that home values declined

30% in the '30's....economists are predicting a 50% decline for today.

Yep...we're way overdo for a Depression. Fucking greedy assholes.