National Association of Realtors Head: Real Estate Crash is due to little more than Mass Hysteria

[El Pinko]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080214/BUSINESS/802140325/1001

Speaker: Housing market buoyant

Media exaggerate downturn, Realtor group's economist says


(February 14, 2008) — The U.S. economy can grow at a healthy pace if consumers don't buy into the national media story that the weak housing market will cause a recession, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday in Rochester.

"Paraphrasing Franklin Delano Roosevelt, what I fear is fear itself," Lawrence Yun said at a Greater Rochester Association of Realtors luncheon at the Hyatt Regency.

....

"It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where this excessive pessimism leads to an additional downfall of the housing market," he said.

Those pessimistic thoughts are being driven by national media outlets that tend to cherry pick data and experts to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession, he said. "If the news organizations have an agenda, they will call somebody and they'll get the information they want."



:rofl: :cry:


If you believe this guy, I've got an orange bridge in San Francisco I'm looking to unload cheap...

[Donnachaidh]

1. Translation -- realtorspeak to human

"Where's the Fan? I don't want to be standing near it when it hits the Fan. We don't DO mortgages - we just *show* houses.*

Yeah yeah -- another cacaphony chorus of BLAME the CONSUMER!!!!

Wonder when the mortgage brokers will crawl out from under THEIR rocks and join in? :nopity:

[still_one]

2. Oh I see, it has nothing to do with people not able to afford their mortgage /nt

[Donnachaidh]

3. when consumers are told they can get something BETTER if they do

a little tweaking of their paperwork, or are talked into a different sort of loan that will enable them to get a bigger, better house? I'm sure the consumers can hold a bit of the blame, but realtors and the mortgage brokers don't get PAID until the sale is FINALIZED. So who exactly stood to gain by seeing how much house they could get for Joe Blow?

And of course the banks that approved the loans with the thought of packaging them up and selling the *shaky* loans overseas are totally blameless, right?

But all the parties involved are covering each other's rear ends quite nicely. And pointing fingers at the Consumer who is going to wind up being the biggest loser of the deal, when he loses his home.

[Rockholm]

11. Real Estate brokers have nothing to do with the mortgages.

They can certainly refer a mortgage broker, but by and large, the financial industry (the BIG FISH) are the one's to blame. The hedge funds and other big banks bought bundles of mortgages looking to turn a tidy profit. There were plenty of scam artists on the mortgage side.
The end however is the consumer. The people being foreclosed on are the same people who go to payday lenders and Rent-a-Centers. There's one born every day. If you can't afford to buy it, THEN DON'T.

[El Pinko]

13. THat's a good rule of thumb, but people like you describe *WILL* overextend themselves...

...when given the chance - that is why lenders are supposed to do due diligence and have lending standards. Those went out the window through much of the 90s. You can blame the borrowers all you want, but the final responsibility must rest with the lenders to assess the risk of the borrowers with much more care.

And now it will be the economy at large and financially sound homeowners who will pay the price in lost jobs and destroyed equity.

At least some people will see their property taxes go down...

[Baby Snooks]

15. Oh yes they do

I don't know about other states but in Texas both brokers and agents of the brokers are allowed to hold mortgage licenses and quite a few agents were wearing two hats and not only selling a house but getting a "loan origination fee" off the mortgage. I suspect this was going on all around the country. The state of Texas at least required licensure for the "referral fee" as it used to be called but whatever you call it, it still created conflict of interest. There were plenty of scam artists on the real estate side as well. Whether someone is buying a $100,000 condo or a $1 million home, most depend on the advice of a Realtor. To imply as you are that none of these people, obviously "those people" to you with regard to your smarmy comment about payday lenders and Rent-a-Centers, were referred to the con artists by a Realtor is a little ludicrous. Most if not all Realtors do refer. And many in fact have their own "in-house" lender. And in Texas, many hold the mortgage license of the agents and sometimes even the broker. Blame the customer? Blame the Realtor.

National Association of Realtors is worried and should be. More and more people are "selling it and buying it themselves" after years of misrepresentation and in some cases outright fraud on the part of Realtors. And this no doubt will not help the situation.

National Association of Realtors would do better to police its members rather than just blanketly promote them.

[InkAddict]

17. Exactly...

What would you call a mortgage broker family member who would force a long-term unemployed, depressed person to place a lien on his/her home as the condition to pay for the care of another immediate relative whom the lender claimed to adore but seldom visited though only an hour away, and who would then call the depressed, unemployed relative repeatedly to threaten foreclosure if that person could not re-fi. Please note: the ill person did not know about the loan and most likely would not have understood or cared about the ramifications of such. The homeowner never received the funds; the corporate care-provider (best care solution for all) received the funds directly from the lender.

First question: Who would do that? A desperate, clinically depressed, individual caretaker in need of care themselves.

And,yes, perhaps, one could have sought out a re-fi, one of those "no disclosure" loans perhaps? Bet that broker knew just the institutions to help out like that in time of need.

ONE WORD: PREDATORY.

[Rockholm]

22. Massachusetts is not Texas.

Not only are there "those people" but there are those who used their homes as ATM's, taking money out of their homes for vacations, cars, tuitions. They spent the equity in their homes. They spent the appreciation that may have been there or was there.
The banks and mortgage companies that lent the money were just as greedy as the person who refinanced to buy a car.
Yes, there are some scummy brokers out there. A REALTOR is bound by a code of ethics.

[InkAddict]

16. Please do not generalize

Many American skilled and educated workers who managed their "personal responsibilities" just fine prior to deregulation lost their jobs after global corporatists assessed their new "value." These workers and managers did not live in McMansions nor drive Beemers, etc...Nevertheless, their jobs were RIFd, their credit scores decimated as they struggled to survive escalating costs of educating their children and finding healthcare solutions that worked(?)for the wellness of their loved ones on the paydays and no-benefits McJobs offered. People are not born with crystal balls to pre-determine their futures, but they do make decisions based, IN PART, on an expectation that their skills and experience were VALUED by the employers that hired them, not valued for the amount they'd bring as as "write-offs" on their employers' balance sheets to increase the profits of corporate America.

Lay the blame exactly where it should be and where it always falls: The perpetual, insatiable greed and selfishness of the elite and the criminal wannabees.

[Blue State Bandit]

4. A mass of People in a Mass of Debt = Mass Hysteria.

Not the other way around. At least not this time.

This is called "coloring the truth to save your ass".

They're just laying out the smoke screen so they can

limit their exposure:

sell what properties they may be stuck with.

[Ichingcarpenter]

5. Most be world wide hysteria

cause it happening all over the western world
that were tied up to this banking scam

Europe is suffering too, but not as fast as we, and I know this personally.

[Richard Steele]

6. K&R, El Pinko. And, BTW, I've been meaning to tell you:

I LOVE your sig-pic!

Trailer Park Boys was just about the best damn thing that
I have EVER seen on TV. There was nothing like it, before or since.

The aggregate effect was as "off the wall" as any Monty Python episode,
but there wasn't a single character there that wasn't EXACTLY
like someone I've known and lived next to in real life.

It was a brilliant show that deserves more appreciation than it
ever got.

[Arctic Dave]

7. Hey guys

Like I posted in other threads. Let's not go over the top. Yes, things are not ideal but lets not make it worse then it already is. What I mean is. If it becomes common perception that the world has gone to hell, it actually benefits Bush and his quest to cut social programs, etc. If you read Shock Doctrine this will make sense.
They will scare you by events" either real or perceived" to achieve the neocon goals.

[El Pinko]

12. What are you talking about?

There is nothing *WE* can do about this. What is happening is what is happening. There is no fixing it because the economy is in a liquidity trap. I don't think people are freaking out any more than is merited. The situation is serious and will probably eventually result in several million jobs lost. That sucks, and it is largely due to the present administration's policies.

But I've lived through some bad recessions and intend to live through this one.

It can't hurt people to be well-informed about what's going on.

Things are not just "not ideal". They were far from ideal even at the height of the "boom" with jobs being offshored and wages for most people stagnant forever, not to mention housing priced out of sight for most families in the bubble areas.

The economic reality for a lot of people is EXTREMELY BAD right now and getting worse, so it's really hard for me to understand why you keep pooh-poohing it.

Or do you agree with Yun's absurdly sunny assessment of our economy?

[Arctic Dave]

23. Things are not good

Yes, that is given. I'm in no way saying otherwise. I guess I'm not getting my point across very well. Thats my bad.
As you have said, "it can't hurt people to be well-informed about what's going on."
This is also what I'm trying to say. But it seems what can be a time to inform people, we are turning into a celebration of our demise just so we can say Bush's policies are destructive. I believe it would benefit everyone if we move to the next phase and start trying undue the obvious fiasco this idiot has left for us. I hope this cleared up my point. :-)

[flashl]

14. This is real ...

Gov. Spitzer to give Congress warning about impact of bond crisis

Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime

FBI's subprime crackdown may expand to more firms

Housing Depression

Mortgage Fraud

We are witnessing industrial level fraud that is widespread and not the average Jane and John Doe level fraud.

[Virginia Dare]

19. You're right, I think I'll go shopping....n/t

[mysteryman2]

8. evidence based research

Is this based off evidence based research.

[soothsayer]

9. It was hysteria that pushed home prices up so ridiculously high

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

10. It was loose underwriting standards

How did it happen that all of a sudden everyone in America could afford a $250,000 house, or at least the lenders said you could, even though incomes did not rise during the time of rapid real estate appreciation?

They did not CARE that the loans would fail because they would pass the bad loans off in those Collateralized Debt Obligations you keep hearing about. That have infected the entire worldwide banking system.

As long as they could pass the loans off they didn't care. Now, no one will buy ANY loans without major scrutiny. This has caused a giant clog in the money line. The faucet has been turned OFF. If inventory continues to rise, as it inevitable will as the economy softens more and more and more people lose their jobs and have to downsize, then prices will continue to go down.

It's a perfect real estate storm.

We will have to get back to the place where the median income can afford the median home. That is a LONG way off in some areas.

[InkAddict]

21. And all Americans will pay for

the 40-65 yr olds who were RIF'd of their jobs/careers, investments, and healthcare in the process. Will America look away. U-Bet! Even stoking the ovens will cost more.

[Virginia Dare]

20. It was greed and market manipulation, pure and simple....n/t

[Virginia Dare]

18. Funny, I didn't hear a peep out of them when it was mass hysteria to buy..

not that's it's a mass hysteria to sell, well, that's a different story....:eyes:

But yes, people get pretty pessimistic when they see houses being foreclosed on in every block...:think:

[Jackpine Radical]

24. My Fellow Dinosaurs--

Please do not let yourselves get swept up into the general hysteria over that itty-bitty meteor strike and a paltry bit of dust in the air. Relax and enjoy the interesting new colors in the sunset, secure in the knowledge that the Jurassic will go on forever.