How To Lie With Statistics - The Mitt Romney Job Version« links for 2008-01-12 | Main | links for 2008-01-14 »
http://pardonmyfrench.typepad.com/pardonmyfrench/2008/01/how-to-lie-with.htmlI can't resist this post. I really was trying to make a non-political post today, but after having a delicious lunch in Somers, NY which included discussing politics I can't help myself. However, before the Romney bloggers come and slam me, I wrote two posts two years back under the title How To Lie with Statistics and Lie A Little More with Statistics. The basic premises behind these posts were that anyone can manipulate numbers to make them look good or bad. What makes it even funnier is that my first boss at AT&T was named Pete Huff and the author of the book How To Lie With Statistics was Huff (no relation). Anyway, back to politics.
At the recent Republican Debate in SC, Mitt Romney said "As to my record in the state of Massachusetts, I'm very proud of the fact that after many, many months of declining job growth, I took over the state and helped turn that around. And in my years as governor, we kept adding jobs every single month after we saw that turnaround." Wow, that's sounds so impressive, but it is also a little fishy.
snip--->
Adding insult is this paragraph found on Mitt Romney's bio page on his website: "At the beginning of Governor Romney's term, Massachusetts was losing thousands of jobs every month. By the time he left office, the unemployment rate was lower, hundreds of companies had expanded or moved to Massachusetts and the state had added approximately 60,000 jobs from the low point of the recession."
Now Factcheck.org wrote "that's not true" and you can hit this link for their analysis of Romney's untruths. However, I wasn't satisfied with the link and I was hoping to find something else that Mitt really meant by his statement. I mean, Mitt Romney really wouldn't just offer up a total lie on national TV would he? So, I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and found this detailed report Romney_jobs_2on Mitt Romney's time as Governor of Massachusetts (January 2003 - January 4 2007).
Let's look at his "job growth claims" using this chart that I copied from the Bureau and added in dates of Romney's role as Governor and a color code of red meaning job loss and green meaning job growth.
* Claim #1 - And in my years as governor, we kept adding jobs every single month after we saw that turnaround: Wrong, if you don't catch his caveat. For almost his first full year as Governor they lost jobs every month until it flattened out in 2005.
* Claim #2 - the state had added approximately 60,000 jobs from the low point of the recession. True but very misleading. They did add the 60K jobs but the low point came under Governor Romney's watch in 2004!! Also, they still haven't reached their recent high of employment found in January 2001.
The chart says it all which is "nothing is ever what it seems" and when someone makes an absolute boast, you should definitely check those numbers. Claim #1 is really wrong if you don't catch his caveat which is "after we saw that turnaround". Unfortunately, the bottom came during Governor Romney's watch and the turn around didn't really occur until mid-point through his tenure (even though I gave him a green in 2004, it really was flat). So for the first two years it was negative and flat and then the last two years Mass. had job growth. However, that job growth still hasn't hit their peak employment that was seen in January 2001.
This analysis proves once again that you can spin numbers anyway you want. More....