Which of the Top Three Candidates Has the Best Chance of Losing One or Both Houses in '10?

[CorpGovActivist]

I'm not keen on a repeat of '92, '94.

- Dave

[Mythsaje]

1. Not going to happen.

It was just a nightmare. Go back to sleep.

[CorpGovActivist]

2. I'm Wide Awake...

... to the history of what happened.

; )

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

4. DID YOU HEAR THIS??? .....

Dave, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS???

"KO just reported BO internal poll had him winning by 14%, HRC internal poll had BO by 11%...
Folks this is one of the most surprising errors by BOTH CANDIDATES in Primary History.

Candidates poll, read polls, conduct internal polls, read other polls, and rinse and repeat ... EVERY DAY UNTIL THE ELECTION.

Here BOTH CANDIDATES are saying they were categorically WRONG???

The attempted explanations for this disparity are falling apart..."

[CorpGovActivist]

6. I'm Not Willing to Pull out the Reynolds Wrap...

... and fashion myself a hat yet.

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

8. Regardless of the outcome, Have you ever heard of this happening before???

Small underfunded campaigns for local and state offices can get some pretty flawed polliing results due to the quality of the polling commissioned.

This is just stunning... these are not polling errors ever likely to be repeated.

I don't know who won, or who did not win, but I know that I have never heard of a situation in which BOTH CANDIDATES receiving internal polling data that was wrong in exactly the same manner.

[CorpGovActivist]

9. Honestly, It Could Well Be a Double-Barreled...

... "Wilder Effect" at play.

Keeping my Reynolds Wrap where it belongs until further evidence emerges: in the kitchen.

What do you think Wilder's internal polling showed?

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

12. Wikipedia had Wilder polling at 9%, and he won by 0.5%... however,

Internal polling is never prepared for public release, unless the results are so favorable the candidate decides to release it --and only after it has been properly rewritten and comments have been redacted.

If we could get a look at the report prepared from internal polling data that Obama's campaign received, and compare it with the report prepared from internal polling data that Hillary's campaign received, I would be willing to bet that they were very similar in their findings and predictions.

You can be sure that the possibility of a 'Wilder Effect' was probably referenced in both reports.

Even so, you have to ask how so many pollsters, strategists and campaign officials could be wrong about the outcome here -- given their consistency of data and predictions which matched up with the Republican race and candidates, and the other Democratic candidates.

[CorpGovActivist]

13. I Don't Discount the Possibility of Tampering to Zero...

... but this is the sort of thing where the evidence has to be more than circumstantial.

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

14. I also am not accusing anyone of 'tampering' but 'something' happened ...

.... which cannot be easily explained.

It is similar to what happens when a commercial airliner crashes. We may not know what caused the crash initially, but we do know when one falls from the sky 'something' happened.

[CorpGovActivist]

15. This Is One for the History Books...

... but remember: NH is sui generis.

Bottom line: the dynamics aren't ones that the Edwards campaign or the Obama campaign have to overly sweat.

Don't fight the last battle.

; )

- Dave

[jlake]

3. Obama. If he were to be elected. Disappointment over the "hope" and "change" would lead to

serious losses in the midterm elections.

[CorpGovActivist]

7. Interesting Take n/t

[Raine]

5. Hillary...

she'll bring out all the frothing wingnut fundie Clinton haters to vote down all the Democrats.

[billbuckhead]

10. But knuckledraggers will pass the opportunity to vote against"Barack Hussein Obama"?

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhEPNOusKv4>
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYmFAwhmqaU>

[CorpGovActivist]

19. If He Were President...

... in 2010, I think that'd be a hard meme to sell, given that he'd have had the bully pulpit for 2 years.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

11. I Tend to Agree with Your Choice...

... and part of your reasoning.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

16. Just to Be Clear...

... since things were topsy-turvy here last night: I'm asking these questions honestly. I really do understand that most voters don't factor this sort of stuff in (though, anyone with a basic understanding of Civics should, in my view).

The point is: Karl Rove is salivating at the prospects that one of these three might help produce a hobbling mid-term in '10.

- Dave

[Tatiana]

17. Clinton

This shouldn't come as a surprise. She'd energize their rabid base even more than the other one did.

[CorpGovActivist]

18. I Tend to Agree...

... but I don't think it's just "their" base; I think some crossover Dems would be on DEFCON 1 for the first two years of her Presidency, and prone to jump.

- Dave