Rassmussen Reports Posts Latest Iowa Numbers

[CorpGovActivist]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus">Report, with the new Rasmussen Markets predictive tool explained.

- Dave

[MethuenProgressive]

1. "Obama at 55.0 %, Clinton at 32.9 %, and Edwards at 21.0 %."

"Those who want polls to tell them who will in Iowa will be sorely disappointed. Rasmussen Reports believes that polling to date has presented a good overview of the race in Iowa but that caution should be used in reading the latest polling from Iowa. That’s primarily because it is impossible to determine who will actually show up and participate in the caucus.
Data from Rasmussen Markets shows that Barack Obama is somewhat favored to win in Iowa but Hillary Clinton is still seen as very competitive. Market data from yesterday showed a sharp decline in expectations for an Edwards victory.
For trading on the day of January 1, the closing prices showed Obama with a 59.0% chance of winning, up from 46.1% the day before. Pricing implies a 41.0% chance, little changed from a 37.9% change the day before. Edwards prospects declined to 18.0% following yesterday’s trading, down from 31.4%.
Current data shows Obama at 54.9 %, Clinton at 32.9 %, and Edwards at 19.1 %. These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. If you would like to participate in the Rasmussen Markets, it costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market."

That there is some odd stuff...

[CorpGovActivist]

2. The Markets Feature...

... is a very recent addition. I'm not sure how many participants there are in the prediction market yet. As with a real exchange, fewer participants can mean wild swings.

- Dave

[Horse with no Name]

3. Rasmussen is just getting folks ready NOT to believe any kind of polls--

including exit polls--this election cycle.
What? You are going to believe your lying eyes? Kind of like last time.

[CorpGovActivist]

4. I Found Them Credible in 06...

... with respect to the http://www.rasmussenreports.com/older_content/home/most_recent_articles/most_recent_articles_october_2006">Virginia Senate race.

- Dave

[RiverStone]

5. Yea -- and I just posted a poll giving Edwards a 7% lead.

Gawd, in just 36 hours we will see who the real idiot pundits are (maybe even you or me)? :hi:

[MethuenProgressive]

6. (River, this isn't from a regular 'poll')

Take a look at the OP's link.

[CorpGovActivist]

8. Precisely...

... they show both their formal polling, and the results of the very new Markets feature.

Methuen - MA?

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

7. Rasmussen Polls vs. (New) Rasmussen Markets

Their polling seems to indicate "too close to call," but they do some interesting secondary and tertiary dives into factors that could favor Edwards.

The new Rasmussen Markets are pretty freewheeling and lopsided at this point. As they get more participants, that should settle.

- Dave