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With the rise of easy and profitable infrastructure terrorism, the developed world is destined to see a dramatic decline in providable services and as a result, governmental legitimacy. The nations of the global north are faced with a choice to spend billions to (unsuccessfully) defend themselves or capitulate to an enemy motivated by the holy desire to see them destroyed. Either choice has the same the likely result; a splintering of society and a rise of extremist views. Couple that with an Eastern hemisphere demographic crisis that will see Muslims dominate Europe and Russia and systems there that are unable to integrate them into society. When this reaches its peak, society will simply shift to accommodate them.
The US will last longer, as it has a smaller Muslim population and is far better at preserving societal cohesion during times of heavy immigration, but no man (or state) is an island, and this can only last so long in a world of faith. We are already a religious people, and a large segment of the population is already turning towards more radical versions of their beliefs. As the power shuts down and price of fuel skyrockets, we should only expect this trend to hasten. Don't believe me? Just watch the news. Todays Iraq is playing out as a model of our bleak future.
Just as the British once were, now it is our turn to play the ponderous ineffectual giant incapable of dealing with a growing threat that doesn't play by our cherished rules.
A cheap and easily prepared terrorist attack or act of sabotage can cost the world economy hundreds of millions of dollars. Couple hundreds of these together, and tens or hundreds of billions of dollars are lost. We feel safe because we have successfully stopped several 9/11 style attacks. It is the height of false confidence. The US will likely continue to thwart big spectacular attacks against our homeland, but these attacks not the greatest concern we face. Our way of life depends on the stability of a hundred nations around the world, the vast majority of which do not have the ability we do to safeguard against terror and sabotage. 9/11 type terror is going the way of the dinosaur. It's too expensive, requires too much effort, and produces too much backlash. The terror of the future is infrastructure terror, small attacks against the machinery that makes modern life function. When infrastructure crumbles, governments crumble along with it.
When a government loses legitimacy, one of two things happens. Either another government rises to take its place, or society fractures along ethnic or religious boundaries. Terrorist groups lack the ability to replace the state, and the state lacks the ability to stop terror, so the first option is highly unlikely in the long term. The second is almost guaranteed. From there it is a short jump to a world of God, or as the demographics would argue, Allah. People will group into suspicious and hostile conclaves that embrace extremist views, the vast majority of which will be faith based. Even those with the potential to realize the truth of western ideals will not have the chance to do so, as both the standard of living and societal tolerance for free thought will have plummeted to the point where such notions will be crushed out.
The US made it's gamble and banked on Iraqi democracy turning the tide of extremism. It didn't work. If anything, Iraq has proved just how easy it is to destroy governmental legitimacy by keeping people's lights off. It will be decades before America is ready for another round of military adventurism. By the time we realize what has happened to the world, it will be too late to do anything about it.
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