Twice as many economists now see recession in US future

[babylonsister]

More Economists See U.S. Recession Ahead, Business Group Says

By Courtney Schlisserman
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Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The number of economists forecasting the U.S. will slip into recession almost doubled over the last two months, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

Nine of 50 economists pegged the odds of a contraction over the next 12 months at 50 percent or higher, according to a poll taken from Oct. 22 to Nov. 6. Just five of 46 held a similar view in September.

The spillover from the biggest housing slump in 16 years, turmoil in financial markets and higher energy prices will cause growth to slow to an annual pace of 1.5 percent this quarter, less than the survey participants previously forecast. More than two-thirds of those polled said the chance of recession was at least 25 percent.

``While the U.S. economy faces a higher risk of recession from credit markets, housing and energy prices, NABE's panelists still do not see recession as the most likely outcome,'' said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, the group's president and chief economist at Ford Motor Co., in a statement.

The economy will expand 2.6 percent from now to next year's fourth quarter, according to the survey. While that is lower than September's forecast, it would still surpass the 2.4 percent projected for 2007.

The survey's median forecast for fourth-quarter growth matched the projection in a Bloomberg News survey also taken earlier this month. Many of the economists surveyed by NABE also participated in the Bloomberg poll.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a8OB88_sjTvw

[papau]

1. Jumped from 10% to 20% of those polled seeing a recession coming - I fear the

minority might be right.

[Justyce]

2. So what's happening now isn't a recession?

Sure looks & feels like it from where I sit.

[dmallind]

3. Wouldn't a better summary be...

18% of economists think it's even half likely that we will be in a recession soon?

[SoCalDem]

4. Handcrafted , with loving hands...especially for the Boomers' retirement downgrade

We entered the adult world to recessions, we started our families in recessionary times, ore kids started college in recessionary, times and seeing as how most of us have all or most of our life's worth tied up in homes we have lived in, it only stands to reason that the housing market would take a collective shit and the economy tank again, just as we enter the "last phase" of our stay here on planet Hardknocks..

[booksenkatz]

5. Here in Michigan, it's in the past and present, as well. NT

[spanone]

6. so i'd reckon that those tax breaks for the ultra rich haven't saved our economy

damn :sarcasm: