Thinktank berates Iraq policy and warns of country's collapse

[cal04]

Iraq can only survive if a functional and legitimate state is rebuilt from the ruins of war and occupation, drawing on the lessons of the collapse of British-ruled Basra, an influential thinktank warns today.

Overall, says the International Crisis Group, it is not enough just to resolve the confrontation between Sunni Arabs, Shia and Kurds. And if the US and Britain continue backing the same Shia political actors, the likely outcome will be the country's break-up into myriad fiefdoms. "Far from building a new state," their Iraqi partners "are tirelessly working to tear it down".

In a powerful critique of current policy, the ICG insists it is vital to avoid repeating the experience of Basra, where UK forces implemented a security plan, Operation Sinbad, similar to the current US-led surge in Baghdad. "The answer to Iraq's horrific violence cannot be an illusory military surge that aims to bolster the existing political structure and treats the dominant parties as partners," it adds bluntly.

Operation Sinbad was a "superficial and fleeting" success, and ended with British troops being driven off the streets in what was seen as an ignominious defeat by the city's militias, now more powerful and unconstrained than before. Some British data about its achievements, particularly about improved police performance, "defies credibility", the group notes.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2110777,00.html

[Lasher]

1. So what if Iraq splits up?

I mean, you've got 3 major groups there who hate each other. Give each of them a place of their own and maybe they'll stop the killing.

[Prophet 451]

2. Because only 1 of those states would be functional

Iraq's oil (and never forget, that's what this is about) is mainly in the middle of the country so whichever group got that part would be happy but the other two would be struggling to survive.

[Lasher]

3. I've seen scenarios where oil revenues were split 3 ways.

So this would be a complication but it wouldn't be prohibitive.

[Prophet 451]

4. Care to share?

I've not seen those scenarios. Also, it must be said, how quickly are we likely to see a civil war to control the oil resources under that plan?

[Lasher]

8. Iraq's oil is not in central Iraq only

You would expect the Kurds to have a northern homeland if Iraq were split up. Southwestern and southeastern Iraq could be divided between Sunni and Shia. &imgrefurl=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/02/iraq_key_maps/html/oil_fields.stm&h=350&w=485&sz=25&hl=en&start=2&um=1&tbnid=mNih7rHQyKhDTM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=129&prev=/images%3Fq%3Diraq%2Boil%2Bfields%26svnum%3D10%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den">Here is a map of Iraq's oilfields shows that your claim (oilfields are located in central Iraq only) is not accurate.

[Prophet 451]

9. Fair enough, retracted n/t

[tabasco]

5. You mean functional like it is now?

Self-determination used to be considered a good thing before we became an empire ourselves. The breakup of Iraq is inevitable. Let it happen and let UN peacekeepers enforce an equitable division of the oilfields based on population. If that doesn't work, tough noogies. At least we won't be sending $700 billion and 100 troops down the toilet every month. Use some of that money to support the UN forces.

[Prophet 451]

7. Fair point, but...

Having knackered the country, is it really moral to pull out and leave them to their own devices?

Also, it must be said, the UN route would only work if Bush and Blair (although he's only got a couple days left) stop undermining the UN.

[genie_weenie]

6. First off the 3 State solution is receipe

for a war with Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Second, the problem is and always will be Baghdad, which faction controls the captial? All resources flow into Baghdad, the power from the Hadithah dam in Anbar and the Oil from Kirkuk in N. Iraq.

The Turks will not allow The Kurds to have even a federal state inside an Iraqi Confederation. The Sunni arabs are not going to be content with controlling a desert with the Euphrates running through it. And the Shia are not going to be content without control over the resources contained in the old Iraqi boundaries.

Additionally, the Sauds are not going to be happy the albeit very small number of foreign fighters will flow into Saudi arabia to cause havoc at the behest of (other) religious fundamentalists.