Iraq: Preparing For The Worst
Robert Dreyfuss
February 28, 2006
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/02/28/iraq_preparing_for_the_worst.phpInside Iraq, all sides are preparing for war. Ominously, the mainstream Sunni Arab bloc, not the resistance per se but the provincial, tribal and mosque leaders of western Iraq, are reportedly forming their own militia forces, called the Anbar Revolutionaries, to defend Sunni territory against marauding Shiite militiamen associated with Muqtada Al Sadr's Mahdi Army. The Post says that Sunnis are forming "local defense forces and conducting their own attacks." Ayatollah Sistani, the Shiite religious leader, is shedding his peaceful pose, calling on Shiites to defend themselves, and he is asking tribal leaders to consider raising their own militias. Sadr's forces are now openly admitting that they have attacked Sunni mosques, sometimes just to kill Sunnis and damage the mosques, sometimes to occupy them and "re-flag" the mosques as Shiite. All of this is happening under the eerie calm of a three-day curfew and vastly stepped up U.S. military patrols.
Outside Iraq, meanwhile, there are dire signs that the conflict might spread to involve Iran and Arab countries. Harith Al Dari, a leading Sunni Arab cleric in Iraq, issued a call on Arab nations to intervene in Iraq to defend Sunnis against attacks by Shiite militias. There have been recent signs of instability in both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. In Saudi Arabia, oil prices spiked after an almost unprecedented attack by a three-car motorcade of car bombs against the huge Abqaiq oil facility, which by itself pumps 8 percent of the world's oil, and in response a major security alert was declared in Kuwait over the weekend. Iran is also flexing its regional muscle: one week after demanding that the Anglo-American forces withdraw from the city of Basra, an Iraqi city that sits just over the border from Kuwait and which is now in the hands of militiamen loyal to Iran, Iranian President Ahmadinejad made a stunning visit to Kuwait, where he delivered a speech that denounced the U.S. occupation of Iraq.
The reality is that an incipient civil war in Iraq, along with fears that the war could become a regional conflagration, means that Bush cannot possibly pretend any longer that Iraq is a work-in-progress in the Middle East democracy showcase. Last fall, you will recall, as the president's poll numbers tanked and American public opinion turned decisively against the war, the White House launched an all-out political offensive on Iraq. Last December, the president gave a series of five major speeches on Iraq, released a strategy paper, held press conferences, and worked hard to convince Americans that the four-point exit plan outlined above might work. Now, all that work is lost. The facts on the ground in Iraq have shattered the rhetoric from the White House.
The only thing holding Iraq back from tipping into civil war now is that most of its imported, formerly exiled leaders, its Kurdish warlords, and its Iranian-backed Shiite religious leaders don't want to lose their access to corrupt payoffs, patronage, and nepotism. They don't want to let the Golden Dome kill the golden goose. That's the ace in the hole that U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad is playing now, counting on Iraq's faction leaders to settle their differences and agree to take part in a national unity government. That, and direct pressure from Bush—who called the seven major Iraqi politicians over the weekend to beg them to avoid civil war—is all that is holding Iraq together. It's an open question whether that will work for another few days, for a few weeks, or until the next act of violence ignites the powder keg.
full article:
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/02/28/iraq_preparing_for_the_worst.php
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