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FIRST REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT CASUALTY OF 2006 - Hostetller GIVES UP (maybe)

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Grebrook Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:17 PM
Original message
FIRST REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT CASUALTY OF 2006 - Hostetller GIVES UP (maybe)
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/17/94153/882

<snip>

Yesterday I wrote that a new poll had Ellsworth over Hostettler by 23 points for Indiana's 8th Congressional District.

It may have been an outlier, but I suggested that it holded some truth, suggesting the writing on the wall.

Indiana political sources seem to agree and now suggest Hostettler has read the latest polls as certain signs of defeat.

Article on flip...

* BWasikIUgrad's diary :: ::
*

The Indiana Howey Political Report (Hoosiers know it) writes that GOP sources say that Hostettler is throwing in the towel:

Informed and reliable Republican sources are telling HPR that U.S. Rep. John Hostettler has essentially given up on his re-election bid. The sources say that Hostettler has informed key Republican allies in Vanderburgh County that he is suspending most of his campaign activities. The sources tell HPR that he came to this conclusion in the last couple weeks. However, he has not been keeping a heavy campaign schedule for much of the fall campaign season. He did not campaign over the tradtional political rollout Labor Day weekend. When the PBS Lehrer Newshour sought out his campaign schedule prior to a mid-September weekend, they were told that Hostettler had no events planned. The sources tell HPR that Hostettler's realization of his bleak re-election prospects prompted him to put more energy into his subcommittee hearings on immigration. Hostettler was also the only Republican Congressional delegation Member to bypass the Indiana GOP's ROMP event at the Columbia Club on Saturday, Oct. 7. The National Republican Campaign Committee has suspended its activites in the 8th CD, after a number of polls showed Democratic Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth with a growing lead. In HPR's 13-year history, we have never witnessed an incumbent congressman throwing in the towel prior to Election Day. Hostettler was first elected in 1994. Watch for further analysis in Tuesday's HPR Daily Wire and the weekly HPR on Thursday. Developing ....

Brad Ellsworth and the IN-8 County Dems have put together a good ground game to win this thing no matter what, and I know they won't buy this for a minute - nor should they (fight to the end!).

But it may be noteworthy that, if true, money will be freed up from IN-08 to dump into IN-09 and/or IN-02 or other races out of state (from the NRCC or RNC).

No more Ho-Jo? Can it be true?

<snip>

Indiana is a big "anti-Republican" state this year because of the unpopular Republican governor, which is why the Dems are leading in three house races there as they are in Ohio and perhaps Kentucky as well.

If this is true, this is some of the best news I've seen all year. Why? Two-fold. Hostettler is a Republican who rode into Congress defeating a Democrat in the 1994 Republican Revolution, and a disastrous defeat would signal the complete end of the revolution and the return of a strong Democratic Congress, and secondly because he's the prick who claimed "Democrats demonize Christians" in the House last year.

One asshole down boys, regardless of whether or not he's actually given up, the polls show he hasn't been given a choice by the voters. They've already made theirs.
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Hosnon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. Alright "Diebolders"...explain this please. EDIT: Also, HOORAY!
Edited on Tue Oct-17-06 03:23 PM by MJDuncan1982
Don't want to come out the gate too negative:)

Good sign...
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. For the machines to work as the Republicans would wish...
they require cooperation from local government, local Republican operatives...the people who will be with the machines in every precinct. And at the countywide central depositories for the votes (no idea what that's called).

If local Republicans refuse to corrupt the machines, if they refuse to do what is necessary to keep out Democratic voters or Republicans voting Democratic, even corrupt Diebold machines will not be able to swing the vote.

The Republicans have lost local support. They have no one to do the dirty work in every little garage and precinct where the machines are set up.

It is very much to the advantage of local, ambitious Republicans to dump this bunch, let the Dems deal with the nasty, ugly, EXPENSIVE cleanup, and then come riding back in as reborn good guys later. They wouldn't have a chance against incumbent Republicans......but they would against incumbent Dems.

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Hosnon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Ok...at least the theory remains coherent. My next question:
At what point does Ockham's Razor come into play here?
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ItsTheMediaStupid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 04:46 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. If the margin is too big, it can't be rigged w/o being obvious.
I think a 23% lead is a safe bet.

OTOH, Max Cleland had to lose 5-10% in less than a week if you believe he was defeated without computer help.
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ItsTheMediaStupid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 04:48 AM
Response to Reply #4
14. Ockham's Razor - numerous exit polls being out of the margin of error
In this case, Ockham's Razor says the vote counting process was tampered with.

Otherwise, the laws of statistics had to be repealed for a day.;)
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never_get_over_it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #2
20. No it really doesn't take that many people
the source code is not available for review - therefore it could be coded anyway and the locals wouldn't even know it. Also the central tabulator can be hacked into and the vote flipped and nobody would know. If it took a lot of people to accomplish this then it would never work because you can't ensure everybody will keep their mouth shut.
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Andrea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. Great News - Thanks
How many R house members can we count as out now, based on them giving up, being indicted, or being deeply in scandal? I'll make a list here and please add to it, I'm sure I'll forget someone.

Hostettler
Ney (actually his replacement)
Foley (or rather his replacement)
Delay (again, his replacement)
Reynolds
Hastert (not sure if I really think this is a sure pick-up yet)
Weldon
Bilbray (not sure yet about this one, either)
Kolbe

Several others from Ohio (my state) look pretty much endangered:
Pryce
Boehner
Schmidt

It won't be the first time I've been accused of being overly optimistic, but I'll go out on a limb here and say that it just might be possible that we will know before Nov. 7th that we are taking back the House.
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Grebrook Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Not that overly optimistic actually, it seems realistic
Ney
Delay
Foley
Reynolds
Weldon
Schmidt
Pryce

All of them are finished. Every single one. I would be shocked if a single one of them were re-elected. Polls have every last one of those sleezebags trailing. Delay's district they can't win in, Foley's they won't even bother trying. Pryce and Schmidt will lose by greater margins than what the polls show because of massive voter turnout in Ohio that will completely eviscerate the GOP from stem to stern all across the state, from the governor's race, to the senate race to the house races.
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Andrea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. I just thought of another one to add to the list
Buchanan (running for Katherine Harris' old FL seat) is on the ropes.

Charlie Cook's piece on MSNBC.com today said he expected Democrats to pick up 25-35 seats in the house, possibly more. He said if he was running Dem strategy, he would go and borrow $10M to fund 20 more candidates.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #3
12. Bilbray: Grand Jury Investigation for fruad.
It seems he didn't live in the district when he ran, or that he can't prove it. That's a big deal. It's fraud. The Grand Jury is formed and when that's out big time, he's done. He is in a district that was designed to be Republican for f'ing ever. That's how bad it is. Lets work hard to make sure that the votes reflect the outcome.
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
6. Jeebus, if I were a Republican volunteer in that district I would be
pissed. He is screwed if he ever wants to run again for anything.
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keta11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
7. He is wacko but he voted against the Iraq war!!
I remember his speech arguing why invading Iraq didn't make sense!
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gully Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Are you sure. I thought only Chaffee did?
nt
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keta11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #10
18. In the Senate only one Republican Senator voted no =
Chaffee

In the Congress six Republican Reps voted no = Hostettler, Ron Paul, Jim Leach, Amo Houghton of NY, and 2 others I cannot name off the top of my mind!
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gully Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. Ah gotcha.
Thanks for the clarification. I do recall as you post this information. Seems like yesterday and an eternity away at the same time.
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never_get_over_it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. Here you go
Edited on Wed Oct-18-06 11:59 AM by never_get_over_it
edited to fix formatting

House Republicans Voting No IWR

Duncan, John (TN 2) - N
Hostettler, John (IN 8) - N
Houghton, Amo (NY 31) - N
Leach, James (IA 1) - N
Morella, Constance (MD 8) - N
Paul, Ron (TX 14) - N

House Independents Voting No IWR
Sanders, Bernard (VT At Large) - N

Senate Republicans Voting No IWR
Chafee, Lincoln (RI) - N

Senate Independents Voting No IWR
Jeffords, James (VT) - N

Senate Democrats Voting No IWR

Akaka, Daniel (HI) - N Bingaman, Jeff (NM) - N
Boxer, Barbara (CA) - N
Byrd, Robert (WV) - N
Conrad, Kent (ND) - N
Corzine, Jon (NJ) - N
Dayton, Mark (MN) - N
Durbin, Richard (IL) - N
Feingold, Russell (WI) - N
Graham, Bob (FL) - N
Inouye, Daniel (HI) - N
Kennedy, Edward (MA) - N
Leahy, Patrick (VT) - N
Levin, Carl (MI) - N
Mikulski, Barbara (MD) - N
Murray, Patty (WA) - N
Reed, Jack (RI) - N
Sarbanes, Paul (MD) - N
Stabenow, Debbie (MI) - N
Wellstone, Paul (MN) - N
Wyden, Ron (OR) - N

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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 04:28 PM
Response to Original message
8. Sorry to say I haven't followed this race, but if those poll numbers
are right, I sure love the trend line. And in Indiana! I love it!
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-17-06 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
11. AND - Has GOP cut off Chocola (R)? Told to stop waiting for a handout
Edited on Tue Oct-17-06 10:57 PM by IndyOp
Indiana Insight reports that the national GOP may be cutting Rep. Chris Chocola off from Party campaign support funds. He cites a Wall Street Journal story that "wealthy House incumbents, such as Indiana Rep. Chris Chocola, are being told to dip into their own personal fortunes to pay for their re-elections rather than waiting for a handout from the national committees." It also quotes the New York Times of 10/17: "The party has not broadcast any advertising in four days on behalf of Representative Chris Chocola, one of three Indiana Republicans who polls suggest are headed for defeat, though Republican officials said that does not mean they have written off Mr. Chocola's seat."

http://www.tippdems.org/?q=node/528

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

PLEASE GOD LET THIS BE A TREND! NATIONWIDE. JUST DROP OUT R's. DROP OUT. There'll be brandy and cigars waiting for you at your mansions, Rush Limbaugh will tell great tales of your bravery...

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dapper Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 05:06 AM
Response to Original message
15. Interesting Dilemna...hmm
Should I tell the person(s) with the "Hostettler" political signs on their lawns that Hostettler is throwing in the towel, or should I allow the rah rah to continue. :evilgrin:

Dap
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and-justice-for-all Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 05:12 AM
Response to Original message
16. Im a Hoosier and wanted Hostettler gone for awhile....
..I am stoked!!

I am voting DEM across the board...No other choice.
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B Calm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 05:57 AM
Response to Original message
17. Indiana the first state they color in red on election night! This is
great news for the people who live behind the Hoosier Iron Curtain!
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