How Republicans could snatch away the Senate if the Democrats win

[bluestateguy]

Stay with me here before criticizing me:

1. Election Night. Democrats win the House. Democrats win Republican Senate seats in Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Bob Menendez holds on in New Jersey. Macaca Allen holds on to win in Virginia. And Joe Lieberman wins, promising to caucus as a Democrat. Apparently Democrats have captured the Senate.

2. We celebrate the apparent capture of both houses of Congress by the Democrats.

3. Karl Rove makes a few phone calls.

4. Donald Rumsfeld resigns to "spend more time with his family".

5. A few days pass.

6. Joe Lieberman is tapped to be his replacement as Secretary of Defense.

7. He accepts the offer, out of "duty to my country in these critical times", and a bunch of other blather about bi-partisanship
and make nice cooperation, etc.

8. The Good Ole' Boys and Girls club in the Senate confirms Lieberman with little or no opposition ("why, he's a colleague! We
can't oppose him!")

8. Governor Rell of Connecticut (R), having just cruised to re-election, appoints some "moderate" Republican to fill
Lieberman's seat.

9. The Senate is now tied at 50-50, which means it's a Republican Senate once again with Dick Chickenhawk casting the tie-breaking
votes.

[aquart]

1. So?

You're assuming it's a gain to the Republicans if Lieberman is re-elected. It is.

But I wouldn't assume one damn thing about this election. Not one.

And Hell is happening whoever wins.

[lonestarnot]

2. You apparently have a misconception of hell. It is much hotter

than we are currently experiencing as it is currently 100% humidity here. Poster in OP makes very excellent point. K & R.

[speedoo]

3. CT Dems could threaten to recall Rell if this were to unfold.

They could demand that she replace LIEberthug with LaMont if it became apparant what was going on. If she did not do as they demanded, they could recall her, just as California recalled the Dem gov. there.

[bluestateguy]

4. Does CT have a recall law?

Not all states have a recall law.

Maybe someone can check that out.

[speedoo]

5. I don't know.

I am also not familiar with the democratic strength in the state legislature. For a state that always votes blue in presidential races, CT has a lot of rethugs in congress and in state offices.

You would think it's time for that to change, what with the Rowland conviction and all the shit going on in DC.

[beltanefauve]

6. I almost follow you.

Except, unfortunately, Missouri and Tennessee are close enough to steal.

[Lexingtonian]

7. no, no, no....

No way is Jody Rell going to appoint a Republican to that seat. Democrats will be making phone calls of their own to Rell. And after Lieberman, the outcome of a recall election isn't going to be victory for another Republican.

If Lieberman goes Republican or there's a tie in the Senate, we'll also have to see what happens with Specter, Collins, and Snowe.

Specter is in fact very sick and will probably resign- if Democrats win the Senate, it's pretty much a certainty. Rendell refused his request to appoint a Republican to his seat last year. So we'd get another Democrat.

Collins and Snowe are hostage to Navy contracts for Bath Iron Works, that's the only true basis for their allegiance to the national Republican Party, and Rove's ability to blackmail them. If Democrats get a Senate majority and guarantee them funding for BIW and its 5-10,000 blue collar workers, they'll keep the R by their names but hardly look or vote as their pals from south of the Mason-Dixon line will.

Fourthly, about 15 Republican Senators in the next Congress will be from Blue States and tipping-Blue states. 8 or so of these are up for elections in '08, and they will have an agitated Democratic half of their state electorate sticking burning sharp objects into them at any given opportunity. Republican Senators are hardly going to be a solid bloc vote in the next Congress- they're going to be a fray of regional blocs and tiers of corruption. (Once again, that is.)

This is not that much of a problem. A fragmented Republican Senate majority won't be much of a power and defections could well happen. A Republican Senate minority will probably have a couple of defectors to Democrats. At worst the initiative will go over to Pelosi and the House, which will embarrass and harass a damaged Republican Senate leadership into ineffectuality.

So, I wouldn't worry. Personally, I think Lamont wins in a squeaker and Democrats get to 52 or 53 seats, making most of these considerations moot. And Arlen Specter resigns in December, having lost his Chair position of the Judiciary Committee. Bob Byrd resigns at the 2007 summer recess, having recovered the glory and the power he lost in 1994. McCain might resign further down the line to run for President full time.

[speedoo]

8. Wow, I thought I was an optimist.

But it appears you've left me in the dust. Fortunately, your ideas have a lot of basis in reality. I just hope the end of Santorum is a precurser to the end of other vile rethugs like Bond and Inhofe. If these guys see that their days of influence are numbered, maybe they will resign as well, before they are voted out.

[Eric J in MN]

10. Why would Olympia Snowe want to swtich to the...

...Democratic Party after winning as a Republican by 4:1?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Lexingtonian]

13. oh, she wouldn't switch her party ID

After all, she pretty much IS the Maine Republican Party.

I'm saying there will be a point where she will say things like "I'm an old school Republican", i.e. disavow being part of the Southern Good Ol' Boy religion-based variety.

[Eric J in MN]

9. There is no evidence that Joe Lieberman has any desire to be...

...Defense Secretary.

I'd rather be a Senator for six years than a Defense Secretary for two years. I assume he would as well.

[never_get_over_it]

11. Also there is no evidence that Joe LIEberman

will caucus with the Dems - oh he says he will but he has lied habitually - he has shown completed disdain for Dem voters and the party by making this "independent" run the repunks are bank rolling his campaign and I don't trust him as far as I can throw him - best thing for those folks in CT to do is to ELECT LAMONT....

[greendog]

16. If Lieberman caucuses with the Democrats...

...any deal he makes will be good for six years. If he caucuses with the Republicans any deal he makes is good till the balance of power shifts. That could happen in '08, or it could happen sooner if a Senator resigns due to illness or scandal.

[ComerPerro]

12. Who says it needs to be nearly that complicated?

My bet is that one of these election cycles they will declare the election results invalid, and then start swearing in whoever they want.

[greendog]

14. Lieberman isn't going to give up a six year term in the US Senate...

...for a two year term as defense secretary in a failing administration. He might be an ass but he's not stupid.

[CorpGovActivist]

15. Meaning Pelosi Should Be Poised...

... to act on the information that Congressman Waxman has been collecting, to start impeachment proceedings in the House to turn Cheney into Bush's own personal Spiro T. Agnew.

- Dave

[BootinUp]

17. Sure thats possible.

Its also possible we don't win Tennessee and Missouri.