Will The Government Fall In Iraq?

[cali]

I don't know what the answer to that question is, but from what I've been reading, Iraq is in the process of going over the precipice now. I think the civil war that's been ongoing for over a year- and I differentiating between sectarian violence and the insurgency- can indeed worsen and become total anarchy; taking down the government and increasing violence against American troops.

What happens then? What happens if the Green Zone takes some substantial hits?

I just can't see the status quo continuing for more than a few months at most.

[yourout]

1. There is no functioning Government in Iraq.

The only thing between the current status and open civil war is the US Armed Forces.

It's not a matter of if there will be all out civil war it is just a matter of when.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. Partition seems to be the only viable option left.

The "sectarian violence" is no longer sporadic and appears to be completely uncontrollabe by the Iraqi government (such as it is) or the American military. The idea that it will somehow stop because "cooler heads" will prevail or that a central government can force the combatants to stop killing each other and the Americans is an exercise in fantasy. Much like the BushCo's vision of flower strewn streets and cheering Iraqis kissing the hands of the conquering American troops.

All of the participants in the violence have backers that are urging them on and supplying them. America and the Brits, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, all have their fingers in the stew.

The Sunni's hate the Shia, the Shia hate the Sunnis, and both hate the Kurds. The carnage that has been going on has inflicted deep wounds and and fortified those hatreds on all sides.

The different factions are already fleeing to areas dominated by their own group. A sort of de-facto partition is already taking place.

The question, IMO, is not if partition will take place, but when and how bloody it will be. The ridiculous idea that the American military is somehow "stabilizing" the situation is absurd. The Iraqis (at least the "leaders" of the factions) are now deciding their own fate.

The American military is now in the position of being the common enemy because no matter what it does, it will be seen as aiding one faction or another.

The way out of Iraq, for America, is to get out.

[cali]

4. I agree.

It seems to be the only plausible solution. Peter Galbraithe has been advocating it for a long time.

[Joe Fields]

3. Without question it will fall. And quickly. And soon.

I have said, almost from the moment that the United States decided what type of country it wanted Iraq to be, and what type of government we would put into place, that the only thing which makes sense is to divide the country into three states: Shiite, Sunni and Kurd. It may not be a perfect solution, and of course problems arise that would need to be ironed out, but it still seems the best of all possible solutions.

[Toots]

5. Would we still get our oil that somehow got placed under their soil?

We will claim there is a government until we are no longer taking the oil. Once we are being kept from the oil we will cause a ruckus and resume killing people...