WHO releases new H5N1 warning

[MercutioATC]

"GENEVA (Reuters) - The risk of bird flu mutating into an form more easily spread between people is still high and there could be an upswing in human infections at the end of the year, the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned on Friday."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2006-06-30T153416Z_01_L30904230_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU-WHO.xml&src=rss

[SaveElmer]

1. Seems more like a recap than a warning...

Mostly a summary of information we already knew.

[MercutioATC]

2. This is the first strong statement on mutation they've issued.

"Moreover, the widespread distribution of the H5N1 virus in poultry and the continued exposure of humans suggest that the risk of virus evolving into a more transmissible agent in humans remains high"

Generally, they've downplayed the mutations. It's less what they said and more the way they said it.

[SaveElmer]

6. Nabarro has made many public statements...

Expressing the view that the possibility of mutation is high. This is not based on any epidemiological evidence, just an analysis of seasonal patterns. There really is nothing new here. And I will be very curious to see how the pattern changes given the progress made in several previously hard hit countries (VietNam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Turkey etc), where there have been no outbreaks in several months.

While I think WHO does a good job, it does seem like they put these kinds of warnings out when Bird Flu news lapses. It has been fairly quiet for the last couple weeks since the cluster in Indonesia. Even the rate of infections there seems to have slowed in the last couple weeks. They may be trying to keep it in the public eye for funding reasons.

[gkhouston]

9. yes, this is the first time they've talked about mutations in a way

that made it sound like they think they're in the offing. I follow the chatter on ProMED (http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1000) (it's a moderated mailing list where all sorts of public health issues are discussed; everything from soybean rust to mumps outbreaks to equine fever to H5N1) and there was some discussion a while back indicating that one of the things the scientists are concerned about is the virus mutating again amongst the wild birds in the breeding grounds. Urgh, let me see if I can go off and find the quote....

this is the link: http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1001:14218056150184796290::::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_ARCHIVE_NUMBER,F2400_P1001_USE_ARCHIVE:1001,20060502.1273,Y

and here's a few paragraphs:

Webster said he's most concerned about the virus becoming established
in the world's wild bird populations. He said most highly pathogenic
avian viruses usually do not last long in nature. They typically
start in wild birds, infect domestic birds and then eventually die out.

"This one has broken the rules and gone back from the domestics into
the wild birds. Is it going to be perpetuated there as a killer?
That's the million dollar question," he said. "Will that virus go to
the breeding grounds in Siberia and Africa and come back again? If it
does, then the chances are eventually it will learn to go human to human."

Webster, who's been researching avian influenza for decades, said the
spread of the virus to Africa is especially worrying because of the
lack of infrastructure, political instability and a health system
already overrun by diseases like HIV/AIDS. With "all of those things
going on in Africa, you could get human-to-human transmission started
and not have the opportunity to do anything about it until it's out
of hand, he said.

The reason this comes to my mind now is that in the past week or so some of the reports have been queries about bird die-offs in Africa and Siberia. Maybe that, coupled with some of the recent cases in Indonesia indicated that limited H2H transmission is becoming more prevalent, has them worried.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

3. quack, quack

BOO!

[MercutioATC]

7. There IS a middle ground, you know...

There are choices other than "panic" and "ridicule".

[Viva_La_Revolution]

8. yes, but they are so passe

I'll worry about it when there is more than a few "might have" cases.

"In a report analysing more than 200 known bird flu cases, the United Nations agency identified three peaks in human infections since 2003, all concentrated during the winter and spring seasons in the northern hemisphere.

"If this pattern continues, an upsurge in cases could be anticipated starting in late 2006 or early 2007," the WHO said, adding that further analysis was needed."

There's nothing new here.

[MorningGlow]

4. Friendly reminder: Don't forget to be terrified!

Were you starting to forget about bird flu? Well, don't!

Booga booga.

:sarcasm: :eyes:

[MercutioATC]

5. No reason to panic. Also, no reason to ignore.

Why would you want to "forget about" bird flu?

Don't panic
Stay informed
Be prepared

Isn't that a more productive approach?