Is the recession ending?

[Sanity Claws]

Paul Krugman said that the recession looks like it will end in September. Here's a link to the Bloomberg article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayAXvw0Mc3CY

What do our talented members here think/feel about the end of the recession? Is Krugman right? Or will the recession deepen in September as some psychics and astrologers have predicted?

[northernlights]

1. no, it's not ending

there may be temporary relief, but then a double-dip. (I think Krugman wrote the other day that there was potential for a double-dip recession.) Any recovery will be "jobless" and therefore can't last. (Although the good news for me is that tomorrow I have an interview -- yay!!! -- for a minimum wage part time job to help me get through the summer.)

From an intuitive perspective, I saw it coming last summer. Actually, I remember thinking I needed to sell some stuff immediately, while people still had money to spend because by next year there won't be spending. At the time, I also saw an upturn starting in the spring (this past spring), followed by a deeper drop. (I was able to sell my garden tractor and york rake in the summer. Tried the guitar in the fall...too late.)

From a practical perspective, until unemployment drops significantly, there won't be a real recovery. An economy 70% dependent on "consumer spending" needs consumers to be employed and confident of ongoing employment. Also consumers not overburdened with credit card debt and with equity in their homes gone. And with the automakers going down, there's going to be a significant increase in unemployment. That won't happen without significant government investment in job creation -- such as investing many, many billions or a couple trillion in high speed rail and alternative energy installations to free us from dependence on foreign oil. I'm not real hopeful there. Aside from the Banksters and rethugs yelling about the deficit (now that the banksters have got their trillions :(), a couple months ago Congress started making noise about a 2nd stimulus and President Obama said no. Unless he's had a change of heart since then...

But it seems as though instead they're simply trying to re-inflate the real estate bubble. My realtor was out today with her camera and sticking her sign in my yard. She said that the banks are back to doing bad loans. She said they're doing a little better on credit checks (which becomes irrelevent when people are losing jobs right and left), but back to doing 0% down and including closing costs in the mortgage. In other words, another round of buyers who can't save for any down payment and have no "skin in the game" or motivation to persevere if/when the market tanks further. I've also confirmed with 2 of the realtors that I interviewed that approximately 2/3s of foreclosed homes have not even been put on the market. In some cases the banks are razing them, but in most cases they're sitting on them waiting for a real estate comeback.

[Cleita]

2. I respect Krugman. He tries to be unbiased and truthful, but on this

I think he's wrong. There is still, IMHO, some malfeasance in the financial scene that hasn't been noticed but will rise to the surface because it has to. People will be shocked, however, in the long run it will be good because it will be the beginning of getting all the underhanded and deceitful goings on out into the open to make our lawmakers strive for real change or else.

[conscious evolution]

3. Not till 2020 or so

In 07 the first wave of boomers started retiring.That number peaks in 2012 and stays at that level for another eight years.
Historicly,the more people that retire every year the worse the stock market does.

Why? Two reasons.
1Retired people make fewer big ticket purchases.The result of such drop in sales should be obvious.
2Retired people sell stock to fund their retirement.
When so many people start selling their stock the value collapses as it does whenever their is a glut in any market.
Either of these situtations can wreak havoc on an economy.Imagine how bad it is gonna be when both factors are at work at the same time.

Its time to hunker down for the long haul,people.Its gonna get bad and it ain't gonna get better anytime soon.

[mother earth]

4. Don't prolong it, SEE it ending now.

Seriously, this is something we need to be over.

[Fire Walk With Me]

5. The Maharishi, from whom I drew the clue about the current economic woes

also stated that India will again become the world's leader, so if this is correct (Yogananda made some overtures about this as well), America will shift into being a second-line power, and will undertake a new, spiritual direction, hopefully and especially regarding taking care of each other versus drooling after that new plasma-screen television.

What a wonderful change that would be.

Reference:

24-May-08

"See you in a year, year and a half. Unless you are willfully blind, you know that the trend shall continue as I've been describing it for several years. There are possible exceptions in regard to positive trends vaporizing some of the potential negatives, as we have not invaded Iran, etc. However, change is constant. Listening to me won't matter then. Except to say, the desired result of the process we are undergoing is consciousness regarding taking care of each other."

http://www.the-gas-station.com/messages.cfm?type=messages&thread_id=63492&lastdays=999#560630

http://www.the-gas-station.com/messages.cfm?type=messages&thread_id=63492&lastdays=999#560632

(Thankfully, the positive trends =have= vaporized the worst of BushCo direction!)

Maharishi Mahesh Yogi: Science of Being and Art of Living: "When the economy is in the news, teach Transcendental Meditation." plus the India prediction at the end in the various pamphlets he's published.

[ricochetastroman]

6. No way

and we are going to be a second-rate country because we haven't listened.
Just like Britain got lured by power 250 years ago when Pluto was last in Capricorn, it's coming down again.
Hopefully, some country WILL learn and WILL lead the way.

Best of luck to Mr. Obama - I hope he can pull it off.