Predictions for the elections by bookies?

[Cleita]

Interesting thread here in GDP

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5706636&mesg_id=5706636

The oddmakers make their predictions for the presidential race. I wonder how they match the astrologers and psychics in accuracy?

[davsand]

1. I doubt the astrologers cover point spreads.

I just keep wondering what would have to be in retrograde to indicate a point spread on a political race...

:rofl:

I have never known how the gambler guys and odds makers come up with the stuff they do. I'm sure there is a system but I have never known what it is. I don't really claim to know much more about astrology, but at least I figure there is a system to that.



Laura

[Celebration]

2. it kind of works like the stock market

supply and demand-- they reach the equilibrium point--as long as there is a lot for the house, too........

I think the chances of, say, Paul, are overstated.....1/250 looks high to me.

I think looking at betting odds is a pretty good way to get the odds, because it is a measure of how much money people will put on the line, and most people take their money very seriously. Furthermore, some of them may use some astrology to make those bets. As an example, an astrologer that comes to the conclusion that Clinton will win the nomination would be very well advised to place a bet, because the betting odds are not favorable to that outcome, and the same $ bet on Clinton would pay off a lot better than a bet on Obama.

And really, isn't it all about "putting your money where your mouth is"?

I find this an interesting topic. Some scientists were using odds and betting to try to figure out something, but now I forget what! LOL. They were each given money to bet on some scientific topic, and the odds themselves were supposed to tell them something about the answer. Gosh I wish I could remember what that was about.

[Why Syzygy]

3. Stephen Hawking bets ..

Using revised calculations, Hawking acknowledged that black holes could, in theory, permit some information (in the form of radiation) to seep out. His turnabout made headlines around the world, partly because it reaffirmed the basic laws of physics, partly because Hawking is the world's most famous physicist, and partly because the great English theorist would now have to pay off a long-standing wager with John Preskill, an astrophysicist at the California Institute of Technology.
...
"Betting is a part of science. It's a way to challenge colleagues about their ideas and have your ideas challenged as well," Peebles said. "Laying a wager is really a way to organize your thinking. If you're going to bet, you've got to figure out how to set it up, what exactly you're betting on and which side you want to be on. It's a way to carry on the scientific conversation.
...
The first known wager in science occurred in 1600 when astronomer Johannes Kepler bet his bitter rival Christian Longomontanus that he could calculate Mars ' orbit around the sun in just eight days. The stakes of the bet have been lost to history.
...more
http://www.longnow.org/press/articles/ArtOdds&EndsWager.php

Remember, too, when it was found that the invisible power brokers have a network set up to bet on world events, including famines, wars, market crashes, etc.?

[Celebration]

4. Thanks. I like Pascal's wager, too. n/t

[Why Syzygy]

5. It applies to "Alien Beings" too!!

Cricket posted the link for the "new earth", and this is part of the article. >


This is the scene - or may be the scene - on what is possibly the most extraordinary world to have been discovered by astronomers: the first truly Earth-like planet to have been found outside our Solar System.

The discovery was announced today by a team of European astronomers, using a telescope in La Silla in the Chilean Andes. If forced bookies to slash odds on the existence of alien beings.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/technology/technology.html?in_article_id=450467&in_page_id=1965
(typo in original)