Life extension

[qazplm]

Basic question. What do folks here think are reasonable paths for extending life over the next 50 years?
I don't need folks to tell us how bad of an idea it is, just curious about the relative science behind it.

Micro-machines?
DNA repair?
Cloning?
Stem cells?
Downloading?
Brain/head transplants?

Some of these are silly, some possible, some not possible in 50 years, but maybe in 150 or 500 years.
So any thoughts? Anyone think there is someone alive today who will be alive 200 years from now?

[Dogmudgeon]

1. Popcorn time!

Nothing gets people upset like life extension does.

After all, death is just a natural part of life -- as long as it's someone else who's doing the dying.

:popcorn:

Anything is possible. Only a few of those things will happen.

--d!

[PoliticAverse]

2. Most likely...

Stem cell research, replacement organ cloning, nano-machines.
Will still probably need a breakthrough involving reversing the aging mechanism to live
beyond 120 or so.

[qazplm]

3. if you could say

replace the major organs, through say stem cells or cloning or whatnot, heart, liver, kidneys, lungs and you could use new drugs or nano-machines to keep the arteries and veins clear and vibrant, would you really need to reverse the aging process to have folks live past 120?

Wouldn't you in effect have a body with several actual ages...brain would obviously be say 130, maybe skin as well, but the major organs might be only 40. Bones would obviously have to be addressed as well.

[PoliticAverse]

6. Perhaps.

The "120 years" figure has been accepted for so long and seems to be around the upper limit so far
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people ) that I think if more people started reaching that age we'd
find more things that prevented people from getting much older.
I understand that an increasing number of scientists feel that the 120-year figure is just arbitrary and
that there isn't anything special about it.

[qazplm]

9. there seems good reason to accept

it as the maximum age the various bits can reach without breaking down completely.

I do wonder just how extensive one would have to "retrofit" the human body. Are the major organs enough? At some point does the brain also get too old? Those 100+ folks don't seem to have significant erosion in brain capacity.

A lot of those folks who live to 120 just die. They don't necessarily get a disease or even cancer that ends up being the cause of death, so that suggests to me that if you can simply get enough important parts renewed, there is nothing magical about 120. I'd think you could live for a significant period of time were one able to plug and play new parts as needed. Illness, injury, and brain death all loom as eventually killers of course.

[Posteritatis]

10. Who's to say even the brain won't be retrofittable eventually anyway?

Or otherwise augmented/complimented by additional systems. At least if we're thinking long term, fifty, a hundred, two hundred years from now. Assuming the world doesn't finally get around to engaging in thermonuclear fellatio with itself or whatever other depressingly plausible BS there is, I've more or less given up on assuming hard nearby limits to what people are likely to figure out in the future. That particular one kicks off all sorts of "is the patient still the same person?" questions, of course, but I find those sorts of thought experiments fun anyway.

On a lighter note, a lot of my friends joke about a future of quick-and-easy insert-body-part-here replacement and the extreme sports potential.

[qazplm]

12. yeah that's the thing for me

if you aren't the same person anymore, then kinda what's the point.

It is an interesting thought experiment though.
You replace one neuron with an artificial one I think we'd all say, you are undoubtedly the same person.
But at what point does that cease to be?

[Posteritatis]

13. Yeah, I have no idea myself

And would probably have to be going through the process to know for sure. Of course, if I did and it was competently applied, I'd still be me regardless of whether I was me anymore, which is the sort of thought spiral that makes me reach for the Tylenol.

I've known people who draw the "not you anymore" line at artificial hands though, even today, so I imagine they'd have strong opinions on something like this. Of course, I wouldn't share those opinions; I'm one of those types who wants a HUD someday. ;)

[qazplm]

14. yeah

I am hoping for robot bodies myself.

I agree you'd probably never know you weren't you even if you were conscious for the whole process and even if you really weren't you anymore.

Ugh, it is mind blowing isn't it.

[damntexdem]

4. How about better funding for public health?

As second best, true universal healthcare coverage?

But there are a good many GOP politicians who I think need brain/head transplants to improve their thinking. Unfortunately, I hate to think of all the monkeys that would have to be donors. ;-)

[qazplm]

5. sure

but this thread is looking at the science behind life extension and it is something I am curious about.

I understand we have too many people, and I understand we have not enough resources, and the moral/ethical implications of extending natural lifespans.

I'm not interested in those areas simply the science behind it. When and what folks think are reasonable/feasible avenues that might be explored, whether we want them to or not.

[txlibdem]

18. Not enough *easily grabbed and stolen* resources -- it's a Capitalism problem not a resource problem

Bear with me on this one. There is no limit to the resources that are now available to us because we now have access to the asteroids. But all we hear from the lobbyists and paid pundits is doom and gloom about scarce resources. What they really mean is that the resources that can be taken for next to nothing (just a bribe to a politician and a big scoop machine) are getting fewer and farther between. Billions in profit for the Capitalists, and the toxic waste products are left for the local population (most likely lower income Americans) to suffer the cost of; in higher medical bills due to polluted water, toxic metals in the soil, etc. It's been a rich f*ker's dream for hundreds of years: paying pennies for resources that rightfully belong to every citizen of a nation then selling that very same resource right back to its rightful owners at a fantastic profit. What idiot can fail to get rich with that scenario?!?

Now we, the politically unconnected, are paying the price for the pollution in the air, water, and land that uncontrolled Capitalism has brought while the rich have moved their headquarters to a PO Box in the Caribbean where they pay NO US TAXES, they own vast tracts of land in the few remaining "unspoiled" parts of the world and villas in far away places so they can escape the consequences of their disastrous and deadly practices at any time.

Thus, the best way to extend lifespans is to immediately end Capitalism, outlaw profit and greed and money (they don't call it the root of all evil for nothing).

[laconicsax]

7. I'm reminded of the Law of Futurology:

y-t=0, where y=approximate number of years left the life of a futurist and t=years futurist thinks it will be until immortality is discovered. (http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=1968#comic">link)

[qazplm]

8. I'm not suggesting immortality

I'm talking about 150, or 200.

Immortality is crazy talk IMO.

[laconicsax]

11. I never said you were. n/t

[TheMadMonk]

15. Immortality of a sort is possibly easier we only have to figure out how...

...to move a psyche into a computer.


Full corporeal immortality is a whole different matter, probably orders of magnitude harder.

[Nihil]

16. "Mindstar Rising" et al?

> Immortality of a sort is possibly easier we only have to figure out how...
> ...to move a psyche into a computer.

That would open up a right can or worms in the morality/ethics arena though ...

[qazplm]

17. I think it goes back to what makes you, you

I don't even know what a psyche is, what it is made of, what it encompasses.

If it's simply a certain "pattern" then maybe I suppose uploading would one day work. But we know now that our brains are different not just at the microscopic level or the macroscopic level but at the quantum level. I don't know how you replicate that.

I have pretty high doubts that life extension that keeps you, you, involves anything other than an intact or mostly intact brain.
Not impossible, but close. Then again, am I a "different" me than I was 20 years ago? I don't think so, but the almost 41 year old me thinks and acts quite differently than the almost 21 year old me did.

[txlibdem]

19. Each person's brain grew from a single cell, as did our entire body

The question I think you're getting to is: where does the organic electrochemical grey matter give rise to "you" instead of another Adolph Hitler or Albert Einstein, DaVinci or the guy who lives under a freeway overpass. And the "you" that exists today is probably quite different than the "you" that existed 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc. So making an exact copy of who you are today may not include the ability to grow and evolve as a flesh and blood person would, perhaps a similar function is possible. But if you made that copy at age 40 and came back 20 years later would the two "you"s be the same (presuming a method of updating the memories of the cyber "you" to discount the possibility that experiences or environment cause change in one but not the other)?

[qazplm]

20. probably yes

if you are excluding all difference in experiences and environment.

maybe if those things are mild, maybe not if those things are severe.

We know that traumatic brain damage can fundamentally change someone's personality, that strikes me as believing that one's "self" is fundamentally tied, at least in part, into the literal structure of one's brain, the alignment of neurons.

Which makes me doubt that "mind uploading" is really you anymore.

[tinrobot]

21. Healthier lifestyles?

Right now, the best way to extend life is to eat less, eat right, reduce stress, and stay active.

All of the methods you list are possibilities, but I think life extension will start with healthier lifestyles. You have to have that as a foundation before any of these other methods.

[txlibdem]

22. Ask a centenarian, they'll tell you all of their bad habits

It's genetic more than anything else in my opinion. Luck probably plays a huge part as well.

I've seen far too many interviews with 100+ year olds who smoke and drink and some even cuss up a storm. Some are happy and some are bitter and miserable so that puts the lie to those who say that having a "positive outlook on life" is the key. While most are thin there are some who are overweight. So what's the answer?

[tinrobot]

23. Except the regions with the largest populations of centenarians...

...are also the regions that practice healthy eating/lifestyles.

Okinawa is a good example, San Marino another, but there are many others.

[txlibdem]

25. Read my other post about Azerbaijan

Healthy eating and lifestyles are just a good idea but the facts speak for themselves. From my research on all the bad habits of the people who *actually* live beyond 100, they don't all practice healthy eating nor healthy lifestyles so that can't be the answer. Logic dictates that you need to include the data that disproves your theory along with that which supports it.

[tinrobot]

26. Healthy lifestyle extends all lives, regardless of genetics

Even if you're programmed to die at a younger age than some, you'll still live quite a bit longer than your genetic pool if you live healthy.

It's like the difference between an old Ford and an old Mercedes. The old Mercedes is probably 'genetically' built to last longer, but if the Ford is well taken care of, then it would easily outlast all the other Fords and probably outlast a poorly maintained Mercedes.

So, like I indicated before, healthy lifestyle will always be an important factor in longevity. No matter what other therapies people develop to live longer, proper care of your body will almost always add years of longevity to the equation.

[txlibdem]

29. Thanks for agreeing with me

That's basically the same thing I said in one of my earlier posts. Eating right and keeping active is probably a good thing to do and may even give you more years of "healthy" life but the data shows that there is no correlation between "living right" and living exceptionally long. Look at Jim Fix, the person who single-handedly started the fitness and jogging craze -- he died of a heart attack at age 52.

It's genetics plus luck.

On 20 July 1984, Fixx died at the age of 52 of a fulminant heart attack, after his daily run, on Vermont Route 15 in Hardwick.

...snip...

Granted access to his medical records and autopsy, and after interviewing his friends and family, Cooper concluded that Fixx was genetically predisposed (his father died of a heart attack aged 43 and Fixx himself had a congenitally enlarged heart).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Fixx

He had absolutely zero chance of living to age 100.

[txlibdem]

24. Links to photos and centenarian interview

Shows this and overweight women centenarians and supercentenarians (110 years old+):
http://www.grg.org/Calment8.html
... see this link for more photos: http://www.grg.org/calment.html

Is the answer in giving up all your "bad habits?" Here is the stats for one centenarian gentleman:

Family History:

Father: George died at age 53;
Mother: Lidy Ingram died at age 69;
Siblings: He had two sisters and one brother (younger). The sisters died at 96 and 103 yo, respectively; and his brother died at age 84.
Spouse: His wife, Matie, died at age 78 in 1964 (when he was 75).
Children: They had 2 boys (and 2 girls?), and there are now numerous grandchildren and great grandchildren.

Social History:

Tobacco: Smoked 1 pack of cigarettes per day at one point;
Alcohol: "I drank some beer."
Caffeine: He religiously drinks one cup of coffee before each meal.
Occupation(s): Farmer, and later, truck driver.

Mental Status:

He is able to feed himself.

He sang a song for the staff.

Question: Who is the President of the United States? Answer: "I don't pay attention to that sort of thing."

Question: How much does a car cost today? Answer: "I don't know because I haven't bought a car in a long time."

Question: When did you retire? Answer: "I'm not retired yet!"

Laboratory Data:

A blood sample was drawn last year and sent for analysis to the New England Centenarian Study . Hopefully, DNA SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) of important longevity genes will be studied systematically in the Centenarian population.

http://www.grg.org/JMcMorran.htm

... from this page http://www.grg.org/CalmentMen.html (click on the pictures to get their stats)

(note that Farming is listed as one of the most dangerous occupation in America -- how much of a part does luck play?)

Some would call these bad habits:

Antonio Todde, a New Record-Holder at 111, and his Daughter Angela, 76.
World's Oldest Living Man Owes It All to Wine, Pasta, and Genes
by
John Follain, The Times of London
Photograph by Nick Cornish

July 30, 2000; Tiana, Sardinia, ITALY (The Sunday Times of London) -- When Antonio Todde was born in his remote village in the heart of Sardinia, Benito Mussolini had just started school on the Italian mainland and in Paris the Eiffel Tower was inching its way skywards. Now, 111 years later, the retired shepherd is claiming his own piece of history as the world's oldest man.

Not that he is unduly excited about his forthcoming entry in The Guinness Book of Records. Smartly turned out in a starched white shirt and dark suit, with a typical Sardinian flat cap perched on his crop of silver hair, Todde asked in a husky voice: "You have come all this way to tell me that I'm the oldest man? Who says so?"

The answer lies with a group of biochemists from the University of Sassari, who chanced across Todde as they combed Sardinia's census records to discover why the island has such a high proportion of centenarians - more than 13 per 100,000 inhabitants. Astonished to see his birth certificate dated January 22, 1889, they established that he was older than the current holder of the Guinness record, Mr. Benjamin Harrison Holcomb, an Oklahoma farmer who was born on July 3rd of the same year. Mr. Holcomb's longevity is attributed to an ability to weep freely, reducing the impact of any stress. But Mr. Todde, who has spent his life in Tiana at the foot of the Gennargentu mountains, has a simpler formula. "You take one day after the other, you just go on," he said. "Just love your brother and drink a glass of good wine."

http://www.grg.org/atodde.htm

Here is what one centenarian said:

CENTENARIAN Alice Chadwick says the secret to a long life is a dry martini every day before lunch.

Mrs Chadwick who has just celebrated her 100th birthday said the cocktail, sometimes with a little gin, had kept her life long and healthy.

The Revidge resident celebrated her birthday with dozens of friends and family at the Blackburn Golf Club on January 6.

Mrs Chadwick who joined the club in 1944, with her husband John, played until she was 90 and over the years has represented it as both captain and president.

She said: "I have been very active all my life and played a lot of golf but I do think the dry martini once a day has definitely contributed.

http://www.blackburncitizen.co.uk/news/8781274.Blackburn_centenarian_reveals_secret_of_long_life_is_dry_martini_every_day_before_lunch/

"Centenarians are a very diverse group of people. Some follow very healthy lifestyles and others break every rule and reach extreme old age despite drinking and smoking and lousy diets."
http://www.thecentenarian.co.uk/typical-lifetime-dietary-habits-of-centenarians.html
(particularly interesting is the paragraph about Azerbaijan centenarians: they eat lots of dairy fats and milk)

With such a small population of centenarians and supercentenarians to study and such differences in their lifestyles I can't say with any certainty that lifestyle has any influence at all.

[tinrobot]

27. One thing you'll notice with all these people is moderation

They drink "one" dry martini per day, a "few" beers, "one" cup of coffee before a meal, a pack of cigarettes a day "at one point"

In moderation, alcohol can actually be good for you, and coffee can also be very beneficial. The cigarettes not so great, but notice that he did stop.

And these are just a few people out of the tens of thousands who live past 100 every year. But, if you study them collectively, you'll notice that they do tend to share similar lifestyle choices - they eat moderately, low stress, strong families, regular exercise, etc.

[txlibdem]

28. Sorry but I have to disagree, not all of them do bad habits in moderation

The one gentleman smoked a pack of cigarettes a day and drank an undisclosed amount of beer. That's not a person who lived in moderation.

Some of the centenarians are overweight, that's also not due to eating in moderation.

It seems to me that you are either trying to justify the sacrifices to your lifestyle or you're trying to convince yourself to ease up on the bad habits a bit. I'm just looking at the facts. Go to the links I posted and look at the pictures, read their lifestyle stats. You'll see that there are no set rules to how they've lived their lives.

This is why I said it's a combination of genetics and luck.

[tinrobot]

30. A handful of examples do not equal a statistical sample

Sure, some lucky people will get to smoke/drink their way to 100. Perhaps these people would live to 120 if they didn't smoke or drink.

What most studies have shown is that, when there are concentrations of 100+ year olds, the populations have several things in common. They don't overeat, have low stress, strong families, and the people tend to exercise (such as daily walks.) I'm sure some of these people smoke/drink/overeat, but their overall lifestyles do follow predictable patterns.

I'm not trying to justify anything, I was just pointing out the obvious - that leading a reasonably healthy lifestyle will add years to your life. Many times we look to the high-tech solutions as our savior and tend to ignore the obvious. When the OP talks about head transplants, stem cells and other wild attempts to lengthen life, I thought that something as simple and inexpensive as eating right and exercising should be mentioned.

[qazplm]

31. but 100

isn't outside of the normal range of human lifespan...so it isn't what I am talking about when I say life extension.

I'm talking about ways to extend the range of human lives to 150, 175, 200.

And you aren't going to get there other than "wild attempts" at lengthening life.

[Kip Humphrey]

32. Easy! Clone sufficient micro-machines to repair DNA in stem cells

with instructions downloaded remotely. Definitely NOT a brain/head transplant, it just simply wouldn't be you looking back in the mirror no more!

[qazplm]

33. I think nanomachines

is something we will definitely see in the next 20-30 years although unsure if they will be able to stop aging that quickly.

I obviously don't think a head/brain transplant is something likely in the next 100 years. Even if you could get stem cells to the point that you could regrow nerves (thus making the only biological impediments to such a transplant keeping the brain alive long enough for the transfer plus perfecting cloning of a whole body), and even if you could overcome those pretty steep impediments, the moral issues of cloning would keep the necessary technology from ever coming to pass in the next several hundred years.

I do wonder though if stem cells could be used to grow new organs, effectively replacing the body a bit at a time combined with using stem cells and DNA repair to help with things like skin, bones, eyes, arteries, etc.