Latino vote expert disputes exit polls - People's Weekly Wortd

[AmyCrat]

http://www.pww.org/article/articleview/6081/1/240/
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LOS ANGELES — Latino leaders are disputing election exit polls that indicate a more than 10 percent increase in support for George W. Bush in 2004 compared to 2000. They point to an exit poll designed to reflect Latino demographics indicating that the Latino vote stayed at 2-to-1 for the Democratic ticket.

An exit poll by Edison Media Research for major media outlets, including AP, CBS, CNN and NBC, widely publicized its projection that the Latino presidential vote was 53 percent for Kerry to 44 percent for Bush. A Los Angeles Times exit poll seemingly validated this with a 54-45 breakdown.

“It’s simply not so,” said Antonio Gonzalez, who as president of both the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project (SWVREP) and its research arm, the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI), is a foremost authority on Latino voting trends. The WCVI conducted its own exit poll that showed a 68-31 margin for Kerry.

SWVREP has been conducting voter projects among Latinos since 1974 and has spearheaded the more than tripling of the Latino national vote. Its experience with national media polls has consistently showed an undercount of urban Latinos in their methodology, Gonzalez said in an interview with the World.
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[CAcyclist]

1. Finally!

I would think Bush would have lost support from latinos, not gained them.

Another stake in the heart of the phantom fair election

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. This is a very important factor in determining Bush's numbers

In Florida it would be even more important. I can't believe the 10% increase.

The link below shows 40 million Latinos in U.S. 30 million would be voting age, and maybe 20 million voted. even if Bush got his 10% increase from 2000 that is only 2 million more votes.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762156.html

[CAcyclist]

4. kick

[CAcyclist]

7. "Only " 2 million is still huge and unbelieveable

Bush only had 4.6 million minority votes including all non-white groups in 2000. He increased his support among all non-white groups by 3.1 million, which is a 69% increase. At the same time, Kerry only increased his minority support over Gore's by 30%.

I can't recall the breakdown of Bush's minority support but I believe it was roughly 40% hispanic , 40% asian and 10% black.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Here's another article saying that of entire vote only 8% Latino

If 115 million voted then that is only 9.2 million, so Bush could only have increased his total by even his own best estimate by 900,000 votes.
It is interesting in that even this cannot account for the huge numbers of new Bush supporters he supposedly won.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20041111-9999-1n11hispanic.html

[demosincebirth]

3. I know many, many latinos that voted ( including my family), and only...

one voted for Bush. She is the only one that goes to a fundy church.

[CAcyclist]

6. Imagine if the Hispanic Groups

demanded a nation-wide recount! Now, that would get some serious attention and put to bed this misperception that latinos are somehow turning conservative.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. Errors attributed to "undercount of urban Latinos"

SWVREP has been conducting voter projects among Latinos since 1974 and has spearheaded the more than tripling of the Latino national vote. Its experience with national media polls has consistently showed an undercount of urban Latinos in their methodology, Gonzalez said in an interview with the World.

While the majority of the national population is non-urban, Latinos have the highest urban concentration of all national groups, Gonzalez said. The 2000 census had Latinos making up 12.5 percent of the nation’s population, but 19.3 percent of the population in the country’s cities. While the majority of Latinos vote Democratic, non-urban Latinos do so proportionately less. Most polls survey a larger number of non-urban voters. The East LA area has the most concentrated Latino population at over 96 percent. The area voted 84 percent for Kerry.....