Sorry if I sound too insistent on this

[RaulVB]

I have been trying to find the other tread where I saw this earlier but I guess I lost it.

The number of votes this time around are:

Bush/Cheney : 59.700.000 (roughly)

Kerrey/Edwards : 56.200.000 (roughly)

Back in 2000, the Democrats got 49.900.000 of votes and the Republicans got 49.400.000. Nader got 2.500.000.

The turnout increased 18% for Bush in 2004 and only 8% for the Democratic ticket.

Why I say this.

Because you need to understand that the "Nader votes" had to go somewhere and I don't think Bush would be the first option, right?

So is a net gain of 4.5 million for Kerry. The republicans not only matched that, they got also 5.200.000 of new voters!

The 4.000.000 of evangelical christians ALL OF THEM SHOWED UP TO VOTE and after that they got 5.200.000 of new voters on their side...
NONSENSE! (well MIRACLE!!!)

This is the piece that the "Carville's and Begalas" of this world want you to take as credible.

Bush's numbers challenge any known statistical trend.

Regards.

[HEAVYHEART]

1. Not sure which thread you're looking for

but I'm kicking this thread for others to see.

[RaulVB]

2. Thanks, I saw it few minutes ago...

Is the one talking about the "9 millions of new votes" that Bush "won" this time.

[crispini]

3. You've been listening to Randi Rhodes, eh?

IT'S A MIRACLE. :D

Too freakin funny.

And correct, may I add.

[DuckFan4ever]

15. Good ol' Randi....

gotta love her spirit.

[jsamuel]

4. Dang Bloggers and their pesky thing called Logic!

Ok, lets just look at the situation of where votes came from.

Bush got 9 Million more votes this time than in 2000. Some people have seen this and went, “how did that happen?” In response many people say, “Gore people went to Bush.” That is true. So, how many went to Bush? The number that is pretty much in every poll (exit or otherwise) is 7% of Gore voters voted for Bush.

Ok, so Bush picked up 7%. Wait, but those same polls say 11% of Bush voters switched to Kerry. Great, now Bush got 11 Million more votes that are unaccounted for.

That would mean that 11 Million NEW voters decided to vote for an incumbent. While that is possible, it goes against everything we know about Presidential elections. Even if it were true, where did the 11 Million come from? To take it straight from the Rove’s mouth, it came from Evangelical Christians. So, according to that theory 11 Million NEW Evangelical Christians decided to vote for Bush. The only problem with that is that there are only 4 Million (according to Rove) in the country and 2 Million of them voted for Bush last time.

(all this without giving lost Nader votes to Kerry)

So, we are back to 9 Million NEW extra votes for Bush… Anyone care to give it a try?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. Historical facts of 2nd term elections

compiled from this other thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x40914

Clinton up by 2.5 million
1992 (Voting Age Pop. turnout = 55.0%)
Clinton 44,909,326 (43.0%)
George Herbert Walker Bush 39,103,882 (37.4%)
Perot 19,741,657 (18.9%)
Others 670,149 (0.6%)

1996 (VAP turnout = 48.9%)
Clinton 47,401,898 (49.2%)
Robert Joseph Dole 39,198,482 (40.7%)
Henry Ross Perot 8,085,373 (8.4%)
Others 1,704,065 (1.8%)

Reagan up by 10.5 million
1980 (VAP turnout = 52.8%)
REAGAN 43,898,770 (50.8%)
CARTER 35,480,948 (41.0%)
ANDERSON 5,719,222 (6.6%)
CLARK 920,049 (1.1%)
Others 477,862 (0.6%)
total votes cast: 86,496,851

1984 (VAP turnout = 53.3%)
REAGAN 54,451,521 (58.8%)
MONDALE 37,565,334 (40.5%)
Others 624,187 (0.7%)
total votes cast: 92,641,042

Nixon up by 15 million
1968 (VAP turnout = 60.9%)
NIXON 31,710,470 (43.4%)
HUMPHREY 30,898,055 (42.3%)
WALLACE 9,446,167 (12.9%)
Others 965,512 (1.3%)

1972 (VAP turnout = 55.2%)
NIXON 46,740,323 (60.3%)
McGOVERN 28,901,598 (37.3%)
Others 1,861,737 (2.5%)

Eisenhower up by 1.8 million
1952 (VAP turnout = 61.6%)
EISENHOWER 33,778,963 (54.9%)
STEVENSON 27,314,992 (44.4%)
Others 457,964 (0.7%)

1956 (VAP turnout = 59.3%)
EISENHOWER 35,581,003 (57.6%)
STEVENSON 25,738,765 (41.6%)
Others 539,873 (0.9%)

[blm]

6. And he did it with a 47% approval rating. Miracle of miracles.

.

[Cheswick2.0]

7. yes a 47% approval rating and conservative papers endorsing Kerry

in droves. God really must love George W Bush.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Right. Look at my numbers above- Bush as pop. as Reagan?

no way. Impossible.
We are to believe Bush replicated Reagan's 1984 landslide pickup of 10.5 million voters.

[RaulVB]

9. Reagan vs Mondale

Yes, my friends.

Look at Reagan's victory:

I want any of the DNC "electoral geniuses" to explain how Bush 04 victory is almost as big as Reagan's victory over Mondale!!!

[jsamuel]

11. Mondale also lost votes from Carter. Those are not NEW votes, but switches

Look at the numbers. Regan won every state but MN in 1984. The gain that Regan got was Mondale's loss of Carter votes. NOT THE CASE HERE! 11% of Bush votes went to Kerry, 7% of Gore votes went to Bush!

[RaulVB]

13. I understand your point

Bush 04 "miracle" can't be compared to known electoral data. But if the DNC try to sell this garbage, trust me, they are going to look at Reagan vs Mondale, which is an utter and complete nonsense.

[althecat]

10. I have written lots of threads on this...

George Bush's 8 Million New Votes Found – A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=19390

See also..
Show Me The Votes
or
Where Did George Suddenly Get 11 Million New Friends?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00124.htm#4

[RaulVB]

12. Thanks!

I am making copies of this.

What you did will be read in history books. I am not joking.

[lostnfound]

14. I'm so happy, I didn't know my chart got used!

Yayy! I feel slightly useful!! :-)

Nice column. I'm passing it to a mainstream journalist I know whose newspaper is interested in the issue.

[althecat]

16. Thanks... you might want to pass them this too...

And thanks for the chart too...

It is an update of the TIA, Faun Otter Socaldemocrat analysis with more data.

Scoop: 47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=38567&mesg_id=38567