The exit poll response optimizer has found that the minimum
feasible alpha (K/B) required to satisfy WPE constraints is
1.155, not 1.12 as stated by E-M.
Since 1.155 is a minimum (we do not know the exact value),
this sensitivity analysis looks at .01 increments in aggregate
alpha above 1.155 to see the effects on the five partisan
precinct groupings, specifically on Kerry's vote percentages
and alphas.
The sensitivity analysis indicates that as aggregate alpha
increases, High and Moderate Bush precinct alphas also
increase. The fitted linear curves for these two group have
slopes of .1238 and .0224, respectively.
On the other hand, non-partisan, High and Moderate Kerry
precincts have near-zero slope.
I leave it to the quants to draw any conclusions.
The corresponding graph image is in post #1.
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL
7/1/05 1:34 PM
OBJECTIVE:
Determine partisan precinct quintile K/B for .01 increments of
aggregate K/B (alpha)above minimum feasible alpha (1.155)
required to satisfy precinct WPE's.
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:
1- Response rates:48-58%
2- Kerry 20% quintile 2-party vote
3- Alpha (K/B): range from 1.155 to 1.23
4- WPE:provided by E-M
VOTE Mil. Pct (Input)
Kerry 59.027 48.76%
Bush 62.029 51.24%
Total 121.056
POLL Mil. Pct
Kerry 63.127 52.15%
Bush 57.929 47.85%
Bush-recorded 51.24%
----------------------------------------------------
K/B (alpha) sensitivity analysis
Aggregate HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK
1250 40 415 540 165 90
k/b 1.155 1.500 1.156 1.173 1.098 0.996
Kerry 52.15% 25.0% 42.3% 53.5% 63.0% 82.2%
ln a 0.144 0.405 0.145 0.159 0.094 -0.004
k/b 1.160 1.662 1.156 1.173 1.095 0.996
Kerry 52.15% 20.1% 42.2% 53.4% 65.2% 81.3%
ln a 0.148 0.508 0.145 0.160 0.091 -0.004
k/b 1.170 1.746 1.191 1.166 1.084 0.997
ln a 0.157 0.557 0.175 0.154 0.081 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 18.4% 34.9% 55.5% 72.9% 88.6%
k/b 1.180 1.764 1.236 1.154 1.082 0.997
ln a 0.166 0.568 0.212 0.143 0.079 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 18.1% 28.9% 59.4% 74.5% 90.0%
k/b 1.190 1.769 1.275 1.147 1.082 0.997
ln a 0.174 0.570 0.243 0.137 0.079 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 18.0% 25.2% 62.1% 74.8% 90.4%
k/b 1.200 1.805 1.305 1.145 1.080 0.997
ln a 0.182 0.590 0.266 0.135 0.077 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 17.4% 23.1% 62.8% 76.8% 92.4%
k/b 1.210 2.041 1.305 1.153 1.074 0.997
ln a 0.191 0.713 0.266 0.142 0.071 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 14.6% 23.1% 60.0% 83.0% 99.6%
k/b 1.220 2.360 1.305 1.152 1.074 0.997
ln a 0.199 0.858 0.266 0.142 0.071 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 12.4% 23.1% 60.1% 83.0% 99.6%
k/b 1.230 2.676 1.305 1.152 1.074 0.997
ln a 0.207 0.984 0.266 0.141 0.071 -0.003
Kerry 52.15% 11.0% 23.1% 60.2% 83.0% 99.6%
---------------------------------------------------
EXIT POLL RESPONSE (input)
Aggregate 53.0% R
Kerry/Bush 1.155 (alpha)
This is minimum alpha required to satisfy WPE/partisanship
constraints.
PROBABILITY
Bush vote gain 1.59E-11
1 in 62,953,509,332
Kerry > 50% vote 100.0%
1 in 1
PARTISAN ALPHA
Kerry 1.062
Bush 1.186
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90
KERRY WIN%
Min 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Max 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
RESPONSE
Min 48% 48% 48% 48% 48%
Max 58% 58% 58% 58% 58%
ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Max 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
WPE
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Min -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Max -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
------------------------------------------------
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
Vote Pct Votes (millions)
Poll Vote Diff Poll Vote Diff
Kerry 52.15% 48.76% -3.39% 63.127 59.027 -4.100
Bush 47.85% 51.24% 3.39% 57.929 62.029 4.100
Diff 4.29% -2.48% -6.77% 5.199 -3.002 -8.201
Pship HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK Total/Avg
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Vote 3.874 40.191 52.296 15.979 8.716 121.056
Pct 3.2% 33.2% 43.2% 13.2% 7.2% 100.0%
RESP. 50.0% 56.0% 51.0% 50.0% 58.0% 53.0%
Dev -3.0% 3.0% -2.0% -3.0% 5.0% 0.0%
ALPHA
K/B 1.500 1.156 1.173 1.098 0.996 1.155
Dev 29.9% 0.1% 1.5% -4.9% -13.7% 0.0%
ln a 0.405 0.145 0.159 0.094 -0.004 0.144
VOTE
Kerry 0.77 15.76 25.73 9.59 7.18 59.027
Pct 20.0% 39.2% 49.2% 60.0% 82.3% 48.76%
Bush 3.10 24.43 26.56 6.39 1.54 62.029
Pct 80.0% 60.8% 50.8% 40.0% 17.7% 51.24%
RESPONDERS
Kerry 0.97 16.98 27.95 10.06 7.16 63.127
Pct 25.0% 42.3% 53.5% 63.0% 82.2% 52.15%
Bush 2.91 23.21 24.34 5.92 1.55 57.929
Pct 75.0% 57.7% 46.5% 37.1% 17.8% 47.85%
REFUSERS
Kerry 15.0% 35.3% 44.8% 57.1% 82.5% 45.03%
Bush 85.0% 64.7% 55.2% 42.9% 17.5% 54.97%
VOTE DEVIATION
Kerry -0.19 -1.23 -2.22 -0.47 0.01 -4.10
WPE
Calc -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.774%
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.774%
Diff 0.00% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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