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Optimizer sensitivity analysis:Incr. aggregate alpha vs. partisan alpha

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 12:50 PM
Original message
Optimizer sensitivity analysis:Incr. aggregate alpha vs. partisan alpha
Edited on Fri Jul-01-05 01:26 PM by TruthIsAll
The exit poll response optimizer has found that the minimum
feasible alpha (K/B) required to satisfy WPE constraints is
1.155, not 1.12 as stated by E-M.

Since 1.155 is a minimum (we do not know the exact value),
this sensitivity analysis looks at .01 increments in aggregate
alpha above 1.155 to see the effects on the five partisan
precinct groupings, specifically on Kerry's vote percentages
and alphas.

The sensitivity analysis indicates that as aggregate alpha
increases, High and Moderate Bush precinct alphas also
increase. The fitted linear curves for these two group have
slopes of .1238 and .0224, respectively.

On the other hand, non-partisan, High and Moderate Kerry
precincts have near-zero slope.

I leave it to the quants to draw any conclusions.

The corresponding graph image is in post #1. 




EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL						
7/1/05 1:34 PM						
						
OBJECTIVE:						
Determine partisan precinct quintile K/B for .01 increments of
aggregate K/B (alpha)above minimum feasible alpha (1.155)
required to satisfy precinct WPE's.


Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         	
1- Response rates:48-58%			
2- Kerry 20% quintile 2-party vote			
3- Alpha (K/B): range from 1.155 to 1.23				
4- WPE:provided by E-M						
						
VOTE	Mil.	Pct (Input)				
Kerry 	59.027	48.76%				
Bush	62.029	51.24%				
Total	121.056					

POLL	Mil.	Pct				
Kerry 	63.127	52.15%				
Bush	57.929	47.85%				
						
Bush-recorded	51.24%					
----------------------------------------------------						
		K/B (alpha) sensitivity analysis				
Aggregate	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
						
k/b	1.155	1.500	1.156	1.173	1.098	0.996
Kerry	52.15%	25.0%	42.3%	53.5%	63.0%	82.2%
ln a	0.144	0.405	0.145	0.159	0.094	-0.004
						
						
k/b	1.160	1.662	1.156	1.173	1.095	0.996
Kerry	52.15%	20.1%	42.2%	53.4%	65.2%	81.3%
ln a	0.148	0.508	0.145	0.160	0.091	-0.004
						
						
k/b	1.170	1.746	1.191	1.166	1.084	0.997
ln a	0.157	0.557	0.175	0.154	0.081	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	18.4%	34.9%	55.5%	72.9%	88.6%
						
						
k/b	1.180	1.764	1.236	1.154	1.082	0.997
ln a	0.166	0.568	0.212	0.143	0.079	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	18.1%	28.9%	59.4%	74.5%	90.0%
						
						
k/b	1.190	1.769	1.275	1.147	1.082	0.997
ln a	0.174	0.570	0.243	0.137	0.079	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	18.0%	25.2%	62.1%	74.8%	90.4%

						
						
k/b	1.200	1.805	1.305	1.145	1.080	0.997
ln a	0.182	0.590	0.266	0.135	0.077	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	17.4%	23.1%	62.8%	76.8%	92.4%
						
						
k/b	1.210	2.041	1.305	1.153	1.074	0.997
ln a	0.191	0.713	0.266	0.142	0.071	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	14.6%	23.1%	60.0%	83.0%	99.6%


k/b	1.220	2.360	1.305	1.152	1.074	0.997
ln a	0.199	0.858	0.266	0.142	0.071	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	12.4%	23.1%	60.1%	83.0%	99.6%

						
k/b	1.230	2.676	1.305	1.152	1.074	0.997
ln a	0.207	0.984	0.266	0.141	0.071	-0.003
Kerry	52.15%	11.0%	23.1%	60.2%	83.0%	99.6%

---------------------------------------------------



EXIT POLL RESPONSE (input)						
Aggregate	53.0%	R				
Kerry/Bush	1.155	(alpha)
This is minimum alpha required to satisfy WPE/partisanship
constraints.						

PROBABILITY						
Bush vote gain	1.59E-11					
 1 in	62,953,509,332					
Kerry > 50% vote	100.0%					
 1 in	1					
						
PARTISAN ALPHA						
Kerry	1.062					
Bush	1.186					
						
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS						
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	
						
KERRY WIN%						
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%	
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	48%	48%	48%	48%	48%	
Max	58%	58%	58%	58%	58%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	
Max	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	
						
WPE						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
------------------------------------------------						
		OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY				
						
		Vote Pct	Votes (millions)	
	Poll	Vote	Diff	Poll	Vote	Diff 
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	63.127	59.027	-4.100
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	57.929	62.029	4.100
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.199	-3.002	-8.201
						
Pship	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Vote	3.874	40.191	52.296	15.979	8.716	121.056
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%	100.0%
						
RESP.	50.0%	56.0%	51.0%	50.0%	58.0%	53.0%
Dev	-3.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-3.0%	5.0%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	1.500	1.156	1.173	1.098	0.996	1.155
Dev	29.9%	0.1%	1.5%	-4.9%	-13.7%	0.0%
ln a	0.405	0.145	0.159	0.094	-0.004	0.144

VOTE						
Kerry	0.77	15.76	25.73	9.59	7.18	59.027
Pct	20.0%	39.2%	49.2%	60.0%	82.3%	48.76%
						
Bush	3.10	24.43	26.56	6.39	1.54	62.029
Pct	80.0%	60.8%	50.8%	40.0%	17.7%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	0.97	16.98	27.95	10.06	7.16	63.127
Pct	25.0%	42.3%	53.5%	63.0%	82.2%	52.15%
						
Bush	2.91	23.21	24.34	5.92	1.55	57.929
Pct	75.0%	57.7%	46.5%	37.1%	17.8%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	15.0%	35.3%	44.8%	57.1%	82.5%	45.03%
Bush	85.0%	64.7%	55.2%	42.9%	17.5%	54.97%

VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.10
						
WPE						
Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.774%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.774%
Diff	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. THE GRAPH
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-03-05 04:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. GRAPH: Sensitivity of Kerry Pct and aggregate WPE to K/B (alpha)
Edited on Sun Jul-03-05 04:15 AM by TruthIsAll
Note: Only alpha > 1.154 is feasible (satisfies aggregate and partisanship WPE's)

Image
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 05:45 PM
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2. Excellent work, reccomending and passing it on.
:kick:
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 10:15 PM
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3. kick.nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 11:12 PM
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4. Well, well, well--Kick
:kick:
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-03-05 03:39 AM
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5. Oh my ..... kick......nt
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 08:05 PM
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7. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 10:38 PM
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8. Kicking for truth, justice, and TIA's invaluable work.
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-26-05 03:48 PM
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9. Kickin' for the Invaluable TIA !
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dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-26-05 09:48 PM
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10. Kick for TIA.
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:30 AM
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11. kick nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 12:53 AM
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-29-05 06:28 AM
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13. kick
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