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To match E-M WPE, alpha must = 1.155. That's 1 in 63 billion odds

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 07:22 PM
Original message
To match E-M WPE, alpha must = 1.155. That's 1 in 63 billion odds
Edited on Tue Jun-14-05 07:24 PM by TruthIsAll
That's 1 in 63 billion odds for Bush to go from 47.84% to
51.23%

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/14/05 8:21 PM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a targetKerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.							
						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote                               
                 							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							
							
							
.	VOTE % 	EXIT POLL	DEV				
Kerry 	48.77%	52.16%	-3.39%				
Bush	51.23%	47.84%	3.39%				
Actual Bush	51.23%						
							
Probability	1.59E-11						
 1 IN	62,950,429,501						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.155						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	41%	59%	75%		
Max	25%	41%	59%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	55%	54%	51%	54%	52%		
Max	57%	56%	53%	56%	54%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.16%	48.77%	-3.39%		63.11	59.01	-4.10
Bush	47.84%	51.23%	3.39%		57.89	61.99	4.10
							
							
CATEG.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
PctWtd	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
RESP.	55.9%	54.5%	51.4%	54.6%	52.0%		53.0%
Dev	2.9%	1.5%	-1.6%	1.6%	-1.0%		
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.52	1.15	1.18	1.09	1.00		1.16
Dev	31.5%	-0.4%	1.9%	-5.2%	-13.8%		
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.3%	40.6%	48.1%	62.4%	78.5%		48.77%
Bush	80.7%	59.4%	51.9%	37.6%	21.5%		51.23%
							
POLL 							
Kerry	24.3%	43.7%	52.4%	65.3%	78.4%		52.16%
Bush	75.7%	56.3%	47.6%	34.7%	21.6%		47.84%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	19.3%	40.6%	48.1%	62.4%	78.5%		48.77%
							
ALPHA	1.52	1.15	1.18	1.09	1.00		1.16
AvgDev	31%	0%	2%	-5%	-14%		
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	22	226	277	90	47		663
Pct	55.9%	54.5%	51.4%	54.6%	52.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	99	145	59	37		345
Pct	24.3%	43.7%	52.4%	65.3%	78.4%		52.16%
Bush	17	127	132	31	10		318
Pct	75.7%	56.3%	47.6%	34.7%	21.6%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	18	189	263	75	43		587
Pct	44.1%	45.5%	48.6%	45.4%	48.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	2	70	115	44	34		265
Pct	12.9%	37.0%	43.6%	58.8%	78.7%		44.96%
Bush	15	119	148	31	9		323
Pct	87.1%	63.0%	56.4%	41.2%	21.3%		55.04%
							
							
TOTAL VOTES							
Kerry	8	169	260	103	71		610
Pct	19.3%	40.6%	48.1%	62.4%	78.5%		48.77%
Bush	32	246	280	62	19		640
Pct	80.7%	59.4%	51.9%	37.6%	21.5%		51.23%
							
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.75	16.32	25.15	9.96	6.84		59.01
Bush	3.13	23.86	27.12	6.01	1.87		61.99
Diff	-2.38	-7.54	-1.97	3.95	4.97		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.94	17.54	27.37	10.43	6.83		63.11
Bush	2.93	22.63	24.90	5.54	1.88		57.89
Diff	-1.99	-5.09	2.47	4.89	4.94		5.22
							
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-61.4%	-18.8%	-3.8%	24.7%	57.1%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-51.4%	-12.7%	4.7%	30.6%	56.8%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
k/b	Kerry	WPE	Prob.	1 IN			
1.00	48.77%	0.01%	5.03E-01	2			
1.02	49.19%	-0.85%	2.04E-01	5			
1.04	49.62%	-1.70%	4.81E-02	21			
1.06	50.04%	-2.55%	6.23E-03	160			
1.08	50.47%	-3.40%	4.28E-04	2,334			
1.10	50.90%	-4.25%	1.53E-05	65,300			
1.12	51.32%	-5.11%	2.81E-07	3,555,747			
1.14	51.78%	-6.02%	1.79E-09	559,644,344			
1.15	51.99%	-6.45%	1.33E-10	7,521,468,533			
1.16	52.21%	-6.87%	8.36E-12	119,593,696,538			
1.17	52.42%	-7.29%	4.44E-13	2,250,674,476,447			
							
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. Just about the odds of of a snowball's chance in hell I think? n/t
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