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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 03:48 PM
Original message
What are the odds?
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 04:26 PM by TruthIsAll
1. 42 of 50 states deviating to Bush from the exit polls?

1 in 1,718,869
=1-BINOMDIST(41,50,0.5,TRUE)


2. ALL 22 states in the Eastern time zone deviating to Bush from the exit polls?

1 in 4,194,304
=BINOMDIST(22,22,0.5,FALSE)


3. Bush going from 48-51% in the National exit poll to 51-48% in the vote?

1 in 696,717,814
=NORMDIST(48/99,51/99,0.01/1.96, TRUE)


4. 16 of 50 states deviating to Bush beyond the exit poll MoE, none to Kerry?

1 in 19,083,049,268,519
=1-BINOMDIST(15,50,0.025,TRUE)



5. 86 of 88 touchscreens flipping Kerry votes to Bush?
1.23689E-23 =BINOMDIST(86,88,0.5,FALSE)
2.84343E-25 =BINOMDIST(87,88,0.5,FALSE)
3.23117E-27 =BINOMDIST(88,88,0.5,FALSE)
..........
1.26565E-23

1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000



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Aussie_expat Donating Member (124 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 04:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. WOW ......
If you would have only posted this valuable information months ago.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I did. Where were you?
.
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uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. Think that was sarcasm
Aussie expat-make sure you use the sarcasm smilie next time. :sarcasm:

At least I'm assuming it was sarcasm. If it were me, it would've been sarcasm. I hope it was sarcasm.
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Aussie_expat Donating Member (124 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Thanks Uppity
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 01:21 AM by Aussie_expat
I'll remember that next time :toast:

Sincerly,

Aussie_expat
Department of Redundancy Department
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
3. I haven't been posting in a while, but I was posting like mad last
Novemeber & December (when this Election Results Forum saved my sanity) and I can hereby attest, with my hand on - well, my copy of Howard Zinn's "A People's History of the United States" - that TruthIsAll has been posting stats on the impossibility of a * win since sometime on, I think, November 3rd, 2004. Go TIA!

:kick:
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. Yes but Iraqis are coming to Ohio to study democracy ......
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 04:30 PM by Botany
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dogday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:29 PM
Response to Original message
5. And everyone is just hiding under a rug
noone comes forward with any facts or figures about the election....
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
6. Could you educate us just a little about the general assumptions here?
I trust you and all . . . . I'm just curious. What are these BINOMDIST, NORMDIST; different kinds of distribtions? What's the stuff in parantheses?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. No assumptions, patrice. Just facts.
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:57 PM by TruthIsAll
BINOMDIST and NORMDIST are Excel probability distribution functions.

The data observations are input into the functions to calculate the probabilities. Just type the formulas exactly as you see them into a cell.

While in Excel, you can get Help on the underlying mathematics.

Here is a simple example:
What are the odds of 10 coin flips all coming up heads?
That's 10 trials and 10 successes, each with a .5 probability.

In excel, enter the following:
=binomdist(10,10,.5,false)

The probability is 0.000976563, or 1 in 1024

Now what is the probability that ALL 22 states in the Eastern time zone would deviate to Bush from the exit polls to the vote?
I already showed you that.



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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Thanks, I will try this!
. . . after I go out and whack the weeds around my roses.
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Andromeda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
7. You have worked very hard...
posting the mathematical probabilities of a Bush defeat and I think your conclusions are amazing.

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Andromeda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
8. This is just totally amazing.
What's even more surprising is that when you do the figures it's very clear that Bush didn't win.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
12. kick.nt
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
14. kick
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. kick
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. kick
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