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EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:08 AM
Original message
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 01:33 AM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL

			
Objective: 
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.					
					
In this run, the TARGET GOAL was to match Bush's 51.25%
2-party vote.
				
Kerry won the exit poll with 52.14%.					

Key results: 
1) The output response curve is an inverted U skewed to Bush
partisanship precincts. The response curve interval was
constrained to [50%-60%] for this run.  

50.0%	56.2%	53.6%	50.0%	50.0%

2) Bush needed to win 55.21% of refusers as he only won 47.86%
of responders.					
					
					
Precinct Range Variables:					

1) Response Rates are constrained to equal the input weighted
average within the (Low, High) range					

2) Kerry win percentages: constrained within precinct interval
(Min, Max)

3) Alpha:  1.12 weighted average. 				

						
					
Input Constraints:

WPE constrained to match E-M		

Response Ranges	
Low 	50%
High	60%					
Avg 	53.6%
Alpha 1.120			


Output:

Bush%			
Respond 47.86%		
Refuse  55.21%		


Precincts	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry	
1250		40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry win%					
	Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%
	Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%
-6.77%	WPE 	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%


48.2%	Kerry	8%	25%	53%	71%	100% < Kerry win pcts
1.12	Alpha	1.85	1.15	1.09	1.04	1.00 < K/B response ratio
						
53.6%	Resp%	50.0%	56.2%	53.6%	50.0%	50.0% < response curve
670	Resp	20	233	289	82	45 < total responders
						
345	K Resp 	3	68	168	61	45 < Kerry responders
325	B Resp	17	165	122	21	0 < Bush responders

52.14%K Resp	14.2%	29.2%	57.9%	74.1%	99.7% < Kerry exit
poll%
47.86%B Resp	85.8%	70.8%	42.1%	25.9%	0.3% < Bush exit
						
265	K Ref	1	40	122	56	45 < Kerry Refusals
315	B Ref 	19	141	128	26	0 < Bush refusals
						
609	TotalK 	4	109	290	117	90 < Total Kerry Vote
641	TotalB 	36	306	250	48	0 < Total Bush vote
						
51.25% B Total	90.9%	73.9%	46.3%	28.8%	0.1% < Bush Vote
48.75% K Total	9.1%	26.1%	53.7%	71.2%	99.9% < Kerry vote
						
-2.50% Kv-Bv	-81.7%	-47.7%	7.4%	42.4%	99.7% <Vote margin
4.28%	 Kp-Bp	-71.7%	-41.6%	15.9%	48.3%	99.4% <exit margin
-6.78% WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3% < within precinct
error
						
47.86% B Exit%	85.8%	70.8%	42.1%	25.9%	0.3% < Bush exit
poll
55.21% B Ref%	95.9%	77.8%	51.2%	31.8%	0.0% < Req. Bush
refusal
						
-6.77% WPE 	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3% < Target WPE
-0.01% Tol	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:19 AM
Response to Original message
1. I look forward to the colloquy! KICK-Recommend
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expatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. Actually, this is what the ACCEPTED explanation has been all along....
that Kerry voters were more likely to take part in the exit poll.... which could be logical _IF_ a similar bias existed in previous "throw the bum out" races, successful or unsuccessful. Were Clinton voters more likely to participate in exit polls in 1992? Dole voters in 1996?

The accepted explanation IS plausible... they come to vote with a grievance so they are more willing to want to communicate that grievance. Don't flame me too much for accepting the accepted explanation.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
3.  So Bush won 55% of refusers and 47% of responders? Get real.
Do you know how to spell implausible?

Do you know the odds?

Do you know...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:53 AM
Response to Original message
4. Here is how Kerry won 52% of the 2-party vote
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 01:57 AM by TruthIsAll
Input Constraints:Output Vote			
Kerry	52.00%		
Bush	48.00%		

Response Range	
Low 	50%		
High	60%					
Avg 	53.6%		
Alpha (K/B )	1.120

Exit Poll
Kerry	55.39%		
Bush	44.61%		

MinK	0%					
MaxK	100%		

Bush %			
Respond	44.61%		
Refuse	51.90%		




Precincts	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry	
1250		40	415	550	165	90
	Kerry win%					
	Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%
	Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%
-6.77%	WPE 	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%


51.5%	Kerry	7%	25%	59%	80%	100%
1.12	Alpha	1.94	1.16	1.08	1.04	1.00
						
53.6%	Resp%	50.0%	57.2%	50.4%	57.8%	50.0%
670	Resp	20	237	272	95	45
						
367	K Resp 	3	67	172	79	45
303	B Resp	17	170	100	16	0
55.39%	K Resp	13.6%	28.4%	63.3%	83.3%	99.7%
44.61%	B Resp	86.4%	71.6%	36.7%	16.7%	0.3%
						
283	K Ref	1	38	147	53	45
297	B Ref 	19	140	121	16	0
						
650	TotalK 	3	105	319	133	90
600	TotalB 	37	310	221	32	0
						
48.00%	B Total	91.4%	74.7%	40.9%	19.7%	0.2%
52.00%	K Total	8.6%	25.3%	59.1%	80.3%	99.8%
						
4.00%	Kv-Bv	-82.7%	-49.3%	18.1%	60.7%	99.7%
10.77%	Kp-Bp	-72.7%	-43.2%	26.6%	66.6%	99.4%
-6.77%	WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%
						
44.61%	B Exit%	86.4%	71.6%	36.7%	16.7%	0.3%
51.90%	B Ref%	96.4%	78.7%	45.3%	23.7%	0.0%
						
-6.77%	WPE 	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%
0.00%	Tol	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
5. OPTIMIZATION: NO CONSTRAINTS ON RESPONDERS (0-100%)
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 11:57 AM by TruthIsAll
Why did all those Bush Voters in the MOST PARTISAN  Bush
precincts vanish when they were asked to respond to the exit
poll?

Must have been very shy - or in a rush to get to the
bathrooms. 

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL				
				
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.				
				
TARGET INPUT				
Bush 	51.20%			
Kerry	48.80%			
				
Precinct Range Variables:				
1-Kerry win percentages constrained to the precinct range
(Min, Max)				
2-Alpha (K/B response rate) constrained to the weighted
average 				
3-WPE across precincts constrained to match response data				
				
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS				
								
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 							
1.120	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )							
								
1250	Precincts	Strong Bush	 Strong Kerry			
	Kerry	40	415	540	165	90		
	Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
	Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
								
-6.77%	WPE  	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%		

								
								
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT								
								
Precinct		40	415	540	165	90		Avg
Response:		6.9%	60.0%	38.6%	68.6%	98.9%		53.0%
								
Alpha(K/B):		2.46	1.12	1.07	1.07	0.93		1.12

								
Kerry wins	52.19% of exit poll responders					
Bush wins	47.81%							
Bush needs	53.77% of refusers to match his vote						
								
Target								
Kerry 48.80%							
Bush	51.20%							
								
								
	OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
								
		Strong Bush		Strong Kerry       Total			
Precincts	40	415	540	165	90	       1250

	K Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		37.6%
	K Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		57.6%

	Kerry% 3%	35%	51%	65%	93%		49.0%
	Alpha	2.46	1.12	1.07	1.07	0.93		1.12
								
	Resp%	6.9%	60.0%	38.6%	68.6%	98.9%		53.0%
	Resp	3	249	208	113	89		663
								
	K Resp 	0	97	114	79	77		367
	B Resp	3	152	95	34	12		295
	K Resp	6.4%	39.0%	54.6%	69.9%	86.5%		52.2%
	B Resp	93.6%	61.0%	45.4%	30.1%	13.5%		47.8%
								
	K Ref	0	52	158	31	1		243
	B Ref 	37	114	174	20	0		345
								
	TotalK 	1	149	272	110	78		610
	TotalB 	39	266	268	55	12		640
								
	B Total	98.6%	64.0%	49.7%	33.1%	13.4%		51.2%
	K Total	1.4%	36.0%	50.3%	66.9%	86.6%		48.8%
								
	Kv-Bv	-97.1%	-28.1%	0.7%	33.8%	73.2%		-2.4%
	Kp-Bp	-87.1%	-21.9%	9.1%	39.7%	72.9%		4.4%
	WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.8%
								
	B Exit%	93.6%	61.0%	45.4%	30.1%	13.5%		47.8%
	B Ref%	98.9%	68.6%	52.3%	39.5%	0.0%		53.8%
								
	WPE  	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%		-6.77%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. THE GRAPH
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:16 PM
Response to Original message
7. More from the TIA Optimizer (Total-Instant-Analysis)
Version 1.0.1

System required: an open mind & a commitment to securing Voting Rights through Election Fraud expoosure.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 01:07 AM
Response to Original message
8. kick.nt
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